The bear case against Apple; what could go wrong

Invisible Shield for Apple iPhone 4!“Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with a long history of bearish Apple predictions chose an odd day to make what he calls the ‘bear case [for] a darling among buyside investors,'” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “Apple was trading at record highs for the third day in a row Monday when Sacconaghi offered his clients these bullet points:”

• Apple’s market cap is too large for it to outperform, and its image has migrated from underdog to Silicon Valley bully, which will increasingly pit competitors against it.
• Increased regulatory scrutiny threatens to undermine Apple’s powerful iOS ecosystem.
• Sustained growth in iPhones will inevitably lead to margin pressure.
• Near-term expectations for iPhone and iPad units are getting heady, risking disappointment.
• Apple insistence on retaining cash points to a risk of the company squandering it on a flawed acquisition.

Elmer-Dewitt reports, “In the end, the analyst seems unconvinced by his own analysis.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

33 Comments

  1. Forgeting that Apple has not even begun to fill iPhone orders let alone customers developing new productivity apps for iPad, I have one client that will use at least 100 iPad for Home Builders to manage projects but there are now another 1500 API’s developers are only just getting their hands on. Suggest Bear clients move on, this guy has no idea and has Windows mates.

  2. Apple’s cash pile… What are they planning to do with this? Whatever it is it must be huge!

    Travelling with an iPhone and battling with the difficulties of getting SIMs with data allowances makes me wish that Apple would buy telcos in every country in europe and abolish roaming charges. They would win large chunks of the business and upper income markets immediately!

  3. @applejack:

    You’re right, our current problems can all be traced to 1981 in some fashion. But, even the ford and carter administrations were ‘drinking the kool aid’ of deregulatory efforts in the late 70’s recession. But they never really went through with it.

    The GOP went on steroids from 2001-2007 when they had complete control, and I think that’s why everyone is pointing to this period. I’ve found it interesting that the words liberal and conservative have lost all meaning in the last 30 years. When Democrats (liberals) are in power they balance the budget, pay down the debt, trim spending, and spend liberally on helping people. When Republicans (conservatives) are in power they spend like drunken sailors, explode the debt and deficit, increase spending on everything that helps themselves, and blame the democrats for it.

    here’s some numbers, in case anyone has a problem with that:

    total national debt from 1837-1981(andrew jackson paid off the original so we start from there): 909 billion

    national debt in 1990 (Reagan and 1 year of GHWB): 3.206 trillion

    percentage increase: 352%

    Debt in 2000: (2 years on GHWB 8 Years Clinton): 5.628 trillion
    debt when clinton took office (1993): 4.177 trillion
    debt in 1998 when the debt reduction act was passed: 5.776 trillion
    total reduction by end of term: -5.6%, fulfillment of debt obligation term= 10 years.

    National debt when bush took office (Jan 2001): 5.628 trillion
    National debt when he left (Jan 20th 2009): approx. 11.5 trillion
    (the numbers only go to december of each year, and don’t include the first month so tarp round 2 was added by me and may not be correct)

    here’s the thing, if the people who are supposed to be ‘conservative’ spend like crazy, borrow a ton of money, and bankrupt the country inside of a decade, why in the world would we want them to be back in charge? it make no sense.

  4. sorry, forgot to include current numbers:

    current us national debt:

    11.9 trillion. Current us debt ceiling 14 trillion, current possible obligations 12.4 trillion.

    debt held by public: 8.4 trillion, intergovernmental holdings 4 trillion.

    current cash flow as of may 2010: 81 trillion.

    source: treasurydirect.gov

  5. R2 you are wrong. Only because every one is bullish on Apple does not have to mean something os wrong with that. It’s actually very possible that everything is clear and bright.

    Some times a bright sky is just that, a bright sky.

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