“In other words, in Forrester’s opinion, the 2 million iPads Apple sold in April and May were a fluke. It will be lucky sell 1.5 million between June and December — or fewer than 215,000 per month,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “‘Consumers didn’t ask for tablets,’ she points out in her summary. ‘In fact, Forrester’s data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad.'”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: We addressed this one already yesterday: “Oh, puleeze, Apple alone will sell way more than 3.5 million iPads in 2010 and Forrester’s 2015 number [20.4 million units] is ludicrously, ridiculously, laughably, unbelievably low. So many just don’t get it! It continues to amaze us.”
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]
Forrester is worse than a paid political announcement. Even the most basic research would have given her a 5-6 million iPad minimum…. FUD because there is no competition on iPad and it will be easy to upgrade like the iPhone.
Might even see a six month upgrade cycle for this new computer category success.
Really we have not even begun to appreciate what Apple has up its sleeve, all of which is coordinated and integrated into one functional system….. Android will not be able to sustain the pace as it fractures into many non-upgradable pieces….. hopefully to keep the competition sharp they will figure out how to solve the integration and software update problem that leads to a dead end for Android now….. Apple is best when they are pushed…. thanks Google for that.
hmmm…that should read
Sarah Rotman Epps = the new Laura Goldman
…for those of you too tired from a stressful work week to get it
So Apple will sell 3.5M iPads and all other manufactures will sell zero.
Maybe he is right after all
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MDN magic word is “reached”, as in Apple has already “reached” 3.5 M iPads sold. :-0
I know researchers at Forrester. They receive bonuses on the number of mentions in the press their articles produce. Articles like this are their marketing campaign. Take it for what it is – a piece designed to grab attention.
@Macromancer:
I agree that many people, like you, have envisioned a “tablet” computer for years-witness all of the half-ass versions out there. I know you know this, but what Apple did was expand the possibilities of what a tablet can do, and in doing so, opened up the market to the vast majority of non-techies/gadget freaks who never thought of owning something like it before.
As mentioned above, I’m sure many people would only have wanted a bigger, stronger horse that didn’t eat as much, or make as much of a mess all the time. It took Henry Ford’s vision to make the auto viable.
I think the logic used in this article is faulty in general because the “analyst” is using the past versions of the tablet and projecting sales into the future. As we know, as you’ve found out, the iPad isn’t a bigger, stronger horse, that doesn’t eat as much, as Forrester believes, it’s the “car”.
“‘Consumers didn’t ask for tablets,’ she points out in her summary. ‘In fact, Forrester’s data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad.’
Did she work for Microsoft?
The report is actually a US tablet forecast, so claims that “Apple has already sold more the 3.5M iPads worldwide” are moot.
That being said, I agree that 3.5M tablets (note: Tablets, NOT iPads) in the US for 2010 is wildly low, as a former employee of FORR I’m not quite sure how they arrived at that total, especially when most estimates for iPad alone fall between 4-10M units (ww) in 2010, not counting the Streak, Slate (?) and all the other also-ran android-based tablets that will be arriving late Q3/Q4.
Time for ForecastView to go back to the drawing board in Cambridge.
“Forrester projects plummeting iPad sales”
Eedjit!
rick:
Go to the airports for one….
Sarah Rotman Epps says, “top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad“
In other earth-shattering news, Sarah Rotman Epps discovers that the top features consumers say they want in a horse are a complete mismatch with the features of a Jeep. Thereby proving that Pintos will disappear soon.
Forester’s Sarah Rotman Epps, should be forced to put her money where her mouth is. Let’s take the bet.
Epps, you need an App – Download the Pull My Finger App.
Then flush the toilet.
I remember when the netbook was announces. The comments then were also “why!” Small screen, underpowered, runs what??
Same with mp3 plays… Hey I have a portable CD players with a pack of 4 CD.. Why do I want a pocket device that holds more? Or why do I need a CD when I have a tape player?
Or what do I need a device to to tape or play back a TV or movie on my TV? Too much of a hassle. Can do that without this device when they broadcast it! Or why record to a hard drive when I have a VCR?
A device that can hold a lot of books or documents elecronically? What wrong with a paper copy?
But It fills a need that others had bypassed or had a very expensive and or poor solution up until its release. None were great at the start but began a new way of doing things.
I am mobile most of the week. Basically out in the field. Tiny screen are a pain to look up data on. But been using my iPad with 3G to get info when out has been a WOW moment. Yea could have a laptop with a cell data connection but thats a bunch of parts so to speak. On the iPad. Its hit the home button..Click on Safari and look up… Done withing 45 seconds.Not minutes…
@ breeze
Definitely. I was in the Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Orlando airports over the past couple of weeks and saw quite a bunch of iPads. I also saw a Kindle. That is “a,” as in “exactly one,” Kindle.
I bought a grey market iPad in Hong Kong, jail broke it and have been fascinated by it. At family gatherings, which we do a lot here, I pass it around to show photos we recently shot instead of passing the digital camera around for viewing. Short video clips from my iPhone are also transferred to the iPad. People aren’t just looking at the photos but wondering what the hell type of computer it is that’s so convenient to pass around the table. Everyone’s learning to swipe and pinch photos now. The noisy, fidgety kids are now quietly playing games on it while we eat dinner at a restaurant.
The Airsharing app extends my laptop to hold my Photoshop Browser. The Synth music maker app now replaces my giant Roland Keyboard when I use Garageband.
Now I’m waiting for multi tasking to make it truly useful. Right now, I already can’t do without it. I take it to meetings for notes. The giant calculator makes life easy for the old codgers there. I create sketches with Sketchbook Pro or play pinball while waiting for my pizza. A PC guy called it useless two weeks ago when I told him I bought one. He plans to buy a slate from HP that doesn’t exist.
Oops! It’s not Air Sharing. It’s Air Display.
Just another FUD attempt to drive Apple’s stock down.
@Rick = D Bag
I spoke at an event in Seattle last week and there were several people in the audience taking notes on an iPad. At the airport I spotted 5 or 6 people at my gate reading books on thir iPad.
If you haven’t seen one in the wild, you ain’t paying attention.
“If you haven’t seen one in the wild, you ain’t paying attention.”
Word. I’ve now seen three, and I’m not really paying much mind. OTOH, or foot, it’s been what, years now?, and have still to see a Zune in use in the wild.
LOLOLOLOLOL I didn’t even read past the headline. That is the funniest sh@t that I’ve read in a long time. I guess that’s why everyone is scrambling to rush an Android tablet to market.
Once the tablet market become saturated; the sales of their toys will plummet which mirrors the iPods in the mp3 market.
From now on bing and decide. http://www.bing.com
Buster wrote:
“Sarah Rotman Epps = the new Laura Goldman”
Or K. Huberty
(Remember her $95 next-year call on AAPL at the end of 2008?)
C1:
Apropos fast horses, this should interest you:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-30685_3-20007861-264.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
Some people still live in the land of ‘Hope that Apple will Fail’ ….. Misguided twits!
I predict that only 3.5 million cars will be sold in 2010. In fact, Digital Mercenary’s data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a tractor trailer are a complete mismatch for Ferrari’s automobiles.
OMG! Are people really this clueless? And she gets paid for this too!