Google’s big tablet mistake could guarantee Apple a huge lead that it might never relinquish

Eric Jhonsa writes for The Motley Fool, “Everyone and his gadget-loving cousin seems to be arguing these days about whether the iPad will be another hit for Apple, or a dud like Apple TV”

MacDailyNews Take: See, Apple TV, having sold over 7 million units is a “dud,” but that doesn’t preclude Jhonsa from spotlighting Amazon’s Kindle like a star in entire articles about a device that will sell, according to figures quoted by Jhonsa himself: 1.7 million total units in 2009 and 2010 combined. Just to be crystal clear: According to Eric Jhonsa, 7 million units sold means Apple TV is a “dud,” but Kindle, which can’t crack 2 million over two years (despite being routinely touted by many in the media biz as a hit product), isn’t.

Amazon’s Kindle is a sham that’s continually propped up by ignorant, lazy, paid, and/or sympathetic people in the media.

Jhonsa continues, “As far as I’m concerned, Apple ensured the device’s success the day that it decided to have the iPad’s operating system be the iPhone OS rather than a modified version of its Mac OS.”

MacDailyNews Take: Technically, iPhone OS is a modified version of Mac OS X, but we think we see where Jhonsa’s going here as he gets back on track.

Jhonsa continues, “Likewise, Google ensured itself an uphill battle against Apple the day it decided to support its developing Chrome OS for the tablet market in addition to Android.”

MacDailyNews Take: Okay, now Eric’s got his feet under him.

Jhonsa continues, “The brilliance of using the iPhone OS to run the iPad was twofold. First, it makes using an iPad feel nothing like using a personal computer. Microsoft has taken the opposite tack over the years with its Tablet PC software, which does little more than tinker with its bloated, buggy Windows operating system so that it can work with a touchscreen; and the results (or lack thereof) are plain for everyone to see. Giving the iPad an interface that was built from the ground up with human fingers in mind, rather than a keyboard and mouse, means that Apple will avoid the same pitfall.”

“Secondly, choosing the iPhone OS made sure that millions of iPhone and iPod Touch owners who have built large app collections would have a strong incentive to buy an iPad. Right off the bat, these people will have a sizeable collection of software that they can port over (albeit without perfect formatting) to the device using iTunes,” Jhonsa writes. “And as millions of additional consumers buy an iPhone or iPod Touch for the first time in the coming years, this base of potential buyers will grow.”

Jhonsa writes, “Google seems to be taking a spaghetti-on-the-wall approach to the tablet market: Throw some operating systems out there, and see what sticks. Chances are that this strategy in the market’s first years — a lead that it might never relinquish.”

Full article – recommended except for the final six words of his first sentence – here.

MacDailyNews Take: After a weak, illogical start, Jhonsa finishes strong and on target!

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “JES42” for the heads up.]

50 Comments

  1. Amazon’s Kindle is a sham that’s continually propped up by ignorant, lazy, paid, and/or sympathetic people in the media.

    Reminds me of our Dear Leader here in the U.S.

  2. When the Mac first came out with the mouse and windows GUI (and MS copied it), that was the first big paradigm shift for computers – going from the command line to the GUI. I have always thought what will replace this GUI as the next big UI and now I feel that now we have the answer. The iPhone OS touch UI. I predict that in 5-10 years the old GUI will go by the wayside in favor of the touch UI.

  3. Sometimes I wonder why these anal-ysts even bother to write articles. But at least he did get to a valid point over all.

    And just because Apple views it’s Apple TV as a hobby doesn’t mean that it under performs and I think Apple will finally soon do something with it to take take advantage of it’s capability.

    I mean really, what other market is there left to conquor!

  4. @Superior Being

    “I have to tell you, you know, it’s part of reporting this case, this market, the feeling most people get when they see Amazon’s Kindle. My, I felt this thrill going up my leg. I mean, I don’t have that too often.” – Eric Jhonsa

  5. “the day that it decided to have the iPad’s operating system be the iPhone OS rather than a modified version of its Mac OS”

    Given that the iPhone came out of Apple’s tablet R&D;, not vice versa, I doubt Mac OS was ever in the running.

    And it’s time we started thinking of the iPad not as a tablet computer but as an information and entertainment appliance – that’s as reliable and easy to use as any other household appliance.

  6. @MDN Take Re: Kindles

    If your product appears on Oprah, it’s a superstar no matter how many you actually sell. That’s the rules. Don’t question them.

    It’s true for The Kindle, Obama, Pontiacs, Tom Cruise, rehab memoirs, dieting tips and most of all, Oprah.

    So until Apple TV gets it’s day in the Chicago spotlight, it will always be a second rate product compared to Kindle. Deal with it!

  7. This guy is a _writer_ for the Motley Fool?

    “As far as I’m concerned, Apple ensured the device’s success the day that it decided to have the iPad’s operating system be the iPhone OS rather than a modified version of its Mac OS.”

    “Likewise, Google ensured itself an uphill battle against Apple the day it decided to support its developing Chrome OS for the tablet market in addition to Android.”

    Don’t forget “twofold”, “thereof”, and “albeit”.

    Dear God, please bring back editors to deliver us from the evil of bad writing!

    (Yet they say the old publishing model is dead . . . )

  8. Like I’ve said before all the media set top box makers keep hoping that they can sell half the number of units as Apple as sold Apple TV units. I think the Roku box as sold the most but I don’t think all their media boxes combined would add up to more then 2 or 3 Million. The Apple TV is currently the leader in the category (dedicated Internet Media Players (excluding Game Consoles that aren’t in the category)). Apple hasn’t even really done much, if any real promotion for the Apple TV and it’s sold more then 7 Million Units, by any definition that make the Apple much more then just a base hit.

    Apple can just on keep tinkering with it’s Hobby Project the Apple TV they will develop the right formula the right balance and the perfect hardware and when they do everyone will be saying, “where did Apple come up with that idea”. Just the fact that everyone any their uncle is trying to build Apple TV knock off devices means that Apple has a winner. Might not be quit the winning formula for hugh acceptance yet, but neither was the first iPod.

  9. @Superior Being and First 2010, Then 2012:

    More hypocrisy:

    You see, unproven, unrecorded, concocted reports of racial slurs being made and routine angry answering machine messages (that every politician gets daily) which were made by a handful of crazies are to be made into huge “news” stories.

    This is done in order to tar and feather a huge group of innocent, normal, citizen protestors who mainly are interested with not saddling our great-great grandchildren with trillions in stifling debt. It also is an attempt to distract from the huge ill-effects of Obamacare that was just rammed down the country’s throat.

    These cases, routine and invented, are all to be treated as major “news,” pasted into headlines and broadcast on TV everywhere, with apologies hysterically demanded of people who did nothing wrong. But things like this aren’t, of course:

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    Selective outrage highlights your tremendous hypocrisy, Dems, Libs, and Progressives.

    http://www.zombietime.com/zomblog/?p=621

  10. What about the accelerometer. Yes the touchscreen is great, but the accelerometer is the other input device that makes the iPhone, and soon the iPad work so well. One reason the Win Tablet and other small touch OS failed is because they lacked this input device. GUI would have never taken off it only had a mouse and no keyboard. What made the iPhone OS excel where others didn’t is Apple combined the two.

  11. @superior being
    there are over 800 billionaires in the world with quite a few in this country – remember, you’re poor and your vote really doesn’t count for much regardless of who the leader is. If you work harder, get rich and powerful, you can have dinner with the candidates in the future, and call some of the shots. He may be a pawn – but he’s a way more powerful one than you are.

  12. So, the Pontiac is a huge hit and a success because it was on Oprah. In fact Oprah made Pontiac such a hugh success that GM killed the Pontiac Brand. Good thing Oprah didn’t give away Ford F150 Raptors on here show otherwise Toyota owners might have to be more concerned about being run over and squashed instead of panicking over little things like stuck accelerators, the electronics going phsyco or the breaks not working properly. Yep! good thing Oprah made Pontiac a hugh hit so, GM could sell more Pontiac cars.

  13. Can’t we just all agree that most likely in the end result when enough time has gone by we will then realize that our opinions and predictions have mattered to some but not to others and therefore we can continue to carve out sections of life that correlate to our core beliefs because we all know damn well at the end of the day, regardless of how we’ve portrayed ourselves in the past and within this forum, we shall wholeheartedly embrace the iPad and everything for which it stands?

  14. MDN:

    You are really just pathetic. you literally cannot handle an ounce of criticism directed at Apple, warranted or otherwise. You are like a petulant child who constantly acts out when it doesn’t get it’s way.

    The Kindle is a widely used and well reviewed device. Apple TV had been a joke that Apple themselves have admitted they consider a “Hobby”. It’s also been on the market for over twice as long as the kindle, is a completely different product, and since Amazon has never released sales numbers for the kindle there is no way to independantly verify the numbers you listed.

    Does that stop you from making biased and misinformed assertions that you peddle as fact and not opinion? Of course not.

    Grow up.

  15. PlayNice,

    MDN is merely pointing out the hypocrisy. Journalists, writers, pundits, and paid shills who insist on calling Apple TV a “dud” at 7 million units, but who then turn around and praise Amazon for their “hit” Kindle that can’t even move 2 million units over two years are <b>hypocrites</a>.

    Kudos to MDN for spotlighting the hypocrisy.

  16. Back on topic ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

    Competition is good. The Kindle opened the door for ebooks becoming the first well publicized product.

    The iPad will be able to sell more because it is multifunctional. Apple will be able to charge more because it is multifunctional. This is why the iPhone is a huge success.

    Google will probably make a version of the tablet too. This will keep Apple on their toes.

    Competition is good. It legitimizes the market and Apple have such a huge lead in design and apps that they can make a killing on this.

    Apple have a huge lead because

  17. I’ll restrain myself, except to say that I’ve yet to see or hear anyone that holds an opinion like the so-called Superior Being consider all the factors of that discussion, like:

    1. Human factors: Life and Quality of life.
    2. The significant correlation between healthcare and good health–and the significantly lower cost of healthcare for healthy people.

    3. Whether racial slurs or bricks thrown or shots fired or threats of asassination were ever appropriate tools for intelligent debate over an important subject.

    Any Superior Being would naturally and easily be able to factor in the financial, social and political considerations without hype or drama to arrive at the best solution — even if that solution was to do nothing.

    It is abundantly clear that if we did have any Superior Beings, they haven’t been in the U.S. Government in this past year. Or in your home.

  18. @Jen
    Clearly you are forgetting the $12.5 trillion or so of existing federal debt. Our children and their children are already saddled with an enormous debt load, most of it accumulated over the past three decades (and two administrations, in particular).

    Labeling, name calling, etc. won’t fix the problem. Neither will slavish adherence to a particular political philosophy. It is a complex problem that will require difficult and often painful solutions over many years. It will require sacrifice for the greater good. It will require self-reliance and personal responsibility. It will require intelligence, wisdom, commitment, and patience. It will require elimination of the terrible excesses stemming from greed, corruption, and waste. In other words, for the modern United States population, it would appear to require the impossible.

  19. Apple TV was held back by the lack of content. The studios insisted on charging excessively high prices for the content.

    If Apple persuades studios to offer content at sensible prices for the iPad, then the same deal should apply to Apple TV and make it much more attractive ( or make it’s successor even more attractive ).

    It remains to be seen whether the studios will have the wisdom to embrace the new opportunities offered by iPad or try again to resist what they see as a challenge posed by another new technology.

  20. Wow. When I want political debate, I go to the Daily Kos or Politico. I’m certainly not going to read political crap from a bunch of potato chip eating fat losers living in their mother’s basement.

    MDN’s hatred of all things not Apple is ridiculous. The Kindle is an excellent device that does one thing very well: allow you to read a book. Do we dismiss a Nikon D5, which does one thing extremely well–take photographs extremely well–just because the iPhone has a $25 camera attachment?

    The Kindle’s numbers are impressive in light of two things: one, some people want to read books made of dead trees, because they like the feel, and two, Americans just don’t read books as much as they did.

    I think the Kindle broke open a nascent market, that may have lead to iPad coming into existence.

  21. @ LeftCoastDude; I sorta have to take issue with you. If you believe that only 1.7 million Americans enjoy reading books, I think you’re wrong. In fact I think the 1.7 million number reflects total Kindle sales… world wide, please correct me if I’m wrong. That being said, I believe the very low number of 1.7 million reflects the notion that the kindle is not enough to goad people from desiring paper books, but by extending the paradigm to include the internet, color, movies, pictures … and all things iPad, more people will be tempted to eschew the paper products in lieu of the electronic media. Which, if true, is quite encouraging for Apple & its iPad. Oh yeah BTW this is an Apple Fan site. We just root for the home team. Go Apple, Go Stevie.

  22. When you’re selling stuff, numbers are everything. The “better product” is a good thing to be, but it doesn’t guarantee success in any particular market.

    Beta was, and is, superior to VHS – but it totally failed in the consumer market despite lots of sales; VHS had far more sales. (Only the advent of digital is forcing it out of the professional market.)

    The Newton was superior to the Palm Pilot. WAY superior. But the Palm ruled the market because of numbers.

    If the number of sales compared to the potential market is low, the product is a flop. Kindle’s sales numbers are very low as regards its potential market – it’s a flop. And, honestly, AppleTV’s numbers are far lower than they should be for its potential market – calling it a flop is only premature because the market continues to change (adoption of digital TV and HD-compatible home theater is still in progress). But on pure numbers, frankly, it’s currently a flop.

  23. OK, since the MDN wing-nut faction wants to throw politics into this, I’m game:

    modern US conservatives are like neutered dogs; even though they have no nuts, they still want to screw everything they see.

    You will eventually calm down and come to your senses… I hope.

  24. @superior being: Agreed!

    @ Another A_Hole: yes, you are! Your choice of language and self-characterization say much.

    OTOH, I could actually use less political diatribe from all sides, too. So, I would say, can’t we just talk Mac?

  25. @GeeOne: and I guess we could say modern US liberals are just socialist pimps for wards of the state bent on class warfare and the destruction of American institutions. Maybe we can hope that they will also come to their senses.

    Margaret Thatcher said it well: “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”

  26. @A (supposedly) thinking refugee;
    your point would have more credibility if i hadn’t heard the Exact same talking points on Fox News and Rush Limbaugh on any given day for the past year. Try again, this time with some originality.

  27. @A Thinking Refugee in Kalifornia
    “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”

    Really? And I guess that the bail-out of capitalist banks, begun by the failed Bush admin, had nothing to do with our problems?

    Or their complete lack of financial oversight or restraint as they took the biggest surplus in history & proceeded to bankrupt the country.

    And as for “safe”, don’t forget that the worst attack ever on US soil happened under Bush.

    If we have problems – look to them – they caused them & they need by held accountable and tried for them.

  28. MDN: for Pete’s sake, mark your _whole_ comments/takes with a different font style so we know which part is original and which is yours. Right now it is a spaghetti. How many articles one would have to submit to gat such wish granted?

  29. I think the wingnuts are conveniently forgetting that idiot Bush cost the US dearly in blood and treasure by taking the US into a needless and unprovoked war in Iraq to assuage his Texas ego.

    Bush also failed to get Bin Laden when he was cornered at Tora Bora.

    Bush squandered the surplus he was given and was barely able to string 2 coherent sentences together.

    Bush allowed 911 to happen on his watch.

    Bush is a perfect example of mindless right wing thinking.

    Now the mindless right wingers want to run on repealing and replacing healthcare for all. Good luck with that approach.

    This blog should be about Apple and not about politics.

    But, right wingers seem not to be able to figure that out, just like Bush.

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