• The iPad launch in March
• New iPhones in June
Elmer-DeWitt reports, “Huberty offers her usual three scenarios — bull (with three possibilities), base and bear — but leans heavily toward the bull, describing three paths to share prices as much as 115% above Apple’s closing price Thursday of $202 per share.”
Huberty’s scenarios for AAPL share price by 2012:
• Bull 1: $435 per share
• Bull 2: $358 per share
• Bull 3: $325 per share
• Base: $250 per share
• Bear: $180 per share
Full article here.
She’s as bad as Dvorak.
if they launch search engine and it becomes a success (~50% shore), Apple stock will reach $700
Ever since her major blunder Huberty started doing her homework better…That doesn’t mean she’s any smarter, but…her outlook regardless jives with the reality of Apple’s stock price and is not really far fetched. 325 this time next year is a moderate prediction.
I’d expect it to get creamed if the market goes bear… like before. Maybe not $78, but close to $100. Everyone that is heavy is going to dump Apple to recoup losses in other stocks. It seems like there is a pattern of folks using Apple just for profits, and then beating it down again all at once.
$435? Possible I guess, but we were supposed to be at $300 already now if you listen to the analysts. Apple might claw its way to $250 or $275 by the end of the year, then down again as always, and then maybe fight its way up to $300 or $325, but thats way too far in advance (2012) to predict. Too many outside factors to factor in that are impossible to factor in now.
So somewhere between $180.00 and $435.00 in two years huh? What a GREAT analyst this gal is! Sheesh!
@Steve516
There was no reason for the stocks to drop so low… They saw the market turn.. so they manipulated the crap out of it since it was already at $200 a share.. then shortsell till it hit 78.. then bought in as much as possible to bring it back up to 200 again…. its all manipulation.
My humble snapshot.
Take the price minus $42 of cash.Now assume a $12 eps, and and 15 multiple, should give you the worst case scenario. Therefore 12 times 15 plus 42 equals 222 as a minimum but I expect higher prices. In the meantime, I am selling out of the money puts for some extra income.
ALL GUESSES ARE LOW IF YOU DON’T COUNT ALL OF APPLE’S MARKETS!
For Example: Where is the 1 Billion Dollar Server Farm revenue? You know, Cloud Computing, media streaming source and storage, …
If the iPad takes 1/3 of those limited old school PC netbook sales, what would that be?
Or what if APPLE STARTS LETTING USERS USE iChat ON THOSE NEW DEVICES?
About that server farm that Apple started building last August. Yes, the landscaping and parking lot isn’t ready yet. (That takes less than a weeks at the most people.) Do you really think that Apple didn’t need to get this server farm up and running for that NEW iPad release. You all know that the iPad will need the remote storage, cloud computing services, media storage and streaming, … of that NEW BILLION DOLLAR SERVER FARM.
@Jersey_Trader
As you have seen and we all have seen… it almost makes no difference how apple does. They could completely whipe out the netbook sales and analysts would still try to find something wrong and short sell the crap out of apple. I think eventually though.. people will see how it really is and not follow the BS of analysts and the stocks will go much higher. We have already seen 215 a share. I will be estatic to see 250+
What will the stock value jump when Apple makes a Windows version of iChat and puts the user facing camera in the devices? (It is already in the OS code and the camera cutout in in the frame of the iPad.) What is the value of the video conferencing market? Wouldn’t you need to have a huge server farm to stream those connections? What is the halo from iChat done right?
if we are fortunate we should be getting 30-50 PE like in the old days before the recession. That would make this stock 300-500 range.
On April 22nd, 2009, about 10 months ago, Huberty issued a report with a price target of $100 to $105. The stock was trading at $121 at the time and she forecast that by April 10 this year it would be down 14%.
Graph and discussion of her EPS error is at:
http://blog.asymco.com/2010/02/26/kathryn-huberty-predicts-apple-performance/
AAPL is just like Al Gore’s glacier…it ain’t mov’in.
AAPL will always be used to level out the many less-performing companies across portfolios. It’s a good problem to have, but AAPL will only trickle up regardless of their consistent revolutionary pushes of the envelope.
Jobs is not going to offer dividends, etc., because he knows that as soon as Apple were to make a misstep, all investor loyalty will jump ship in a heartbeat. Truth is, investors don’t really care about the company Apple, and therefore, Apple doesn’t really care about investors.
The truth hurts. Ironically, M$’s dividends are the only thing keeping their investors from jumping ship as they hang onto the loose rock at the top of the waterfall.
This economy isn’t going anywhere. Too big of a hole to dig out after the financial markets collapsed. It’s going to be another year at least before a real recovery gets going. AAPL will continue to get stalled by the overall broader market as people leverage it against their weaker securities.
Just my opinion, but it seems closer to reality than the fairy tale land that these analysts are predicting.
You are correct jtc about the talking heads. (The ones that are now using the MacBook Pros on TV.) The problem that they will have is the rapid growth of Apple’s market share. They will look more and more like idiots this year as the try to step on AAPL stock.
Think about the multi-release of the iPad this year. First without the 3G then later with the 3G. Lines around the building for days. Then releases in other countries with the same. Then later this year with iChat. These iPads are going to be everywhere and very visible!
This is Apple’s big year taking market share in several markets.
Hi Macromancer, Apple has the billions in the bank and the product that everyone is still buying in this crappy market. The 80% that are working and not buying 2nd homes, new cars, … have cash building in their banks now. (I will be paying of my wife’s car in just a few months now.) People will keep buying the best items for their families, they just are buying the big ticket items like RV’s and boats yet. You don’t need to take out a loan to get an Apple product.
@Jersey_Trader
Its definitely going to be a big year for apple. I’m more excited about the new iphone though. If the ipad can be used as a waacom tablet for the adobe products I use I’d preorder one asap if it was usable with a stylus. Sure you can draw nice things with a finger but I do see a stylus in the future.. which they already have made for the iphone a while ago for people with the sausage fingers who cant type for beans.
Also.. you kinda do need a loan to buy a mac pro.. or you just make payments on it.. Though I see your point though with that boat vs apple product loans.
Its going to be an interesting year.. but as we seen before I think they will bash the ipad as much as possible because they missed out on the stock going up and they want their share now 🙁
“but I do see a stylus in the future.. which they already have made for the iphone a while ago”
Stylus would still need pressure sensitivity to be of much use in Adobe products, for me anyway.
Hi jtc,
If the $499 iPads came with a iChat camera now, I would jump at getting 2 for my grand daughters next month. If Apple is going to play around and do this for Christmas, than I may just get 1 for my wife with the Wi-Fi and get the other 2 when they come out with built in iChat.
Hi jtc,
The Mac Pros are more for the big corporate users and I assume that is handled like any other company purchase. That is what I did when I got my last one to use as a server here at work. The iMacs are the work stations here and the iBooks are what I use here and at home now. I assume that the iPad will take over the casual use at home and on vacation soon.
Why do these talking heads think it will take 2 years to get 100% or more jump in stock price?
Did Apple stocks need 2 years in 1990, 2006, 2007, 2008, or 2009 to jump 100% or more? What were their guesses those years?
@jtc
Umm, thanks for stating the blindingly obvious. If you read my first paragraph closely, I say exactly that, without using the word “manipulation”.
When the stock was 100-something, I thought that a target of 200 was…gross.
Now they’ve been there quite some time.
@Jersey_Trader
But it takes longer to double $200 than it does to double $80 (especially when it’s so obviously undervalued at $80)
$200 seems to have been a sticking point for Apple these past few years.
As for the iPad, it may take netbook sales but it may also take Mac/iPhone/iPod touch sales.