Daring Fireball’s John Gruber “came to Macworld Expo 2010, however, not to praise the company but to probe its vulnerabilities,” Phillip Elmer-Dewitt reports for Fortune.
The problems, in the order he delivered them:
1. Steve Jobs: The pessimistic dig on Apple, says Gruber, is that it’s a supremely well-organized company organized around one irreplaceable guy. The optimistic view is that Jobs has structured it to run like his other company, Pixar, which manages to turn out hit after hit, year after year, without a charismatic celebrity leader.
2. AT&T: [Apple sticks with them because] AT&T so desperately needs the iPhone that Apple can extract far better terms from them than it ever could from Verizon. Meanwhile, however, AT&T’s service problems are draining Apple’s good will.
3. Computers: Gruber thinks he’s seen the future of computers, and it is the iPad. “It’s really, really good,” he gushed. If you are sitting on a couch and you need a computer, most people are going to reach for the iPad, not the MacBook Pro. And that puts Apple into uncharted territory. For the first time since the original Mac replaced the Apple II, it has two overlapping computer products. And although it took a few years for the corpse to grow cold, the Apple II basically died the day the Mac arrived.
4. The App Store
5. Security
6. Mobile Me: It’s great for syncing your iPhone to your Mac, but what’s the point of Mobile Me’s Web apps?
7. Back Ups: Time Capsule is the right idea, but it’s not really a solution for all those people who don’t even know they’re supposed sync their iPhones to their Macs.
8. Apple TV: Gruber is not one of those who talks about Apple TV as Steve Jobs’ one dud. He likes Apple TV, but says it has a fundamental problem: [Content or the relative lack thereof]. Hulu is a wonderful solution but when Boxee figured out a way to put it on TV, the Hulu guys freaked out. They have “this crazy brick wall in their heads,” Gruber explains, that perceives computers and TVs and two fundamentally different things. They worry about ad-supported Hulu getting on TVs when they should be worried about people bootlegging their content for free and watching it with no ads. “I don’t see,” Gruber concludes, “how Apple can get from where they are to where they need to be when they are negotiating with people that stupid.”
9. Arch Rivals: A company needs direct rivals to stay hungry, but when they get big enough they tend to run out of them… Apple’s closest rival in smartphones, Gruber maintains, is not Google (which will rake in the Web ad riches whether Android succeeds or fails), but Palm, whose WebOS he admires.
10. About Box Credits: If software is a form of art, as Apple insists it is, “artists should get to sign their work.”
Full article, with full explanations of each of the 10 points above, here.
MacDailyNews Take: Some of these are a stretch. Number 10 is seemingly there only to fulfill the promise of ten points. As for number 9, Apple has plenty of arch rivals and self-motivation; they don’t require a floundering group of castoffs with chips on their shoulders in order to motivate them. There is plainly no need for Palm’s webOS; it’s superfluous in the current marketplace; a redundancy. Unless some other company decides to junk their current OS and snaps up what’s left of the company for webOS (which we strongly suspect is the real dream of Elevation Partners), Palm has no reason to be. If not saved via a buyout, Palm is dead. Number 6 isn’t really a vulnerability on the order of, say, how the company will someday run without Steve Jobs. Number 3 is many years off. It certainly won’t happen as quickly as Mac took over from Apple II because Mac had greater capabilities than what it succeeded, not less. Unless and until iPad evolves to do everything a Mac can do and more, the Mac will not only survive, it will thrive. All that said, it’s still an interesting, thought-provoking list and therefore a recommended read.
Ha! Ha! Ha! Someone, sometimes, really needs to invent problems out of where there are none!
It’s a weak list. Guess he had to come up with something to make it slightly interesting. He should have just talked about Microsoft vs Apple 10 biggest problems and do a comparative analysis.
Definitely a stretch in parts; wasn’t the first item pretty much disproven when Jobs went on medical leave? And I still don’t see the iPad as a replacement for a laptop or desktop computer, but rather a supplement; if you’re into heavy-duty desktop publishing or audio/video editing, or you keep your family’s household/financial records, you’ll use your “regular” computer. But if all you need is something where you can surf the Web, do some light word processing or number crunching, plus maybe read a book, play games or watch a movie, you can use the iPad.
Jubei: Maybe it was too much of a challenge to limit Microsoft’s problems to 10.
From No. 6: ” . . . it took Apple 75 days to respond to a hole in Open SSL — the open-source encryption system that is supposed to protect credit card data from getting loose on the Internet — even though the vulnerability was made public last September. ‘It happens again and again,’ says Gruber. Apple is the last vendor to respond, when it ought to be the first.” (emphasis added)
Too true. Agreed about number 10, particularly since it’s not really limited to Apple. . . is it?
I have always been impressed about Steve Jobs crediting the designers and developers during his keynotes. Other companies including Microsoft should learn from Steve Jobs example.
I normally have a lot of respect for Gruber, but he’s wayyyyyy off base with #9. Apple’s real competition in the smartphone arena is coming from RIM and Google Android.
If this were a movie, and Apple was our protagonist, Palm would be the evil henchman’s comedy relief sidekick, deluded into thinking that he’s actually a worthy rival for our protagonist. He isn’t. He’s only there for laughs. He’s not remotely a serious threat.
Some of his other concerns seem off-target as well, particularly MobileMe – Apple wouldn’t put *that* much time and energy into creating it just because “that’s what the kids were talking about”. They’re far too focused for that to be remotely plausible.
Sorry, that’s number 5, not 6.
Did this guy not see what happened at Apple while Steve Jobs was sick and later home for a half year. Note 1 about “organized around one irreplaceable guy” has been disproved. As Apple spreads into multiple markets, Steve Jobs has one of the key people intro that product and it’s features during the keynotes.
Has this village idiot ever watched an Apple Keynote in the past 2 years?
Number 10 should tell you that Apple is doing pretty well.
@justme2
Come to think of it I bet your absolutely right!
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Gruber? More like grubber!
Note 5. “Security”! Again Adobe has to address the holes in Flash and this is another example of why Apple products like iPhone, iPad touch and the iPad ARE secure.
Idiot!
1. Apple did pretty good without Jobs; he’s not the only incredibly gifted person at Apple. This is an overblown worry.
2. Apple is holding out for a better negotiating position. AT&T;is investing billions to improve their network. And the longer this goes on the lower the prices will be when Verizon does come on board. Reality: not enough people are bitching about AT&T;for Apple to add Verizon yet.
3. Why is this a problem?
4. It’s new, it’s improving, Apple is being cautious. Next…
5. What’s the issue with security? I’ve been pretty happy with the security the platform. Compared to Windows, OS X is Fort Knox.
6. One of two complaints I have. Apple hasn’t figured out the cloud just yet. There is a lot of innovation that could be going on here. Missed opportunity.
7. Not a silver bullet, but it works, sometimes, and that’s better than nothing. Here is where item 6 comes into play.
8. An embarrassment. Seriously. One of my only disappointments with an Apple product. Give it a browser or give it Internet TV. Apple should be doing Boxee.
9. Palm? Seriously? Makes me laugh. Frankly, Apple’s approach to innovate and dominate or stay out of a market is unique and doesn’t fit with this logic.
10. What is he talking about?
10.
‘Problem’ #2: is only partly right, and a whole lot wrong.
Verizon uses old technology – CDMA – whereas most of the rest of the world uses some variation of GSM/GPRS, a more modern technology. My guess would be Jobs would’ve always wanted to sell it to the whole world not just the backward tech companies of the United States.
Now whether they could’ve added the option – in the same way they offer NTSC or PAL as TV playback is another story, and an interesting one.
But let’s not forget, like it or not, and the merits of either technology notwithstanding, GSM/GPRS has largely won this war and Verizon is on the side that lost.
#4… I have no idea what Gruber’s talking about. I’ve never heard any outside “pundits” complain about the App Store’s “closed”-ness. And none of the smart developers complain, they just do the work, follow the rules, and rake in the cash. As Gruber himself says, Nintendo controls their market as tightly (or tighter) than Apple. And Apple is dumping resources into the store to improve it all the time, so what would make it unsustainable at this point?
It is Apple’s control and in house approval that makes their devices and products secure. Flash should not be used and the people on the internet will have to choose to use an open SECURE standard or push away the users that use Apples devices. You know, the users that are willing to buy the best and spend their money. Isn’t that the customers that they are looking for? What is the loyalty to Adobe or Microsoft have to due with the open access of any company’s web side!
Notes 4 & 5 are a joke!
Point #3 is the one that is potentially most damning.
“…For the first time since the original Mac replaced the Apple II, it has two overlapping computer products. And although it took a few years for the corpse to grow cold, the Apple II basically died the day the Mac arrived.”
This is ridiculous. There was no overlap from Apple II to Mac. The Mac was a replacement for the II. They both were desktop computers. Their objective was the same, just the Mac was much better, a huge step forward. In short (to be redundant) a replacement.
This is not true with the iPad. While I will agree that there is significant overlap, the iPad – as it stands now – is not an all-purpose computing platform. If some of these limitations slip away over time (limited storage being a big one), then perhaps it will take significant share from the laptops.
Of course there will be many people who cannot afford both an iPad and a laptop. If their needs are light (no video editing and limited photo editing and word processing) then the Pad will be all they need.
If you need serious editing capabilities, however, you will need a full-fledged laptop. (As I said until such time as the iPad becomes more powerful.)
Ten items only? Is that all you could come up with? I’m sure Dvorak can add a few more
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” /> Let’s not count how many problems Windows has.
Apple has always had these pitiful grubby observers tell them how they are doing everything wrong and advising them what to do. It’s endless, from get out of the hardware business, to copy microsoft, to every detail of the iPhone. It’s a miracle Apple has survived while doing everything wrong.
How many $180B companies does Gruber manage?
Gruber is one of the most insightful individuals in the blogosphere, and has a pretty good finger on Apple’s pulse. I think that his “problems” are a little tongue-in-cheek…
I’m quietly taking note that almost everyone is forgetting that Apple is building a massive server farm down south somewhere that is going to result in one huge cloud being available any time now. I’ve not heard any of the so called experts showing any interest in this nor are they speculating as to what it will be useful for.
Watch for Apple to spring something on us regarding this.
Grabber must have been under the influence when he wrote his top 10 list.
Too much booze at MacWorld and not enough Jobs. (Steve)
#7: “Time Capsule is the right idea, but it’s not really a solution for all those people who don’t even know they’re supposed sync their iPhones to their Macs.”
You know, sometimes survival of the fittest is a good thing. If people are too retarded to know a damned thing about their computers or their iPhone, it’s probably best that digital documentation about their existence doesn’t survive into the future.
A weak list, but that may be the point. Apple is firing on all cylinders.
The Apple haters were out in force in the comments section.
You Know What To Do.™
@ RicMac
Nah – the site is covered up with snow right now – nothing’s happening there. Meanwhile, the NC Dept of Public Instruction is doing it’s best to eliminate content-knowledge requirements for teachers. So Apple will have to import workers as NC turns into a third-world state.
BUT when spring finally comes to NC, then it’ll be fascinating to watch what Apple unveils as the purpose for the center. Cloud based apps for iPads? (Dr.) Who knows‽
Here’s the point on MobileMe. At work I’m held captive in Lotus Notes by Windows XP. The MobileMe web apps let me sync to the outside world.
Let’s see how big a mountain each of these points can be raised to become by the blogospere..
The Microsoft Taliban are going to have a field day…
Gruber often has interesting things to add to the Apple-related blogosphere, but rather than focusing upon the glass being 99% full, he froths and hisses about the 1% he believes is missing or is not good enough. That’s just how he is.
If this is all there is to worry about? Apple really has no problems. This is a Nick picking list, because there really isn’t much you can list that apple is doing wrong.
Either he used to work for Apple as a developer, or he intimately knows someone who works for Apple as a developer. Hence, No. 10.
When you look at many major software packages (and most prominent one that comes to mind is Adobe CS), go to “About” box (in the app menu, right below the App’s name); you will often see dozens of names of developers who worked on the application.
Apple never ever does that. There is not a single name on any of Apple’s applications; not even a group. Just copyright and “all rights reserved” statement.
When one works for Apple, one develops this unique love-hate relationship with their employer. There is always that immense satisfaction for working on an extremely rewarding project, but there is also always this feeling that your employer never acknowledges your contribution in a meaningful way. When they see their colleagues’ (and competitors’) names in Photoshop or InDesign, they only get that feeling reinforced just a little bit more.
As long as they don’t have Dells problem of not been able to make money, they should be ok.
Apple will succeed or fail without any input from Gruber and so-called media gurus/bloggers like him. THAT is their #1 problem and what bugs them the most.
On 1 point I half-agree with him – the iPad is the future of computing. Imagine the original Mac. Then flatten it, give it touch screen. That’s the iPad. The other night when I wanted to read something online in bed I thought an iPad would be much easier to handle than my MBP. But the Mac won’t go away anytime soon, because? Just like the iPad is NOT just a bigger iPhone, screen real estate and power do matter.
I agree with HueyLong. It’s amazing how so many Americans still this miss this important point. I don’t believe an exclusivity agreement is still in place, it doesn’t make sense. Apple is waiting for your other networks to catch up with the rest of the world. I’m not saying GSM is better than CDMA, but the latter is pretty much unique to the USA (and some pockets of Asia). I can’t comment on AT&T;’s network performance, but it’s clearly not as bad as people would like us to believe or the iPhone wouldn’t still be selling so well in the US after 3 years.
John Gruber has nothing to say that I want to hear. I really don’t understand why so many people are impressed by him.
On another note, I just finished watching this weeks Cranky Geeks (episode #205) in which John C. Dvorak and guests were trashing the iPad. These schmucks just don’t get it. But eventually they will, whether they like it or not. The show was worth watching just to see them ripping on each other, especially when they ganged up on J.C. Very entertaining.
My new iPad will be used as #3; I already have built a shelf under the coffee table for it. It will be used when we want to check mail; want to look up info on films we’re watching; want to access any other information with a very low footprint device. I can see it as an “information appliance” and suspect it will be in constant use. Probably remain in the same location. I think it is a brilliant – and actually not so ‘niche’ – product. Rather it will once again simplify getting information, as Apple has done so brilliantly in the past.
The iPad is a replacement for at least 90% of consumer computers including all but a small percentage of rabid gamers.
It’s just that consumers don’t know it yet.
I can’t believe the guy who writes The Daring Fireball said this.
Guber is a goober. By which to say, he is an ass.
Regarding AT&T;. I never have problems with AT&T;. I think the fact that the media are centered in New York and a lot of the tech types are based in San Francisco skew the impressions of AT&T;’s service levels. I’d wager that the majority of iPhone users actually don’t have the problems the media types do. Just like the media to believe the world revolves around them…
Cripes, there’s a lot of hate here for Gruber. I don’t read him that often, but when I do I find him to be smart, fair, and articulate. My favorite column of his is from back in ’04 when people were just discovering that, what-do-ya-know, Macs were virus-free while Windows had tens of thousands of pieces of malware. It’s a great explanation of why that is.
You can read it here:
http://daringfireball.net/2004/06/broken_windows
Lol well said. Stevee and CRAPPLE is so stubborn and ignorant. Face the CRAPPLE this isn’t your world and you will lose in the end.
http://www.bing.com When it comes to decisions that matter, Bing & Decide
I think John Lassater is Pixar’s charismatic leader. He defined the philosophy and is managing all of Disney Animation today. That being said, I think the directors there are pretty autonomous – we would still get Brad Bird films if Lassater quit or was incapacitated.
Steve’s product vision would be succeeded by Jonathan Ive’s. Tim Cook looks like he was quite capable at handling general management, and for all we know he has actually done that job (as opposed to product development) for some time. So a Tim Cook-managed company with Johnathan Ive doing product development seems like the natural succession and one where great products would still be developed.
I like WebOS, but it just doesn’t seem to have gotten any traction …
D
Just what we need, some one who has all the answers?
Gruber is smoking his lib hippie crack.
MDN, I agree that #3 is probably a few years off, but Gruber’s observation nails it in my opinion that given the choice, “If you are sitting on a couch and you need a computer, most people are going to reach for the iPad, not the [laptop]”.
No company is perfect – even MDN prints knee-jerk rubbish takes on stories.
I really wish pundits would make up their minds about whether or not the iPad is supposed to be a computer replacement or not. One day you read how it’s a “specialty Internet appliance”, the next day you’re reading how it’s going to replace the personal computer altogether.
Is anyone with half a brain in their skull actually planning to use this thing without a Mac or PC to sync it to? How would you back up your data? I would never use an iPod or iPhone without iTunes. The iPad is basically the same device with more screen real estate. Who in their right mind would use it without iTunes?
——RM
My iPhone is normally docked at home, both for charging and for sync. But if I could sync completely via the cloud then iTunes sync would not be as important. I would like to see a full implementation of iTunes sync in MobileMe which would add a lot of value to the subscription.
@HueyLong:
Re: CDMA. You should not talk about tech if you have no idea about it. CDMA is a well-known multiple access technique that you can find in all text books of communication theory.
Verizon and AT&T;3G services both use CDMA. What Verizon uses is called CDMA2000 variant. AT&T;uses the GSM variety called WCDMA. BOTH ARE CDMA! and both are equally good. Technically, GSM/GPRS just refers to the 2G part of AT&T;network.
Reason why Verizon had an one-up on AT&T;is since Verizon’s 2G tech is also based on CDMA while GSM is not. GSM found out that CDMA is the best option for 3G when they started their 3GPP standardization. It was easy for Verizon to upgrade to 3G due to this and hence the problem with AT&T;: they need to throw more money to get 3G parity.
Of course, both are good technologies. It just requires necessary investment to make either work well. AT&T;is still in the process …
um…John….Mr. Gruber….
how did you fail to mention Apple’s Quality of late?
Two problems:
1. Too much money
2. Nowhere to put it
@ Bob: “Gruber is smoking his lib hippie crack.”
Shame on you for trying to degrade this thread into political nonsense. “May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your armpits!”
The biggest problem facing facing Apple is Apple staff laughing so hard at the ‘competition’ like Windows Mobile and Palm Pre and the 250,000 Moto Droids sold after a $100 million launch ad campaign (do the math!) or the 80,000 Google Nexus ‘Super’ phones sold in a month.
No wonder Steve Jobs had to give a troops a rousing pep talk and remind the guys not to relax “Hey Tim, Phil stop laughing! Google is evil!! Google is out to kill the iPhone! Hey GUYs I said stop….” .
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Come on FUD isn’t on the list? Astonishing, FUD has been one of Apple’s major problems for yours in a general way. Someone should talk to the author in private.
Regarding item 1, while it’s true that Apple ran just fine while Jobs was on health leave, this only proves that they don’t need his constant guidance and direction to maintain operations for a few months. Let’s face it, anyone who thought otherwise is an idiot.
The real question here is how Apple would fare without Jobs in the long term. Is there anyone besides Jobs who has the vision, the leadership, and the balls to make the sort of difficult decisions that even Jobs is routinely criticized for?
Could someone like Cook have pulled off the switch to OS X, or the one to Intel chips? Could anyone else get away with things like no Flash support on the iPhone and iPad, or the removal of Firewire ports and user-repalceable batteries on laptops? How about the battle against the music industry for fixed $0.99 pricing, and later trading that in for the removal of all DRM?
These are the sort of decisions that Apple will need to continue making in the future if they are to remain leaders and not followers.
Idiot
the ten biggest problems are the ten best things going for apple
I think number one on this list could have been they are making too much money, it fits with the rest of the bs on the list
@freediverx
Excellent post. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head re/ Steve Jobs’ true contribution to Apple and the industry.
Gruber is well past his sell-by date on Apple and IT matters. He has too much public angst to be objective there any more. He is bright enough but he should turn to something simpler for his future reflections. Like the vagaries of the bagel market or climate change and its impact on the price of fish, or just shooting the breeze for fun.
Not daring though, and
No fireball.
The alt is that I compile a list of Gruber’s 10 biggest problems. Now there’s an idea. The trouble would be choosing only 10 probs.
But he is sort of bright and occasionally articulate too. So I’ll change my mind and recommend that he writes a book. Always an option for even a half-way competent blogger. And JG is more than that even though he falls short as a commentator nowadays.
Always better to quit at the top of your game, while your balls are still on fire, as it were.
I don’t get this list. How do you blandly call something like the App Store a problem? Its boons outweigh its issues by far.
The issues I see with Apple are:
1. No clear successor to Steve Jobs. Everyone points this one out.
2. Lack of gaming support on the mac. Convince Creative to make mac drivers for its sound cards. Support more video cards in the mac pro, and adapt to changes faster. Make cross platform development easier.
3. No midrange tower between the mac pro and the iMac. I love my mac pro, but not everyone can drop 3k on a computer.
4. Not making Cocoa/XCode cross-platform. Note that I have the same issue with Visual Studio. This would help with #2.
To be fair, I’d better respond to Gruber’s list.
1 Apple depends less and less on Jobs, by his design. He knows about mortality and he cares too much about Apple. Jobs is Apple but Apple is becoming far more than Jobs. He has spent so much time resurrecting Apple into the giant it was destined to be, he could hardly fail to plan for his own, eventual, redundancy. He has created the core internal concept of an Apple DNA. He may have started the threads that are leading to the unfolding expression of Apple’s many strengths, but he does not seem to want to keep these threads to himself. He is passing them to others. I’ve said it before but I will reverse the expression to show it in a different light. You cannot take Apple out of Steve Jobs. But it is becoming possible to take Steve Jobs out of Apple. I believe he sees the need for that and is making it more possible day by day.
2 AT&T;? So what is the alternative in America? AT&T;is the right choice for the USA. But Apple’s markets are far, far bigger and the carriers it uses elsewhere are good enough. This cannot hurt Apple in the bigger picture. AT&T;is investing in the future. Any other US carriers doing the same?
3 This is really nonsense. If there have been any threats to sales of an existing product it was the intro of an i7 iMac and its impacts on Power Mac sales to medium power users. iPad enhances the range by filling a gap. it will not be allowed to threaten the iMac or PowerBooks for at least a decade. iPad is the everyday casual computer for ‘good enough’ informal computing. It is not in the PowerBook’s league.
4 App Store problems are caused by its unexpectedly fast and overwhelming success. What’s the problem here Grubie? There are millions of songs, zillions of books and we don’t have a problem categorising them. The same attention will be paid to apps as that market matures by quality and by attrition. It’s a good problem to have in the short term. It’s an unintended consequence of success. Big problem, yeah!
5 Security? So where is the problem that cannot be solved?
6 MobileMe? It’s value for money if you actually use it and Apple increases its usefulness as time passes.
7 Backups? Really. If people can’t be bothered, let them lose some vital data. That’s how I learned my lesson. Not everyone needs a dedicated solution like Time Machine, but it’s there and it prompts you to use it. Many other solutions too. This is a complaint about the carelessness of people which is not Apple’s problem except to provide a solution. As in …. You can take a whore to culture, but you can’t make her think.
8 Apple TV is not a hobby. I never bought that. It is a non-critical experimental dish cooking on the back burner and, while you’re curious how it’ll turn out, you’re not in a hurry and you can keep adding ingredients in the meantime to see how it tastes from time to time. It doesn’t hurt Apple. It’s more profitable than any Dell product. People like it. Duh!
9 Arch Rivals? Gruber is really grubbing (grubering?) around now and he knows this is bullshit. Dishonest point to make. Apple has had a firecracker up its ass since Jobs returned. It is obsessed about impressing itself and its customers… NO ONE ELSE! Jobs has put that motivation up there front and centre in its DNA. Each senior manager is infected with that virus, and it shows, and this is why Apple is indeed firing on all cylinders. There is great congruence among the key players in Apple. They all sing from the same song sheet by choice, not coercion. It works. There is no stronger formula for success. Trying to outdo yourself is a very tough regime to follow. There are no arch rivals out there, worthy of the name, nor worthy of emulation.
10 Box Credits? It’s likely an oversight don’t you think? Acknowledgment is a part of Jobs’ personality. The first Mac had every participant’s name engraved into the inner surface of the casing. The iPad is nothing if not the embodiment of Jef Raskin’s visions made real. Credits will come when someone notices the omission. Or not. Does it matter.
Shame on you John Gruber. Writing crap just to have something to write.
It’s not nonsense. He’s a dumb-liberal-hippie-smoking-crack… hence his bad analysis. It does matter to the conversation. Just because you may be a dumb-liberal-hippie as well, doesn’t detract from the fact he’s one.
“Just because you may be a dumb-liberal-hippie as well, doesn’t detract from the fact he’s one.”
Freedom of speech does have its drawbacks.
Really lame how MDN didn’t elaborate on the most relevant points in the list, the App Store and Security. LAME, MDN, LAME.
Apple’s #1 biggest problem:
G R U B E R