Dvorak: iPad is not going to be Apple’s next runaway best seller

“The Apple iPad is not going to be the company’s next runaway best seller,” John C. Dvorak writes for MarketWatch. “Not if the industry can help it.”

MacDailyNews Take: What industry? The one that for about a decade so far has been taking a Microsoft OS that’s not suited for tablets or touch, but cramming it into ugly, heavy, inefficient hardware resulting in anemic, laughable sales? Steve Jobs must be cowering in fear.

Dvorak continues, “What is most galling to the tech industry is a company coming along within an existing sub-segment of the market, such as MP3 players, and showing up all the established manufacturers and then taking over the market. What is more galling is doing it without underhanded business practices designed to somehow lockout or screw the competitors. Apple has done it by shrewd marketing and the wise use of industrial design and stunning user interfaces.”

“In the process it has humiliated Sony Corp., Samsung, Motorola Inc., Nokia Corp., Microsoft Corp., Panasonic Corp., Ericsson, and dozens of other flat-footed companies in both the MP3 world and the smartphone arena,” Dvorak writes. “It went on to embarrass every single record label and music distributor with its iTunes, too.”

“It’s now trying to humiliate everyone and anyone who ever tried to push a tablet computer and I sense that this time the industry is not going to be taken to the woodshed any more for the Apple spanking,” Dvorak writes.

MacDailyNews Take: “The industry,” as Dvorak himself points out, didn’t want to be taken to the woodshed in MP3 players, online content services, and smartphones, not to mention high-end notebooks, yet in the woodshed they sit. Dvorak’s “logic” as we understand it is: “The industry” was mad about iPod and iTunes, and then really mad about iPhone, but now they’re really, really mad, so, uh… you know, this time it’ll be different. As usual, J.D.’s not making his case very well.

Dvorak continues, “This scenario comes to mind because on Monday, at the Mobile World Conference and CEO junket in Barcelona, Intel and Nokia are expected to make a partnership announcement. Everyone assumes it’s headed in the direction of more mobile computers from Nokia… Nokia is now fooling around with Netbooks and could easily develop an e-reader or iPad-like device with Intel.”

Full article – Think Before You Click™here.

MacDailyNews Take: Okay, so the company who can’t make fast and efficient portable chips, who routinely gets its ass handed to it by ARM, is going to team up with a cellphone maker known primarily for basic candybar phones, its inability to penetrate the lucrative North American market, and for rapidly losing market share to Apple and, for God’s sake, RIM, is going to “easily” develop an iPad-like device?

As usual, Dvorak doesn’t understand the blood, sweat, and tears that Apple puts into R&D and demeans them by trivializing what it would really take to catch them. That Dvorak seems not to realize that a vibrant, rapidly-growing ecosystem is already in place and just waiting for iPad to hit the streets is inexcusable for someone who’s supposed to be covering tech issues, regardless of his “cranky geek” schtick.

Dvorak is right about one thing: Apple has embarrassed many, many companies, but as is often his wont, he fails provide any convincing evidence that this time around it’ll be any different.

90 Comments

  1. I made the following reply to that article:
    ——-
    You wrote:
    “So Apple snubs Intel and goes its own way. OK, so Intel decides to find a new partner who holds a grudge…”

    This whole article is premised on the idea that business is a bunch of middle-school boys squabbling in the playground.

    Intel understands the many business reasons that drove Apple to move to Intel processors for their computers, and also the reasons why they have elected to go to their proprietary A4 chip.

    It reflects the infantile thinking of the author more than anything in reality.

    BTW- The iPod will be a big flop as will the iPhone – right?

  2. Nokia is now fooling around with Netbooks and could easily develop an e-reader or iPad-like device with Intel.

    Jaw. On. Floor.

    SRSLY!??

    Look, Mr. “nobody will use a mouse” Dvorak, if it was so “easy” to do this, Microsoft wouldn’t be in the world of hurt they’re in now. Planning, developing, and maintaining an operating system, and an ecosystem around it, is NOT EASY.

    I tried listening to this guy with Leo Laporte on TWiT. I couldn’t finish the episode. Leo even asked him about his infamous “mouse” quote from when the Mac first came out, and Dvorak completely failed to justify his reaction in an intellectually defensible manner.

    Dvorak is little more than an amusing punching bag for his hilariously off-target opinions. How can anyone take him seriously?

  3. As usual, another “pundit” focused on hardware tech specs only. Developing a tablet is only part of the equation. What about the 140,000+ iPhone apps that will run on the iPad, iTunes, the ability to easily sync with your computer, etc.?

  4. Seriously though, you have to learn how to read the Dvorak Code. He’s actually gushing about Apple’s ability to market game-chaging gear without acting like putrid, slimy fiends. He always leaves himself a way out, so later he can play it like the ironic, satirical futurist.

  5. It’s not that Dvorak is wrong he’s just about 35 years EARLY with his predictions

    He DID predict that no one will use a mouse…HE’s RIGHT!!!!! in about 8 to 10 years it will all be touch screen, track pad and voice.

    He’s right AGAIN that “the industry” won’t be taken to the woodshed again. Only he’s referring to the “TRANSPORTER” that Apple will build in 2045 since by then there will be no such thing as a woodshed. They will all be made of recycled polycarbonate made out of by then pointless Dell Computers.

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