“As smart phones increasingly appear alike, with high-end models mostly taking their cues from Apple Inc.’s iPhone, more and more it’s the software they run that makes a difference,” Peter Svensson reports for The Associated Press. “A growing number of operating systems are jostling for the attention of phone buyers and manufacturers. The winners will determine what our phones can do, which Web sites we’re steered to, and which manufacturers will survive the next few years.”
Svensson reports, “The battle will be on display as wireless carriers and phone makers gather next week in Barcelona, Spain, for the industry’s largest trade show, Mobile World Congress. The CEO of Google Inc., suddenly a strong contender in phone software, will address the show.”
MacDailyNews Take: From his hole, or will Eric T. Mole come out in the bright light?
Svensson continues, “One in six U.S. adults had a smart phone last year, according to Forrester Research. That share is expected to grow rapidly in the next few years… Analysts don’t expect smart phones to settle on one kind of operating software, like the PC industry largely has with Microsoft’s Windows. But analysts do expect the smart phone field to be winnowed down to two to four winners over the next few years.”
• iPhone OS: Apple’s phone continues to roil the industry, and its sales more than quadrupled last year. Its features are a model for competitors, and it has by far the most support from application developers, despite complaints about the company’s opaque and slow approval process. But while Apple is likely to be one of the winners in the smart phone fight of the coming years, its reach will be limited because Apple doesn’t allow any other manufacturer to use the iPhone operating system. And Apple doesn’t make a wide variety of phones to choose from — just two models, with some variations in color and memory capacity. Apple’s narrow focus gives it excellent profit margins but also leaves plenty of room for competitors.
• Symbian: Nokia Corp.’s use of Symbian software has taken it to the top, but its perch is precarious. It’s down from 56 percent worldwide share in 2008 to 44 percent in 2009, according to research firm In-Stat. Even though it’s No. 1 in the world, it’s nearly unknown in the U.S. One problem is that Nokia and Symbian have failed to keep up with the latest trends in the U.S. market, particularly touch screens. And now the love of touch screens is spreading overseas… To power more-capable high-end phones, Nokia is now trying a version of the Linux operating system called Maemo.
• BlackBerry: Research in Motion Ltd. of Canada uses its own software for its BlackBerrys and doesn’t license it to others. Though sales are still growing strongly, they could not keep up with Apple’s growth last year, and the iPhone’s market share at 19.8 percent edged past the BlackBerry’s 19.2 percent, according to In-Stat. “The BlackBerry platform looks old and tired. It needs a significant scrub and redo,” ABI Research analyst Stuart Carlaw says. “I don’t think we’ll see that in the first half of this year, but it’s something that should be in the cards for them later in the year. If it isn’t, it needs to be.”
• Windows Mobile: Once a pioneer in smart phones, Microsoft is struggling to keep up. Manufacturers like Motorola Corp. and HTC Corp. are shifting away from Windows Mobile toward Google’s Android. Last year, fewer Windows Mobile phones were sold than the year before, even in a market that grew 35 percent. Microsoft is expected to show off a new version of its mobile software Monday in Barcelona. Analysts see that as a do-or-die attempt to stay relevant in the business.
• Android: Free for manufacturers as part of Google’s effort to stimulate use of its Web services on cell phones. It’s attracting a lot of attention from application developers, but the offerings still don’t match those on the iPhone, either in quantity or quality. Carlaw believes Android will, much like Symbian, mainly be used in mid-to-low tier smart phones, leaving the high end of the market to the iPhone, and perhaps Nokia’s Maemo.
• webOS: “The easiest one to write off is Palm. They’re just so small in terms of overall market share,” says In-Stat analyst Allen Nogee. “Unless they really see phenomenal growth coming out of Europe, and their expansion with Verizon and AT&T, it’s going to be very challenging for them in the long run.”
• LiMo: Short for Linux Mobile, LiMo is a consortium that gives away its software… Uptake has been minimal, and Android and the free version of Symbian seem to have stolen a lot of LiMo’s thunder.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: iPad also runs iPhone OS. Failing to take into account the effect of iPad on accelerating developer momentum that’s already off the charts and its ancillary (iPad halo) benefits to already strong iPhone sales would be a mistake.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “James W.” for the heads up.]
The iPhone OS is also in the iPod touch. That will now be 3 markets that are based on the same OS and all are based on a stripped down Mac OS X.
What is the real market share of Mac OS X.
Barcelona mobile congress??? is that the place where all manufacturers show their “iPhones wannabe” or “look alike” and every body talks about the iphone and it’s app store and accessories for the iphone, plans and carriers for the iPhones…. but there is no iphone in there?
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I think it should be call “iPhone please come and see how much we admire you”
Wow! 19.8 market share for apple vs. 19.2 for BB?! Shouldn’t the headline reflect that fact?! That’s huge!!!
If Mr. Google were a “mole”, seeking out Apple’s company confidentials, don’t you think his own phone would have benefitted more? Might have proven more competitive with the iPhone? So, either that was not his purpose or he was incredibly inept at it.
His company is doing well with him at the helm … he is not used to being inept.
If WinMo can stream Pandora my iPhone will be on eBay faster than a hobo on a hotdog.
“Revolutionary.”
But when Jobs announced the iPhone, the critics couldn’t wait to piss all over it.
Sound familiar?
My prediction for 2015:
Apple & RIM fighting for #1 & #2. Apple the better phone, RIM the pick of IT drones and Apple haters. RIM will have to solve their problems with their NOC in London Ontario; also, what is their penetration worldwide?
Android at #3. It’s the new WinCE/WinMO
Any other survivors as distant runners-up. R2 will be with them.
I think long term RIM have a real problem. They rely on business men and wannabee lookilikee businessmen for whom it still has some cache. But it is based on smoke and mirrors and as its business use advantages completely fade over time it will be seen a one trick pony deficient in the required number of legs, competing against a Stallion in the iPhone. The main competition will be between those with an open system or a more like a mule in reality- sterile but handy. Android is best placed of these but WinMo could still gain presence amongst business types fleeing RIM and mindless Windows cronies (no names mentioned).
@ R2,
You really need to LimeWire yourself a music collection.
You have an opportunity to create yourself your perfect playlist.
Something Pandora is incapable of, no matter how hard they try.
my prediction for the long run for top 3:
1/2. Iphone OS and Android very close
3. Win Mo (not that I like it or anything, but MS has proven to be quite successful in spreading itself into the market like a disease)
4. Symbian OS as it’s now open source
I think iPhone will dominate the first-class market, both consumer and business.
With RIM holding in some struggling non-tech-savvy businesses.
With WinMo being present solely within MicroSoft and who ever they can payoff.
Nokia’s smartphones are only strong in one place, Europe. In the other smartphone hotbeds, South Korea, Japan and the US, Nokia is nowhere. They withdrew from Japan last year. In Korea, they have almost no presence. And, in the US, they are an afterthought.
It’s funny, but in those same three places, S Korea, Japan and the US, the iPhone is very strong. Amazing how you don’t see those iPhone failure stories about Japan or Korea anymore.
“…And Apple doesn’t make a wide variety of phones to choose from — just two models, with some variations in color and memory capacity.”
Currently, that it true. Apple has not attempted to tailor the iPhone for subsets of potential customers. However, it is reasonable to believe that Apple might consider more iPhone variations if it fits into their long term plans. Apple’s philosophy makes sense to me – offer a good range of basic functionality in a new product that is integrated with the Apple ecosystem and expands it in some important way. Then, after proving out and solidifying those basic functions, add and/or enhance its functionality and further differentiate that product as appropriate for the marketplace.
Keep in mind that Apple is largely a software company at heart. The design of Apple products enables a great deal of refinement and enhancement using software – both the OS and third-party applications. So Apple does not necessarily need six or eight different iPhone models. Apple just needs a basic functional iPhone form factor with a consistent user interface to enhance and refine going forward. Apple knows how to define that basic functional form factor better than any other company of which I am aware, which is why every new “smart phone” on the market looks very similar to the iPhone. Don’t change it unless it is broken…
@gRen,
Thought that was already known.
@KingMel
I beg to differ. Apple is a hardware company. They use software to sell their hardware.
Just my 2¢