Analyst: Verizon iPhone deal unlikely in 2010

Hammacher Homepage 300x250Map lovers, it looks like you’re stuck with Motorola Droid and whatever other pretend iPhones Verizon decides to pimp through at least 2011, if an Apple analyst’s evaluation is correct.

Neil Hughes reports for AppleInsider, “In a new note to investors Wednesday morning, analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. said although many believe the iPhone will come to Verizon in 2010, it’s likely wishful thinking. The problem, he said, is both Verizon and Apple have found success by focusing on ‘customer control.’ Their similarities are what he believes will keep them apart.”

Hughes reports, “‘Apple runs its own App Store and VZ has aspirations to do so,’ Wu said. ‘Apple controls the media experience with iTunes and VZ with its V CAST service. Moreover, Apple gets very favorable economics with an overall iPhone (average selling price) of $611 and at AT&T, we estimate it is higher at roughly $700. RIM, who is by far VZ’s largest smart phone supplier, only has an ASP of $340. Palm’s ASP is $436 and we estimate Motorola’s Droid ASP is roughly $450.'”

“Because Apple and Verizon have conflicting interests, Wu said he believes that a deal between the two companies would take longer than many currently expect,” Hughes reports. “That would make a potential 2010 deal unlikely.”

Hughes reports, “Instead, Wu said that Apple could strike deals with both Sprint, which has 48 million wireless subscribers, and T-Mobile, which has 33 million customers. Both companies are more likely to be agreeable with Apple’s practices in order to offer the iPhone.”

MacDailyNews Take: “Agreeable.” As in, on their knees begging Steve Jobs while uncontrollably salivating all over the floor.

Hughes continues, “‘While we believe VZ is likely inevitable at some point when 4G technology rolls out in 2012 or so, we believe Sprint and/or T-Mobile are more willing partners for Apple in helping maintain margins and customer controls,’ he said. ‘From a technology perspective, we believe T-Mobile may have an advantage with a similar 3G UMTS/WCDMA network as AT&T.’

Hughes reports, “Another possibility noted by Wu: Apple could extend its contract with AT&T through 2011.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Verizon is a dumb pipe that thinks it’s smart. Verizon’s wrong an they will pay dearly if they end up being the only carrier without Apple’s iPhone.

33 Comments

  1. If Sprint AND T-Mobile both got the iPhone in addition to AT&T;, then Verizon will be the huuuuuuge loser of the bunch. They’re a terrible company, both to their customers and their partners. Yes, they’ve got the most widespread network. But with the 3 other carriers, the iPhone will do just fine without Verizon.

  2. “From a technology perspective, we believe T-Mobile may have an advantage with a similar 3G UMTS/WCDMA network as AT&T;.”

    May have a technology advantage? You really don’t get it do you.

  3. I agree with you Rike, that is the deal that I hope comes to fruition. Can you imagine a $59.99(probably higher though) plan for the iPhone with T-Mobile(Very Good Service in Greensboro, NC) service….

  4. Good. Screw Verizon.

    I really don’t understand why people love them so much. Personally, I hope the iPhone comes to Sprint even though that’s unlikely. My coverage is great. I never have problems where I have to contact customer service. So I resist switching unless necessary.

    BTW, why do so many people have to call customer service? What types of issues are you having? Screwed up billing or what?

  5. I believe it is far more likely Apple will sign up T-Mobile or Sprint and have been saying so for months. I think Apple knows that it will need to surround Verizon to bring them to their knees and thus will not extend the agreement with AT&T;unless it is turned down by both.

    Verizon is one of the most stubborn companies around, and like Palm, is not going to let a hardware vendor exert any control over their business.

    Only thing is Verizon doesn’t understand it’s business. It wants to own everything in, on and around the pipe, and frankly, that’s not going to happen because they aren’t technologically savvy enough to keep up and choose the right technologies to remain cutting edge. In fact, it’s incredibly short sighted to expect that they can. Looks like a good stock to short for the longer term.

  6. Why all the verizon hatred? If they meet Apples demands, then who cares if they get the iphone. As for this analyst, they don’t have conflicting interests in my opinion, they have the exact same interests (control of what is on the phone, apps … etc). Like poles repell … oh well. Since they didn’t play with the droid software, maybe it’s the start of a change. We’ll see.

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