• Apple, expecting a rush on its $99 3G iPhones, underestimated demand for the $199 and $299 models. As a result, there were widespread shortages of nearly all 3GS iPhones through the first weeks of July.
• “This is an interesting and arguably counter-economic trend,” he writes, one that should lead to much higher profitability — perhaps as high as 1,000 basis points.
• Apple has adjusted its production mix and supplies are improving. Wu is currently modeling 6.8 million iPhones for Q4 — nearly equal to Apple’s runaway fourth quarter last year (6.89 million iPhones) and up 31% from Q3 (5.21 million). It’s a forecast, he says, that could prove to be conservative.
MacDailyNews Note: Wu is discussing Apple’s fiscal 2009 fourth quarter which is the third calendar quarter, running roughly July-September.
• He is picking up signs that Apple’s suppliers could be gearing up to build 9 million to 10 million units.
Elmer-Dewitt reports, “Wu recently raised his [AAPL] price target to $184 a share.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: In tougher economic times, people look for quality, value, and durability. They tend to think more about their purchases — and the more people think, the better Apple’s products look. That’s why, even amidst the current macroeconomic conditions, Apple is selling record amounts of so-called “premium priced” products. People are thinking before buying and are therefore realizing that Apple’s products are the smart choice because they are actually less expensive since they just work, don’t require additional purchases to continue working, have much longer useful lives, have much higher resale value, and are free of the frustration tax found with cut-rate, low-margin, money- and time-wasting junk.
What were Ballmer’s quotes on the iPhone again?
The ramp up is really starting. And the M$ crash is really beginning.
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Just a thought.
en
To be fair, Ballmer was partly right.
He didn’t think a $500 phone had any chance at becoming a mainstream hit.
It turns out he was too shortsighted to predict that ATT would subsidize it.
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Whoops… For a moment there, I forgot about the rear of the world! 😮
Make that, “the carriers,” rather than just ATT.
For a moment there, I forgot that they are climbing all over each other for the opportunity to sling Apple’s wares.
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“Whoops… For a moment there, I forgot about the rear of the world! :o”
Uh, did you mean the “rest” of the world? If not, wow.
Butbutbut!
Pre!
zomg!!!!1!!11!!!eleventyone!!!
If you can’t afford to buy it now, then wait and save up for it. How hard is that? Apple products are worth the wait to save up your hard earned money for it.
Not bad for Apple who had a goal of 1% of the world wide phone sales… 10 million phones per year in 2007. This year the phone sales are way down, so if I were Apple, I would be tickled pink!
If Wu is talking about Apple’s fiscal 4th quarter last year, as MDN maintains–the same quarter we’re currently in–as the runaway quarter, then he seems to be predicting a year-over-year DECLINE. He’s saying Apple sold 6.89 million phones this quarter last year, and they’re going to sell nearly as many–6.8 million–the same quarter this year. This is NOT a positive prediction because it would show ZERO growth. There’s no chance of that!
Go Apple!!
The only way Apple can make its Q4 guidance (Revenue, Gross Margins, EPS) is to sell >9,000,000 iPhones.
No rush for the 8GB iPhone 3G here in the Philippines since the carrier has priced it more expensive than the 16GB iPhone 3GS.
Getting my first iPhone later this week as a late birthday present.
Thank you girlfriend!!!