Analyst: Apple could obliterate consensus revenue estimate by $1.2 billion in Q1 09

“When Apple reports earnings in January for its first fiscal quarter of 2009, the investment community could be greeted with the mother of all earnings blow-outs. The analyst consensus estimates have gotten so absurdly bearish, that Apple might beat revenue expectations by as much as $1.210 billion dollars—and that’s with a mild contraction in iPod sales! I can’t remember the last time any company beat revenue expectations by a full $1.2 billion, but I can only imagine how the stock price would react on such a beat. Almost as impressive is the 36.1% beat on analyst EPS estimates that I am confident Apple will achieve,” Andy Zaky writes for Bullish Cross.

“The analysts are currently modeling for Apple to earn $1.44 in EPS on $10.080 billion in revenue. By contrast, I’m looking for Apple to earn closer to $1.96 in EPS on $11.29 billion in revenue. That would mark the largest revenue beat by any company I’ve ever seen, and will generally be an all out fantasy-like decimation of analyst consensus estimates. Depending on where the stock price is at the time of earnings, where the consensus and whisper numbers stand going into the results, and the market’s current sentiment on equities, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20 point move in the stock price. This is a once in a blue moon type of earnings situation that will likely be far more surprising than Google’s results last April,” Zaky writes.

“The general bearishness surrounding Apple’s fiscal Q1 is largely due to the uncertainty regarding the degree of contraction in consumer spending for the months of November and December. The analysts, who have already been overly bearish on the stock as it is (which has lead to Apple beating iPhone estimates by 72% in Q4), have seriously gone too far this quarter with their earnings estimates. It has gotten to the point of irrational bearish exuberance, that the estimates no longer reflect even a scintilla of financial reality. The analysts have been consistently wrong in predicting Apple’s earnings results and this time they’re going to get their ‘hats handed to them’ as the expression goes,” Zaky writes.

Even on in extremely bearish scenario where iPods unit sales and iPod revenue see significant contraction, and where Macintosh sales see flat sequential growth despite its recent refresh across its line of notebook computers, Apple will still beat revenue expectations by nearly half a billion dollars—that’s on a pretty bearish scenario,” Zaky explains.

Much more in the comprehensive full article – highly recommended – here.

25 Comments

  1. Of course, Andy’s right, but letting out the secret, now, will only let those dumb analysts put out earnings upgrades into the earnings period, diminishing the “beat” when it eventually comes.

  2. Our dollar value is up and Apple continues to grow internationally and domestically. Apple will be coming out with a multi-touch MacTablet about then. All of the above is true. But! What about the BO President and his dream of crushing successful American companies?

  3. What about the BO President and his dream of crushing successful American companies?

    Blah, blah, blah, your ticket lost already. People didn’t believe it out on the stump so you’ve got two years to start finding something new with which to beat the man.

    I understand that the Republican Party is so committed to taking back the White House (or the Crib, as I shall be calling it from now on just to annoy redneck cracker a**wipes) that they’re already lining up Sarah Palin and various other religious nutjobs to take a swing in 2012.

    Damn the fact that she can barely tell a group of children how the US Government works, she’s a pretty face who also engages with the happy-clapper bible-thumpers.

    Obviously, no substantive policies or clear visions of how to dig America out of the “voodoo economics” hell of credit default swaps and banks being bailed out by the American taxpayer, but they can quote mystical passages from an ancient book so that’s OK then.

  4. @MCCFR
    I’m not sure what you are doing today, but today I am working so I and my employer can get taxed extra in order to make everything “fair” for those who won’t get out of bed to work or for those who stay in bed to work to make extra babies in order to get more Obamafare.
    I voted in GA and McCain won in GA, so I did all I could do.
    Most investors and businesses are over $120 and were first smart enough to get where they got by hard work and second smart enough to either hire less employees, lay off employees, and/or hoard their cash or invest it in the China market. China Mobile has 36 billion in cash and McCain voters are smart enough to figure those things out. Those with your hands out who voted for things to be “fair” will sit still and wait for Obamafare to bail you out, while those over $120k are already taking action to not get screwed. WHERE is the money going to come from to do what Obama wants to do…from your pocket. You might as well have voted for Cindy Crawford if you wanted a fresh visual Bush protest. Just like Windows users…you didn’t do your homework. Obama had to run to the middle to get elected and he will have to stay in the middle in order to have any success. Alot of you bailouts are going to be disappointed, then you will vote in protest, while the Republicans tag the next Democrat running with Obamanomics. It is coming full circle at your expense. The founding fathers have turned in their grave.

  5. @I challenge you to read some of those “mystical passages from an ancient book”
    If you believe that you are just going to die and let the bugs creep into your casket and eat you, then what hope do you really have? Is Obama your only Savior?
    If you let a hypocrite stand between you and God, then the hypocrite has a 50% better chance of eternal life than you do.

  6. CD…

    Curiously, I’m working as well.

    I am working so I and my employer can get taxed extra in order to make everything “fair” for those who won’t get out of bed to work or for those who stay in bed to work to make extra babies in order to get more Obamafare.

    Yep, annoying isn’t it – but let’s be clear, nearly 50% of your Federal income tax payments go either on military spending or, and this is the truly annoying bit, interest payments on Federal debt.

    Maybe we need a little more clarity: maybe we need to stop taking a ludicrous religious view on teaching children how not to have children. Want to take issue with me on this? Go speak to the Governor of Alaska about her daughter who, if she was any other young mom to be, would be putting a crease in her own prospects for the future and your tax payments. In a responsible world, teenagers get taught about relationships and how to avoid unwanted pregnancies and equally-unwelcome STIs. In America, you get told to take a cold shower – how’s that working out?

    BTW, you also need to analyse the correlation between states that are net recipients of Federal dollars and those that have tended to vote Red. Whilst you’re at, check the states that vote Blue and how they tend to be net donors to the Federal budget. Want to complain about noses in the Federal trough – complain about the whole thing, not just the bits that get your goat.

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