Analyst expects 425,000 iPhone 3G units sold in first three days; 45 million units in 2009

“Just days away now from the release of Apple’s next generation iPhone… And if the first one was dubbed the ‘Jesus Phone’ because of the overwhelming hype, hope and promise of that device, then this new one is quite literally iPhone’s ‘Second Coming,'” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster “anticipates 12 million iPhones will sell this year; but thanks to the new version, sales should balloon to 45 million next year,” Goldman reports. “For the first weekend of iPhone 3G sales, Munster expects a staggering 425,000 units sold worldwide for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For the first two days, which would be an apples to apples comparison to the last launch, Piper sees 380,000 units sold. Still staggering since the first iPhone sold 270,000 units in its first two days. “

“Piper anticipates 225,000 units sold in the USA, 75,000 in the United Kingdom, and about 7,000 more in each of the other 18 countries that will sell it,” Goldman reports. “For the September quarter, the first full quarter of the new iPhone’s availability, Piper expects 4.1 million units sold.”

More in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

38 Comments

  1. rahrens,

    Neither Canada nor New Zealand are hotbeds of world population.

    Whether iPhones sell there or not (due to greedy carriers), it will have little effect on total iPhone sales.

    The U.S., Japan, Europe, and later, China, are the meaningful markets.

    Canada and New Zealand, as with most other things in world affairs, simply do not matter.

  2. I just wish I could get one, my use of a phone is minimal so PAYG would be perfect- hopefully “later in the year” means after the initial first week rush dies down. I just can’t justify the monthly plan. Ho hum. The wait goes on.

  3. Apple haters? That’s a myth.

    Maybe we just don’t drink the Kool Aid and use reasoned analysis to formulate an informed decision. MAC is only good at markteting and their computers are expensive proprietary toys that can’t play games and are worthless in the enterprise. Their I-Phone is a joke too. That isn’t hate. It’s the truth. Suck on that, MAC dorks.

    Your potential. Our passion.™

  4. As a Canadian, I ironically also have to hope for a big fat (preferably flaming) turd to be laid at Rogers feet on Friday…assuming great sales (and great reviews) for the iPhone 3G everywhere else, a Canadian flop will have the media pointing squarely at one culprit.

    I trust my fellow Canuck fanboyz who have waited this long will wait a little longer, and call Rogers’ bluff…

  5. A couple of weeks ago, I would have been more likely to believe these numbers, but I’m starting to have my doubts. The prices some of these wireless carriers are coming up with are going to scare away a lot of customers, and will certainly cripple the experience for those who do buy the iPhone. I have to wonder what Apple thinks about those prices and pitiful data plans.

  6. Interesting that Zune says Mac are toys, and complains you can’t play games with them.

    I thought games and toys went together. So maybe its the PC that is a cheap toy. And like cheap toys, they break all the time.

  7. In most countries, the pricing of the carrier’s iPhone plans aren’t that far off from their other smartphone plans, all of which require both voice and data plans. (For AT&T;, it’s the same.) So for those interested in buying a smartphone, the pricing is not a shock. Worldwide, the smartphone market has grown from about 20M per quarter in late 2006 to about 35M per quarter today, so 4.1M across 20 countries isn’t unreasonable.

    Now for those who are just used to voice/texting plans, these prices for plans that include data are a shock. So most will not move, and I think, Apple expects that. But many will consider it for the first time. And given that about 1B phones are sold a year worldwide (there are over 2B subscribers and about half change phones every year), if even 1 out of 50 people shift over, that’s another 20M phones.

    And as the AppStore gets rolling, and MobileMe gets enhanced, and people begin to consider it again and again, the number of people willing to switch to smartphones and add $30 data plans will continue to grow, in the same way that people began switching from dialup to broadband, and began paying another $20-$30 a month.

  8. CensusTaker,

    My remarks were not to say that those two markets would make Apple’s success any less on Friday – I’ll be in line here in Rockville, MD doing my part to see that they sell well!

    My point was, that the article noted that some countries could sell as many as 7000 in that weekend, yet, due to the protests over plan costs, those two countries probably won’t.

    One good product tied to another BAD product really doesn’t bode well for sales. At l;east not in those two specific markets.

    Where it is not so tied, it will undoubtedly do quite well, Zune Tang notwithstanding…

  9. @Blue Dream,

    “Let’s say Apple does sell 45 million iPhones next year…what if 5% of those people also buy a Mac for the first time. Do the math. The halo effect is IN effect.”

    …and to think that a large chunk of that 5% would buy a Mac because they think you need a Mac to work with in iphone! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.