“Just days away now from the release of Apple’s next generation iPhone… And if the first one was dubbed the ‘Jesus Phone’ because of the overwhelming hype, hope and promise of that device, then this new one is quite literally iPhone’s ‘Second Coming,'” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster “anticipates 12 million iPhones will sell this year; but thanks to the new version, sales should balloon to 45 million next year,” Goldman reports. “For the first weekend of iPhone 3G sales, Munster expects a staggering 425,000 units sold worldwide for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For the first two days, which would be an apples to apples comparison to the last launch, Piper sees 380,000 units sold. Still staggering since the first iPhone sold 270,000 units in its first two days. “
“Piper anticipates 225,000 units sold in the USA, 75,000 in the United Kingdom, and about 7,000 more in each of the other 18 countries that will sell it,” Goldman reports. “For the September quarter, the first full quarter of the new iPhone’s availability, Piper expects 4.1 million units sold.”
More in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
Take that all you Apple haters.
THe iPhone ROCKS!!
Unless one counts Canada or New Zealand.
With plans that suck, and protest sites up already, one just might consider the numbers there to be down just a bit…
it’s going to flop in Denmark too. Nobody wants to pay what Telia is asking.
rahrens,
Neither Canada nor New Zealand are hotbeds of world population.
Whether iPhones sell there or not (due to greedy carriers), it will have little effect on total iPhone sales.
The U.S., Japan, Europe, and later, China, are the meaningful markets.
Canada and New Zealand, as with most other things in world affairs, simply do not matter.
I just wish I could get one, my use of a phone is minimal so PAYG would be perfect- hopefully “later in the year” means after the initial first week rush dies down. I just can’t justify the monthly plan. Ho hum. The wait goes on.
Apple haters? That’s a myth.
Maybe we just don’t drink the Kool Aid and use reasoned analysis to formulate an informed decision. MAC is only good at markteting and their computers are expensive proprietary toys that can’t play games and are worthless in the enterprise. Their I-Phone is a joke too. That isn’t hate. It’s the truth. Suck on that, MAC dorks.
Your potential. Our passion.™
As a Canadian, I ironically also have to hope for a big fat (preferably flaming) turd to be laid at Rogers feet on Friday…assuming great sales (and great reviews) for the iPhone 3G everywhere else, a Canadian flop will have the media pointing squarely at one culprit.
I trust my fellow Canuck fanboyz who have waited this long will wait a little longer, and call Rogers’ bluff…
A couple of weeks ago, I would have been more likely to believe these numbers, but I’m starting to have my doubts. The prices some of these wireless carriers are coming up with are going to scare away a lot of customers, and will certainly cripple the experience for those who do buy the iPhone. I have to wonder what Apple thinks about those prices and pitiful data plans.
With a family of four there is no way I’m buying iPhones.
Interesting that Zune says Mac are toys, and complains you can’t play games with them.
I thought games and toys went together. So maybe its the PC that is a cheap toy. And like cheap toys, they break all the time.
In most countries, the pricing of the carrier’s iPhone plans aren’t that far off from their other smartphone plans, all of which require both voice and data plans. (For AT&T;, it’s the same.) So for those interested in buying a smartphone, the pricing is not a shock. Worldwide, the smartphone market has grown from about 20M per quarter in late 2006 to about 35M per quarter today, so 4.1M across 20 countries isn’t unreasonable.
Now for those who are just used to voice/texting plans, these prices for plans that include data are a shock. So most will not move, and I think, Apple expects that. But many will consider it for the first time. And given that about 1B phones are sold a year worldwide (there are over 2B subscribers and about half change phones every year), if even 1 out of 50 people shift over, that’s another 20M phones.
And as the AppStore gets rolling, and MobileMe gets enhanced, and people begin to consider it again and again, the number of people willing to switch to smartphones and add $30 data plans will continue to grow, in the same way that people began switching from dialup to broadband, and began paying another $20-$30 a month.
CensusTaker,
My remarks were not to say that those two markets would make Apple’s success any less on Friday – I’ll be in line here in Rockville, MD doing my part to see that they sell well!
My point was, that the article noted that some countries could sell as many as 7000 in that weekend, yet, due to the protests over plan costs, those two countries probably won’t.
One good product tied to another BAD product really doesn’t bode well for sales. At l;east not in those two specific markets.
Where it is not so tied, it will undoubtedly do quite well, Zune Tang notwithstanding…
Let’s say Apple does sell 45 million iPhones next year…what if 5% of those people also buy a Mac for the first time. Do the math. The halo effect is IN effect.
@Blue Dream,
“Let’s say Apple does sell 45 million iPhones next year…what if 5% of those people also buy a Mac for the first time. Do the math. The halo effect is IN effect.”
…and to think that a large chunk of that 5% would buy a Mac because they think you need a Mac to work with in iphone!
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… then Snow Leopard can’t get here quick enough. Need that tight, stable code for all of those new Mac switchers…
CensusTaker…
‘Canada and New Zealand, as with most other things in world affairs, simply do not matter.’
As far as the above statement goes…why then does the US beg for our freshwater, oil, lumber and other NON IMPORTANT things?
Remember…the phone was invented here!
Telia’s plan in Denmark is not THAT bad, since you’re only locked in 6 month.
After than 1/3 is slashed of the price, and – I bet – a lot more, when additional carriers will start selling it.
The only question for the customer is: Do you want it now, or cheaper in 6-12 month?
I know what I want
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@ Sherm
For god’s sake, ixnay on the public announcements about the umberlay, oilay, and fresh aterway up here.
Word: SHUSH!!
Canada – You’ve been well and truly Rogered!
Hey Zuney! Haven’t seen you around for a while. Where u been?
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I believe that Apple will sell 1 500 000 phones on first weekend
Apple have truly reinvented the mobile market and it will take a while for the carriers to readjust.
Only the US and UK are offering unlimited data. It will be interesting to see how much data you get through with basic web usage. Part of that data will be ads which could be annoying if they start costing you money.
In Aussie, there are three competing carriers but there does seem much price dropping there yet.
No Kool Aid drinkers on this site. We only sip
” rel=”nofollow”>Tang!
“225,000 units sold in the USA, 75,000 in the United Kingdom, and about 7,000 more in each of the other 18 countries that will sell it”
Er – in the UK yesterday a stock of 250,000 were made available for online pre-order at 8am. Three hours later they’d all been reserved.
I think he may have underestimated demand.
The price is so high
For you our non-US friends
To lower demand
I drink the same Tang and eat the same crap that Zune Tang does. That’s why we’re on the same intellect level.
“I drink the same Tang and eat the same crap that Zune Tang does. That’s why we’re on the same intellect level.” Ha. ha. ha.
Umm, well no… you are a hater while Zune Tang is a satirist. I doubt that the two of you share any degree of intellect. My first clue? That you even presume to make a claim of intellectual capacity. Generally, that is the first sign of a weak intellect. Persons with great intellect rarely make claims regarding their own capacity. They let their words speak for themselves.
Now run along and play nice with the other children…
It’s ironic that Ha ha. ha. thinks “we” don’t get it, and thinks he does. As Steve516 said, ZT is Apple all the way. He is a very good satirist, and is definately NOT an idiot Doze fanboi.
@ZuneTang… Koolaid is better than Tang and from what I have heard, all of us AppleFanBoiz drank APPL Juice!
As for the sales of the iPhone G3 – here in Oz – the three telcos have already said that there is more demand than phones available. One company (Optus) told people if they had not put down an initial deposit, they would not receive an iPhone (40,000 deposits were taken in the first 12 hours after the WWDC announcement).
So obviously there is demand somewhere.
Stunt math…
(45 million units) multiplied by (average net margin of $200-400) =
2009 net revenue increase of … $9-18 billion.
Plus revenue increases from other hardware….
Maybe one of you MBA types can provide some more cogent analysis.
@O:
The stock price rises.
By the year 2010 we’ll all have G3 AND BE LOOKING FORWARD TO THE G4 IN TIME FOR XMAS!
Zune is of course satirising the likes of Ha Ha Ha, at least the real one. Actually thinking about it not too sure whether Ha Ha Ha’s DNA has reached the complexity where he even merits that lowly form of wit.
@O:
“The stock price rises.”
Even my little brain was able to wrangle that probability from the headline, but to really earn the donut… holding the P/E at 30, what would the new price be?
MW: Income… really, how does it do that?
@ O:
You got me, I was being a smart ass. I wouldn’t mind getting an educated guess on the price either.
…Yes but Jim Cramer says ever iPhone sold makes Steve Jobs a little sicker and a little weaker.
So take that Apple Stock Price!
What I find interesting is that nobody seems to be taking Rogers to task with how much they charge for Blackberries . They’re really not charging any more for the Iphone so what Canadians should be saying is Roger’s whole fee structure sucks, but just don’t make it seem that it’s their Iphone policy that is flawed. Now if one of you Canucks can tell me how many Crackberrys has Rogers sold to date and if it’s in the millions then I’m afraid you’re out of luck with any protest not to buy the Iphone because it just wont matter.
From the “more here” over on page/story about Steve talking with some folks
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/17768/
“… but personally I’m a big-bang guy.” For the first time that day he smiled. “The risk with a fast burn,” he continued, “is that it exposes you to your enemies. You’re going to need a lot of money to fight thieves.”
And boy does he have that patented
What we saw year ago with 1st jPhone
What we’ll see this week with 2nd jComing
And why is good to have $20 Billion in bank
Change the World™
BC