“Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Apple Inc. shares to $210 from $185, saying it expects the company’s iPhone unit sales to double in 2009 at the new $199 price point,” Ratul Ray Chaudhuri reports for Reuters. “‘…We believe this is realistic, if not conservative,’ the investment bank said in a note.”
“Morgan Stanley expects 27 million iPhones to be sold in calendar year 2009 with an average revenue of $550 per unit,” Chaudhuri reports.
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “MIke in Helsinki” for the heads up.]
MacDailyNews Note: That average revenue of $550 per unit figure is because carriers are subsidizing iPhones (paying Apple for the devices’ full cost upfront) and while recouping that initial outlay with service plans and subscriber gains.
Yeah, so do I.
Who doesn’t?
iPhone Bitch!!!!!
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in other news, RIM will be dead by 2010……
March 1, 2007: Morgan Stanley expects 8 million iPhones to be sold in 2007.
“… saying she believed the market is underestimating the likely success of the iPhone.
April 18, 2008: Morgan Stanley reproaches gullible CEOs for believing in 8 million iPhones to be sold in 2007. (Actual number was 4 million.)
“Ms Huberty said European mobile executives seemed to have become over-excited by the hype surrounding the iPhone at the time of its US release on the AT&T;network last June.”
June 18, 2008: Morgan Stanley expects 27 million iPhones to be sold in 2009.
True, Morgan Stanley has a bad track record in predicting iPhone sales. But I feel we can trust their 2009 prediction. Why? Because this time they say:
we believe this is realistic
8 million
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/12807/
not 8 million
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/telecoms/article3770932.ece
so he assumes the carriers pay apple $500 for the 8 GB model and $600 for the 16GB model? with building costs of around $100 + maybe $50 in R&D;, marketing, packaging, transportation and other costs that is $400 in earnings per unit before 30% taxes. multiply with 30 million, roughly half of that accounted for in 2009, which makes 4,2 bn after taxes in EARNINGS MORE in 2009, which is roughly $5 a share for the iphone in 2009 alone. (+$5 a share from mac, ipod and other businesses) which makes $10 a share earnings in 2009. with an average multiple of 30 that allows aapl reaching $300 in 2009. with his numbers he should have given a price target of 300 over the next 12 month. something wrong with my math or are all the analysts just clueless (as always).
Morgan is saying Apple will sell, at a minimum, 27 million iphones in 2009, at $550 each, about $15 billion. Assuming the mac/ipod business grows at a slower rate than it has, sales should be at least $40 billion that year, for a conservative total of 55 billion. According to Morgan Stanley, that rates a new high $10 above where it was 6 months ago, or about 15 percent higher than it is now. Is something wrong with this picture?
Gee, considering Apple will be launching iPhone in more than 10 times the countries it’s been available in thus far in 2008, and the price is half of what it was, PLUS, Apple has added more features and improved battery life, I’d say doubling their sales is VERY conservative.
Quadrupling sales would even be a conservative estimate. I know they won’t have the full year to record those sales, but lets face it, a huge chunk of sales will come in the first month, and then there’s the holiday season.
Oops, for some reason I thought they were talking ’08. Disregard.
I noticed iPhone competitors dropping the price of their cell phones $100-275. For they know the jig is up.
Quote shen:
“in other news, RIM will be dead by 2010……”
Why wish ill on this company? It’s not like they are evil, like Microsoftie. RIM puts out a good product at a fair price and backs it up. What’s wrong with that? What’s wrong with a little competition for Apple? Competition is good. Only bad companies should have ill will wished upon them. I hope Microworst dies.