“Two successive Microsoft chief executives have long tried, and failed, to refute what we might call the Single-Era Conjecture, the invisible law that makes it impossible for a company in the computer business to enjoy pre-eminence that spans two technological eras. Good luck to Steven A. Ballmer, the company’s chief executive since 2000, as he tries to sustain in the Internet era what his company had attained in the personal computing era,” Randall Stross reports for The New York Times.
“Empirical evidence, however, suggests that he won’t succeed. Not because of personal failings, but because Mother Nature simply won’t permit it,” Stross reports.
“Maybe this was why Mr. Ballmer flirted with Yahoo,” Stross reports. “That prize, however, seems a mirage. You can’t merge-and-acquire your way around the Single-Era Conjecture. Just ask I.B.M., which gobbled up Lotus Development Corporation to no avail.”
“It’s Google, of course, that has developed the musculature to step forward and lay claim to being Microsoft’s successor as industry leader in the Internet era,” Stross reports.
“It’s no secret that Microsoft’s online businesses have failed to gain leading market positions. But what is not widely appreciated, perhaps, is that the company’s online initiatives have lately been doing worse than ever,” Stross reports.
“In the 2006 fiscal year, Microsoft’s online services produced a $74 million loss after the previous year’s profit of $402 million. Since then, the numbers have become uglier, as Microsoft’s online segment has added employees and absorbed growing sales and marketing expenses. In the 2007 fiscal year, the online businesses lost $732 million. In the next nine months, through March 31 this year, they recorded a loss of $745 million, almost double the amount in the period a year earlier,” Stross reports.
“According to Hitwise, an Internet research firm, Google’s share of searches in the United States has increased to almost 67.9 percent in March 2008 from 58.3 percent in March 2006. During the same period, Microsoft’s share has dropped to 6.3 percent from 13.1 percent,” Stross reports.
More in the full article here.
Microsoft made its fortune on the back of general tech ignorance in the 1980’s and ’90’s. “Hey a PC is a PC, right? And besides, Joe from work told me to get one of them Dells.” That level of ignorance, Microsoft’s lifeblood, has begun drying up. Everyone who gets a Mac and tells their friends and family about it increases the evaporation rate exponentially.
Direct link via YouTube here.
Microsoft never learned to think different…
The never reached their prime, and they likely never will. They’ve been living off of the winning lottery ticket IBM handed them in 1981. It made them fat, dumb and happy. Now that the lottery winnings are nearly used up, they’re just fat and dumb.
As I say once a month to my girlfriend, “bleed baby, bleed.”
“Yes.”
Apple and Google got around Microsoft the same way. Apple did it with one button, and Google did it with one line of text and a blank box.
Keep It Simple, Stupid.
Microsoft’s crash. Does anybody doubt it’s close?
Is it me or does Ballmer look like he’s squeezing out a really big brown Zune in that photo?
Microsoft isn’t going to crash (though MSFT might), they’re just going get a lot smaller.
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/126/believe-it-or-not-hes-a-pc.html
Innovation is not in their company culture. They’ve spent the last decade plus living off momentum and paranoia.
That’s no way to create.
Oh yeah, and the soulless bean counter is running the company.
As important as MS’s decline is, there is more important things going on. Like for instance, my life. I have MacTheRipper, strips my drm fine, but I can’t get my stripped movies into itunes so I can watch them on my apple TV. Please help me.
Thanks
all you need to know about tech today is that “Apple” is a noun meaning ‘cool stuff’, “Google” is a verb meaning ‘search’, and “Zune” is a noun meaning ‘turd.’
knowing that, how long will it take for “Microsoft” to mean ‘failed expectations’?
@jarrettdailynews
1. dump ripper. 2. get hand brake, rip, drag, drop. 3. there is no 3.
done.
Handbrake = FTW.
Works on every device, with easy preset selectings.
Full of Win and Awesome.
Windows user prayer: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Mac user prayer: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Linux user prayer: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Unix user prayer: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Enterprise pc user prayer: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Home pc user prayer: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Entire planet is praying: “Dear Lord please help the title of this article to be true! Please Lord!”
Amen.
Check out Ballmer getting egged and screamed at during a Hungarian conference:
(No, it’s not a rickroll.)
(No, it’s not a rickroll.)
iCal’ed.
What rubbish. Mother Nature has nothing to do with Microsoft’s decline. MDN’s take is spot on. They got lucky in the first place, riding Dos, but they lacked and still lack inovative ideas and a committment to quality. You can’t fool all of the fools all of the time, and right now all those fools are growing some brains and M$ is failing.
@ Ampar
He really didn’t think that move through, did he? {snicker}
I’m embarrassed for both of us.
@Ampar:
“(No, it’s not a rickroll.)”
Nope. Here’s the Hungarian original:
http://mf.index.hu/player_ng.swf?file=/tech/ballmer/ballmer_tojas-text
Gizmodo says:
“Microsoft has midterm contracts with the state in Hungary for “way cheaper than from the store” Campus-licences. This costs billions (in HUF, 160HUF=1USD) for the state and makes students stuck in the Microsoft-world, not knowing Linux etc.”
Fuck people over enough over so many years and in the end they begin to get a bit fed up with it. Throwing eggs may not be the best way to make your point — though neither is throwing chairs — but it’s not surprising when you know the cause, is it?
Years and years of shady deals, bribes, in and out court rooms …
If you’re gonna egg Steve Ballmer, you gotta get an aisle seat, man.
DON’T LOOK AT IT, MARION!!!
Shipoopi !!!
The Hungarian egging was odd. I would have expected the others in the audience to tackle the crazy nut.
Speaking of Hungary, I sold a Mac SE back in 1991 at Georgetown Univ., by sticking up a flyer, and some Hungarian students came to buy it. After they told me their sad story, I just gave the Mac to them for free. I hope my generosity was one little step in the Apple revival!
Here on the beautiful west coast, we have a long tradition of loud, clinically insane TV salesmen, often dressed as cowboys. From Cal Worthington cars to local heroes like Ted Sadler’s Mattress Ranch spots. Steve Ballmer was a fine specimen of this beast, though his High Society mocking always came off a bit gay.
And if history is any guide at all, this can only mean that Microsoft will one day be run… by this guy.