Apple primed to shock the naysayers yet again

“This week, you can bet the true believers around Apple’s Cupertino headquarters are thinking back to 2001, while loading up on some suddenly discounted shares. Talk about an after-Christmas bargain: Apple stock is trading at about $140, 30 percent off its December 28 high of $202.96. That’s about the same place where Wall Street valued the stock six months ago, before it became clear that the new iPhone would sell nearly 4 million units in 200 days,” Jon Fortt writes for Fortune.

“The most recent ding to Apple stock came Wednesday, after the company turned in the best quarter in its history. The stock dropped nearly 11 percent. Depending on whom you ask, the stock got hammered because of soft iPod growth, tepid revenue guidance, or plain old investor fear,” Fortt writes.

“But there’s also plenty of reason to believe Apple can innovate through this downturn like it did the last. First is stability. Apple has stockpiled more than $18 billion in cash, giving it more than enough cushion to think big, take risks, and make mistakes,” Fortt writes.

“Second is the iPhone. Like the iPod before, it’s a hit — even though it is solely distributed through AT&T in the U.S. and through other exclusive carrier arrangements abroad, it seems to be gaining traction… Apple sold about 300,000 iPhones in just the first two weeks of 2008. If that pace keeps up — and it easily could as Apple expands the iPhone’s availability in Europe and Asia — then Apple could sell as many iPhones this quarter as it did during the holidays, an impressive feat,” Fortt writes.

“Last is the iPod touch. Largely glossed over in Apple’s earnings announcement was the executive team’s emphasis on the fact that the company doesn’t view this thing as just an iPod — it’s a wireless computer. And the iPod touch will fully come into its own at the end of February, when Apple opens the door for outside developers to build software for it. What the iPod touch becomes then is an open question,” Fortt writes. “Will Apple invent a way for it to become a viable gaming platform? Will clever engineers come up with cooking programs, GPS attachments, video recorders, or other ideas to spark demand for the gadget?”

“If so, watch out. Sales of the iPod touch and iPhone might just push the stock price higher again — and if so, Apple executives will relish the chance to tell the story of how investors, once again, underestimated Apple,” Fortt writes.

Full article here.

57 Comments

  1. My wife just stayed at home with a sick kid yesterday. She decieded to get a movie on Payperview. I asked how much it cost, $3.99 she replied. Hmmm, seems Apple rental pricing is just right.
    So to recap: Sick kid, 6 degrees outside, wife does not want to leave to go to rental store. Once the tipping point hits for HD TVs in houses, then Apple’s plan will take off.

  2. Apple stock will boune back but 2008 is going to be a quite year for Apple innovation overall. Apple has just revised down the iPhone orders for the 2nd half and franky iPods may have hit their saturation point. Revenue will continue with iPhone contracts, music and movies via iTunes but no new software or Mac’s or hardware. Here in my opinion is what I see as the possible need for new products:

    -Video iPod: OK you gave us great movies now give us a better way to watch them on the go then the iPod touch. I want a bigger screen to watch the movies.

    -I want a new Newton: OK maybe a small table PC that allows me to look at my calendar, eMails and take notes while going from meeting to meeting without typing. Oh..by the way Mossberg over at the WSJ only got 3 hours on his MBA..not good.

    -Social Media Appications: iChat and iWeb are decent but there are a host of other better apps out there that do a better job. I don’t use iWeb because it won’t connect to my site without going through a 3rd party FTP developer. I don’t use my .Mac account for my websites so stop trying to force me use it.

    -Lion? OSX rocks but hey I don’t want to wait every 15-18 months for an upgrade to the next OSX.

  3. Stock buy back programs indicated weakness in the companies future plans. Apple doesn’t seem to be indicating any type of weakness in the companies strategy or plans.

    I’m still seeing iWork Mobile in the crystal ball & Apple making either a big acquisition “Adobe sized” or a few smaller acquisitions like “Avid” sized and “MOTU” sized. The few small acquisitions are more likely then a big acquisitions.

  4. Earlier, someone was suggesting a stock buyback. No way, it’s a huge waste of money. One need not look beyond the morons in the financial biz that bought up shares at the top of the market and are now selling out to foreign sovereign wealth funds at a heavy discount. How does that add to shareholder value? The truth is that it doesn’t.

  5. I missed the action yesterday. Should have sold my GE stock then. Still, I’d have been lucky to get AAPL for $133.84 yesterday … so, y’all buy it up to over $200 again, earn me several thousands of retirement income. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  6. “The low here in Atlanta last night was 19°F. And we think that’s cold. Go ahead and laugh.”

    Ah ha! You have given away your location! Now the search can begin…….hmmmm……no Ampars in the Atlanta phone book. Damn!!!

  7. The news is that all U.S. Taxpayers will be getting a Treasury Check soon.

    Not so fast, Ray. I know from personal experience (last rebate) that if one owes any back taxes there will be no check. The IRS will simply “absorb” it, just as they do yearly refunds. It’s a scam.

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