“For the 10th time, Bill Gates will inaugurate the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas by touting new Microsoft Corp. products and describing his view of the future of computing,” Brian Bergstein reports for The Associated Press. “Before you rush to the edge of your seat Sunday, consider this: Gates is a mediocre prognosticator.”
“In fairness, as the old joke goes, predictions are very hard, especially ones about the future. Scouting a technology on the horizon is one thing; it’s another to foresee the business-execution problems and competitive troubles that might waylay it,” Bergstein reports. “But hey, this is Bill Gates. That savvy guy who has spent more than 30 years atop what remains (for now, at least) the dominant entity in personal computing, a company that pours $7 billion a year into research and development.”
MacDailyNews Take: “For now, at least.” Good one, Brian. They should play him onto stage with “Hail to the Thief.” Maybe Gates will regale CES attendees with how you spend $7 billion per year on R&D and still get totally spanked by Apple for the last 30+ years?
Bergstein continues, “Since this is Gates’ last keynote before he leaves his day-to-day Microsoft duties to focus on philanthropy, it’s as good a time as any to scour his track record.”
MacDailyNews Take: Praise Jobs, this is the last time we have to hear ol’ Kermit squeak out another sleep-inducing yawnfest.
Bergstein continues, “Even when Gates has been right, he’s been wrong. Take that 2001 speech in which Gates prophesied PCs in 75 percent of American homes. He also said that within five years, the most popular form of the computer would be the Tablet, a sleek device that responds to handwritten commands from a pen-like stylus. Gates didn’t come close. IDC counted 3.3 million Tablet sales worldwide in 2007, just 1.2 percent of all PCs.”
MacDailyNews Take: Don’t worry, Apple will more than make up for Microsoft’s ineptitude on the tablet front.
Many more wrong predictions by Gates in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz for the heads up.]
I never did!!
I wonder if Jobs will every keynote CES someday?
Question.
Is it true Microsoft has yet to turn a profit on xbox/xbox360?
I find that amazing. Haven’t they sold more xboxes then wiis or ps3/ps3 have been sold?
Don’t they have to turn a profit someday on that division?
I am not trying to troll with these questions. I mean, how much did they invest into that division to not turn a profit yet?
From the article:
“First, the highlights.
They include Gates’ debut of the Xbox video game console at CES in 2001. The Xbox became Microsoft’s most successful piece of hardware.”
I would have guessed keyboards and/or mice.
Isn’t it time for another book?
Something like “The Off Ramp Ahead”?
Bill owns 97% of the world wide personal computer market and is the richest American on earth.
Steve, highly regarded as a genius around here, owns 3% of the world wide persoal computer market and is only very rich.
So, remind us how you get from that reality the conclusion that Bill and his company is dumb, stupid, inept and makes inferior products?
Some of the previous predictions and innovations and the analysts analysis are hysterical:
1995—Some analysts gasped that “Bob” put Microsoft way ahead of Apple Inc. in a crucial race to incorporate cartoon characters in PC use.
2002—Well, first Microsoft and partner companies had to design a new operating system and low-power chips for objects, plus a wireless transmission network for SPOT data. The initial output — some watches, a weather gizmo and a coffee maker — was far from revolutionary.
@ deepdish
I’m pretty sure that MS finally made around 160 million $$$ this past year on the X-Box.
Of course, they spent several billion on the X-Box in the previous years.
@How’s This
How about you start with the accuracy of those numbers?
Amazing they even let the guy talk……..seriously.
Expect to see a Zune Phone………soon…..2008ish.
Microsoft tablets suck ass. I have one for work. Handwriting recognition is terrible. Vista is horrible. Every one I’ve ever used sucks.
In a few short months, MS Windows market share will fall below 90%, a major milestone for Apple.
Revenge is best served cold, like a frozen Macbook up Ballmer’s fat ass. he he he.
@How’s this
“So, remind us how you get from that reality the conclusion that (MS) … makes inferior products?”
MS DOES make inferior products. People reach that conclusion because it is the truth.
It doesn’t have to be the best to sell more – maybe just the cheapest & good enough.
I for one, prefer my things to be better than “good enough”.
@How’s This
Candy outsells carrots. Which is better for you?
Listen carefully to Bill’s predictions! Take notes! Within the next months, you’ll exactly know what will really happen… since you’ll turnover everything he said.
It’s often usefull to know the wrong to grab the truth in it’s opposite…
Last chance to buy AAPL at below $180…
Again.
Shouldn’t we get an update on Microsoft’s Big Ass Table? Isn’t that suppose to come out some time soon?
So, remind us how you get from that reality the conclusion that Bill and his company is dumb, stupid, inept and makes inferior products?
And the Backstreet Boys and Micheal Jackson are the greatest entertainers in the world, are they?
Popular does not equal best. Market share is not always an indicator of usefullness and quality.
Bill Gates made his billions thru an illegal monopoly which he used to abuse partners and consumers.
You might as well cheer as loudly for every crack dealer driving a Hummer, because you obviously equate wealth with right, and to hell with virtue or ethics, or even the law.
7 billion a year on WHAT?
Much the same way we come to the conclusion you are dumb. They obviously screw things up and still seem to believe they’re right. Although, I’m sure their grammar is better than yours.
I thought Carlos Slim Helú surpassed Gates and Buffett in wealth.
seriously, no matter the vile putrid feelings that MDN has against Microsoft, there’s no excuse for that image. Why not portray a more professional image.
What do you loyal MDN readers think?
@ How’s This
“So, remind us how you get from that reality the conclusion that Bill and his company is dumb, stupid, inept and makes inferior products?”
Hmmmmm, maybe that they took 5 long years & untold amounts of money to put out a new “Revolutionary” brand spanking new Windows OS named Vista that has fallen on its face…???
I’ve never heard of Apple having to offer a previous OS due to customers complaints about a new OS release like Dell has (offering XP).
I have great respect for Bill G. & MSs contribution to the computing world, just sorry to see SO MANY LEMMINGS continue to use their crappy OS. Some have seen the light and are switching (all but 1 in my family). Others (my Bro-In-Law) are given computers from their employer and are not given any choice but to use Windoze.
@how’s this
Dunno… but what does it say about the 97% that bought the crap he sells? That’s the real question.
@Synthmeister
MS Also put aside $1 BILLION to pay for future xBox failures.
I was at Gates’ keynote last year (for work, not pleasure) and, not exaggerating, nearly fell asleep. I spent the first 15 minutes saying, “Yeah, could do that with my Mac five years ago.” then gave up trying to even follow.
This year I’m not gonna bother going, and will probably spend my time more constructively by catching up on my MDN commenting. Using my iPhone, of course.