“Apple’s stock hit a new high yesterday in the afterglow of a big Christmas for Mac computer and iPod gift-giving,” Brian Garrity reports for The New York Post.
Investors’ “expectations running high that the company will report record iPod sales and growing Mac business,” Garrity reports. “Also powering the stock – which ended the day up 15 cents to $198.95 – is growing speculation that Jobs may unveil a new slate of must-have gadgets – including an ultra-portable laptop and possibly an improved iPhone at next month’s Macworld conference.”
“Analyst estimates suggest that the company will sell 23 million to 25 million iPods by the end of the quarter, along with more than 2 million Macs and more than 2 million iPhones,” Garrity reports.
“The crossing of the $200-per-share mark tops a year of dramatic growth for Apple shares, which have traded as low as $76.77 over the past 52 weeks and crossed the $100 per share mark in May. Many analysts now have a near-term price target for the stock topping $225 a share or higher,” Garrity reports.
“Stephen Coleman, chief investment officer at St. Louis-based Daedalus Capital LLC, which owns about $7 million of Apple shares, told Bloomberg yesterday that he expects the stock will reach $600 in 18 months,” Garrity reports.
MacDailyNews Note: If you think Coleman’s crazy, here’s something to keep in mind: On April 2, 2007, with Apple shares opening at $94.14, Coleman stated that Apple would hit $200 per share in 2007. Many people called him crazy last spring, too. See: Daedalus Capital CIO: Apple Inc. will hit $200 per share in 2007 – April 02, 2007
“All the buzz is helping the company convert a growing number of PC users into Mac computer buyers,” Garrity reports. “In its most recent fiscal year ended in September, Apple sold 7 million Macs, up from 5.3 million the year before.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Citymark” for the heads up.]
i know what ad who is sexy here, there, and everywhere.
mw: husband, as in i can be all of that and the h[o]us[e]band.
call me now.
@Quadcore: Exxon Mobil is not the largest company in the world. Petrochina is worth $706.7b while Exxon Mobil is worth $499.5b.
I really think Apple could be worth $500b, so $600 a share is not too unrealistic.
There are companies and governments all over the world adding Macs and Linux systems at the expense of MacroSoftys market share (The entire US Military is dumping every internet exposed Windowz box and replacing them with a Mac XServe systems) . Vista’s a loser and and the revolution is just starting. Software developers are finding that Mac development is more open and cheaper, as you don’t have to pay Macrosofty for the privileged has Mac Development tools and compilers on a Mac are included. Mac Servers are also quietly gaining huge market share as Mac OS X Unlimited is vastly less expensive then Windows 2003 Server Enterprise 64 bit edition with it’s per user charge and on going license renewal fees and it’s much faster on top of it and more secure too.
So AAPL hitting $600.00 in 18 to 24 Months is a real possibility
Micros**t is losing out to Apple daily.
It’s a beautiful thing people, a beautiful thing.
Microsoft, at it’s peak value in 200, was worth well over $500b, so it’s not as if it completely unprecedented for a tech company to have that kind of market cap. The question is, can earnings keep pace. A share value of $600 = P/E of 150 today, which is ludicrous. But open up some new markets, grow in Europe, India, and China, and create more products that competitors can’t match then maybe, just maybe…
That should be “2000”, of course. In the year 200, Microsoft was only worth about 20 shekels.
Alot of things have to go right for Apple’s shares to hit $600. Like take 50% marketshare in PCs in five years, 20% of the cellphone market, that kind of thing.
Enderle is a total cretin without a clue. Check this one out.
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/blogs/rob/?p=178
Let’s try and not get bogged down in speculation about share prices, because that way lies madness.
However, we can theorise on the next step in Apple’s exponential increase in valuation – what will it take to get Apple to $325 billion?
That market cap should be perfectly within reach if Apple could get to around $9 billion in net profits; of course, that brings the next question which is how do they get to $9 billion in profits?
Several years ago, that would have required nearly $90 billion in sales: something like four times where Apple was at the end of the last financial year. But that was before the development of the gift that keeps on giving, namely the revenue commission from the various mobile network operators with whom Apple is partnering on iPhone.
If Apple doubles CPU unit sales to 4 million units per quarter, they can realistically generate around $23 billion in computer sales alone, which should bring in $2.5 billion in profits.
Next up is iPod: a lot has been written about ‘iPod Killers’ and the fact that Apple can only lean on the iPod for so long. This irrationally supposes that the iPod has to be perceived as a limited music or media device, whereas I would argue that the iPod is effectively Apple’s portable device family and can be as limited or open as Apple allows any given model to be followed by the imagination of the developer community. This frees iPod from the 350 million unit legend of the Sony Walkman: Walkman did one thing and it did it pretty well, but it had no protection against a rapidly evolving marketplace of digital solutions – the iPod doesn’t have that problem.
iPod can continue to grow as a product: Apple have sold nearly 102 million units in the 24 months to 30/09/07 and over one-third of those units were sold in the last six months. Apple could very easily sell 75 million iPod mobile devices annually at $220/unit, which is another $16.5 billion in sales and another $2.5 billion in profit: so there’s $5 billion.
Which brings us to the iPhone: my personal feeling here is that Apple could easily have 100 million customers in an active contract within three years. That’s 100 million customers throwing around a minimum of $5.75 billion into Apple’s bottom-line. Not to mention the $12.5 billion in sales and $1.5 billion in profits generated by the actual phone.
Throw in around $8 billion of low-margin iTS sales and Apple can make $12.25 billion in profit from $66 billion in sales. If – along with the wallet-bursting $25 billion in cash and assets that Apple will have in around three years – that’s not good for a $400 billion valuation, I’m not sure what is.
Interesting post, MCCFR. Thanks.
100 million iPhone subscribers in Japan should be top priority, considering they are itching to get it. Even if Apple has to reinvent the inner guts to do it, the iPhone needs to hit Japan before breaking into the China market. There is no end in sight, especially with a few cool upgrades.
I would like to see AAPL hit 300, then talk about a 600 price.
I just love the fact that WalMart cancelled their online music service…they had the best chance of anyone to get a slice of the pie. Amazons move yesterday to play with iPods says alot, too. Apple TV needs to be $199 to get anyone’s ears perked up along with the new movie services. Colored Fatboy Nano sales are going to be higher than anyone ever thought come Jan 15th…thanks again to the teenage girl buying market and the fact that they are a perfect fit for a stocking both visual and pricewise.
The absence of an Enderle-esque anti-Apple hit squad in Asia shouldn’t hurt, either.
Lower stock prices = higher beta. More speculation, more value swings. Nobody wants that.
Right?
If the stock hits $600 a share we won’t see C1 here anymore. She’ll be on a beach somewhere in the Caribbean sipping champagne while a cabana boy paints her toenails and asks her if she “would like the Salmon or the Lobster” for dinner.
@No Split
You’re definitely a troll and someone from the 90’s. All your points were invalid and lies.
Thanks for playing!
Guys, guys… I just got an email from Rob Enderle! I’ll post it, but I’m hoping he keeps talking, so stay tuned…
@ Jim – TIV
Come on, Jim. I’ll never get too rich to talk to my friends. What do you think I am, a Republican?
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What?!? Enderle sent a girl an email? I thought he was married to the other half of the Enderle Group?
“Macs stink.”
That smell is from you upper lip, troll boy.
No sh|t. I just replied to the second one. I’m hoping this goes the distance, but I’ll put it all on my blog at the end.
C1: You got Robbed? I hope you can get the stink of manure out of your inbox.
@ Ampar
Somebody’s gotta do the dirty work.
Maybe he’s hitting on you and either Mary doesn’t know or she wants in.
I’m not into mustaches.
I don’t like Robs, either.
“I’m not into mustaches.”
Yeah, you’d think Mary would dye hers or at least get plucked.