“I’ve gotten ahold of Piper Jaffray’s targets for Leopard and the news is rosey, to say the least: Piper estimates Leopard will contribute $240 million to Apple’s topline in the current quarter. Piper contends that its numbers might be a bit aggressive, based on what the company tracked when Tiger was released,” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC.
“When Tiger shipped, the installed base was about 12 million users. The installed base today is more than twice that; around 23 million users. About 15% of Mac users upgraded to Tiger in its first six weeks of availability. About 66% ultimately upgraded,” Goldman reports.
Piper “says the revenue sharing is greater than what has been factored into other analysts’ target prices,” Goldman reports. “Piper is now modeling Apple to sell 3.4 million iPhones this calendar year; 12.9 million next year, and 45 million by calendar year 2009. That 2009 figure is way ahead of the rest of the Street, but that’s because Piper is anticipating average selling prices to fall significantly by then.”
“Based on the revenue sharing agreement with AT&T, Apple pockets $18 per phone per month today. The firm’s original estimate was only $6.50. By the end of calendar year 2009, because of a decline in average selling prices, the number will be around $9,” Goldman reports. “For that reason alone, Piper is raising its target to $250 from $222.”
Full article here.