Apple’s iPhone could be even bigger than expected

“With the launch of the hugely hyped iPhone in a few weeks, momentum investors are driving Apple (AAPL) shares to unexplored territory. The stock has doubled in the past year, to 122. Apple’s market cap recently topped $100 billion for the first time,” Peter Burrows reports for BusinessWeek.

“Hard as it is to believe, all the excitement surrounding Jobs and his new toy may actually understate the impact of this device on Apple’s fortunes. Beyond the hysteria surrounding its June 29 launch, the iPhone has the potential for adding a totally new, $10 billion-a-year business within just a few years. If Apple can expand so-called smartphones from a luxury carried by corporate road warriors into an everyday tool for the masses—combining the functions of a BlackBerry and an iPod—Apple could soon see a new growth tear,” Burrows reports.

“If Apple’s goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seemed ambitious to some back in January when Jobs first unwrapped his new baby, few doubt it now. Wall Street speculation has gone from how much market share it can steal, to how much it can expand the overall smartphone market,” Burrows reports.

“Piper Jaffray Cos. (PJC) analyst Gene Munster thinks Apple could sell more than 40 million iPhones in 2009—enough to lift revenues more than 30% that year, and earnings by 40%,” Burrows reports. “Still, Apple will need to execute flawlessly. In units built and shipped, the iPhone launch will dwarf anything Apple has attempted. It plans to have 3 million iPhones ready for sale on June 29, two sources say.”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” and “Drunk Cheney” for the heads up.]

61 Comments

  1. The Hitch Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy notes that Disaster Area, a plutonium rock band from the Gagrakacka Mind Zones, are generally held to be not only the loudest rock band in the Galaxy, but in fact the loudest noise of any kind at all. Regular concert-goers judge that the best sound balance is usually to be heard from within large concrete bunkers some thirty-seven miles from the stage, whilst the musicians themselves play their instruments by remote control from within a heavily insulated spaceship which stays in orbit around the planet – or more frequently around a completely different planet.

  2. … fine weather for the concert here this afternoon. I’m standing here in front of the stage,’ the reporter lied, ‘in the middle of the Rudlit Desert, and with the aid of hyperbinoptic glasses I can just about make out the huge audience cowering there on the horizon all around me. Behind me the speaker stacks rise like a sheer cliff face, and high above me the sun is shining away and doesn’t know what’s going to hit it.

  3. If Apple has their way — and it looks they have been calling the shots all along — removing the 2-year agreement “barrier” will atrract thousands more subscriptions than anyone imagined. One of the biggest issues I had was that 2-year agreement. Without that, the iPhone is much more enticing.

  4. Ok, I’m as much of a Mac freak most of the people that read this site regularly (several times a day), but I just don’t think there is going to be that much of a histeria around the launch of the iPhone. I know lots of people who are looking forward to the launch, but none of them are planning on buying one the first day. Several are still living out old contracts that don’t end for another year. Others don’t have the budget for it right now.

    I think there will be a rush for the first day or so, but like when a new version of OS X is released most people will not upgrade for a few months or until they plan to buy a new machine.

    Don’t get me wrong. I think the iPhone is going to be a huge hit, but like the first iPod, it will be over the long term. I got a first gen iPod for Christmas that year, but I was the only one I knew that had one for at least a year. And I didn’t see them everywhere until after the mini’s and the shuffle’s came out. I think it will take a lot of people seeing the early adoptors actually using it before it really takes off. Say after Christmas or by this time next year when they come out with a new version.

  5. I think some people are OVERestimating how many iPhones will be sold. Most people need a regular phones, not a smartphone. Cost is a huge factor (phone + wireless plan). i, for one, don’t need nor want the current iPhone.

    Also, i think it’d be cool if Inkwell was part of the iPhone. If nothing more than for ‘cool’ factor and not as a main selling point. A ‘secret’ feature =) i used a newton 2100 years ago and it blew me away then. I think it’s still very impressive now.

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