Analyst predicts Apple to sell 45 million iPhones in 2009

“Apple’s iPhone launch is only weeks away, and Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is predicting that will signal the beginning of a skyrocketing climb leading to 45 million units sold in 2009. For calendar year 2007, he expects Apple will sell 3.2 million units, and 12.4 million in 2008,” Jeff Gamet reports for The Mac Observer.

Gamet reports, “Looking at the 45 million unit prediction for calendar year 2009, Mr. Munster commented, ‘While this may seem like a bold prediction, we believe a number in this area is not as far of a reach as some may think. Specifically, to reach iPhone units of 45 million, we believe the product will have 7.0 percent hand set market share in North America and 2.8 percent handset market share in the rest of the world.'”

“Based on Mr. Munster’s sales predictions, Apple will show a 17 percent revenue growth for calendar years 2007 and 2008, and a 19 percent growth in 2009 when looking at the company’s ratable revenue growth. Ratable revenue growth follows Apple’s subscription-style practice of accounting for iPhone and Apple TV sales over a 24 month period,” Gamet reports.

“Mr. Munster is maintaining his ”Outperform’ rating for Apple stock, and is raising his target price from US$140 to $160,” Gamet reports.

Full article here.

18 Comments

  1. This is the guestimate of all guestimates…2009???
    No one even knows what could be available in 2009.
    How about analysts worry about 2007/2008. Are these guys actually paid to predict 2009?
    What a waste of time for me.

  2. Less is more:
    So the “third world” uses prepaid cell phones eh? Wow you sound like a real world traveler. Here’s a little education: if you live in a third world country you are either too poor to have a fscking phone much less a CELL phone, or you are an agent of the government/royal family/multinational corporation whose job it is to repress the horde of poor for your own greed. Therefore, no, you’re not using a cheap phone on a prepaid plan. You ass. There is no “upper lower class”. There’s the wealthy few and the poor starving masses.

    Maybe you mean developing nation?

    MDN word: story, let me tell you one.

  3. Less is more,

    I believe that when he says “worldwide,” he is not referring to third world markets, he means places like Japan, Europe and Australia… Along with the US, those major markets should easily be enough to capture 2.8% marketshare with a product as revolutionary as the iPhone.

  4. I predict 75 million in 2009, even though manufacturers can produce only 20 million a year.

    They are raising expectations to impossible levels, and then complain that Apple doesn’t meet expectations.

  5. I think while analysts are guilty about “overstating” sales estimates for Apple, Apple itself outsmarts these analysts by “understating” what it actually hopes to sell, which privately is probably closer to the figure the analysts predict.

    Provided the iPhone doesn’t come up with some unexpected defects or shortcomings in actual-use conditions, I think the sky is the limit in this worldwide billion-phones-a-year market.

    An unrelated question, if someone would be kind enough to answer it: On the Apple site, the updated Boot Camp release says it supports Vista. My impression was that there were some big obstacles to running Vista on Macs. Have these problems been solved? And can ALL versions of Vista run with Boot Camp (and Parallels)?

  6. Comment to “me”:

    Currently, the fastest-growing cell phone market is Africa. As someone who travels there (especially to Kenya, Zambia, and some of the West African countries) I can tell you that you would be hard pressed in any city in Kenya, for example, to find anyone who didn’t have TWO cell phones (one for Safari.com and one for CelTel). Even in the small towns cell phone use is growing dramatically.

    This is also true for the countries of Southeast Asia: Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc: cell phones are hugely popular and very widely-adopted.

    I recommend this article from the NY Times, but there are many, many articles written about this phenomenon:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/25/international/africa/25africa.html?ex=1282622400&en=32b49363eac57aae&ei=5090

    So before you criticize others for their lack of experience in the world, you may want to spend a little time in developing countries yourself.

  7. I predict they will sell as many as they can make until they can make as many as they can sell, then they’ll sell as many as they can sell and make. Plus or minus fifty thousand.

    Guess who’ll be lining up early for an iPhone? The boys from Redmond! They’ll take a couple of hundred…just for research, y’know, for the various departments. Ballmer will take a few, just so he can crush one with his heel to make a point in some meeting. Ahh, who cares?

  8. Comment to “JS” about the comment made by “me”.

    JS, you have a very good point about the growth of cell phones in Africa and many other poorer nations. Another factor that is interesting is that it is actually cheaper for many people in these nations to get a cell phone compared to a landline because they don’t have the infrastructure for land lines. It is far cheaper to put one cell tower in the middle of a town or village than it is to run individual wires to everyone’s home.

    This is actually one of the reason’s that the US tends to not always have the best standards. The US is generally an early adopter of technology, which is generally good, but the technology often seems dated when newer tech comes out that other countries install. Case in point – the US was very late to reliable cell phone networks and PAL is a much better standard than NTSC. Just my observation.

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