“Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, during an on-stage interview at the CEO Forum with USA Today’s David Lieberman,” John Gruber writes for Daring Fireball.
There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get. – Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer
Gruber writes, “Strong words, and an awful lot of competitive FUD packed into one short paragraph.”
“I’ve stashed away a slew of ‘iPhone doubter’ links over the last few months from various pundits and analysts, and the iPhone’s price, by far, is the most frequently cited reason for predictions of doom in the marketplace,” Gruber writes.
Gruber writes, “Some of these pundits and analysts are morons. Ballmer, however, is a very smart man, but what he’s saying about the iPhone is going to make him look stupid if it’s successful. He clearly doesn’t get what makes the iPhone so appealing, and his dual obsession with the price and business users is baffling.”
“Maybe I’m the moron, but the way I see it, if the iPhone’s initial price is wrong, it’s too low, not too high. Don’t compare it to other smartphones, which, yes, nearly all cost less than $499 when purchased with a plan. Compare it instead to the prices of the iPod,” Gruber writes.
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Twilightmoon” for the heads up.]
Many have noted the “halo” effect. That the positive sales of ipods have led to many people exploring and ultimately buying macs. Unlike an ipod, the iphone actually runs OS X. How much larger will the “halo” effect be when millions upon millions of non-mac people become favorably impressed with the OS that runs in macs?
DIE DIE DIE!!!!! DEATH KNELL!!!!! ARGH!! (SHANK, TWIST) DIE!!!!
MDN Magic Word: “gone”
“He observes that the iPhone isn’t targeted at businessmen, it’s targeted at people.”
Sounds hauntingly familiar.
“Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, during an on-stage interview at the CEO Forum with USA Today’s David Lieberman,”
So he was “ON” an iPhone?
@ Falkirk
@Gandalf
I believe that Jobs dismissed flash based small capacity MP3 players right up until Apple released the shuffle.
Yes I believed he dismissed them too but when he did did he say “Apple is never going to……” or “Apple does not plan to….. enter the market/release such a product.”
Really it’s kinda like that phrase of advice to politicians ‘never say never’.
I could be wrong, maybe Apple did say something along more definitive at some time about some product but every time I recall seeing such a thing it has always been that the reporter has adopted the interpretation that suits their story best.
@ AlanAudio
“People don’t buy computers because they’re computers. They buy a computer to do something that they can’t otherwise do. That may be surfing the Internet, playing games or creating music and images, but few people buy a computer simply because it’s a computer.”
Hear hear. This is what the Windows Mobile Feature-Set Fetishists don”t see to be able to grasp. Sure, it can do a zillion things, but do I want to do any of those things? Do I even want to touch the device? It’s all about the Solution™. The best Solution to portable music, at the moment, is the iPod. By a long, long shot. The current crop of mobiles have lots of features… but the tool you hate to use is the last one you pick up, and that’s hardly the best solution to anything. And I bloody hate my phone, and I see nothing I the market compelling enough to change my mind.
No quite yet, anyway.
-c
MW: ‘used’ (rather than ‘promoted’)
the iPhone is not subsidised in any way. The $499 price tag is the full price. Apple has clearly said it was not subsidised.
This is very cheap, if you compare it to:
– the HP iPAQ 69×0 which is much more rudimentary (apart from the GPS antenna) which starts at $579 with a Cingular contract.
– a generic Pocket PC on the Dell website (the Asus Somo 650) which costs $520 without even having any phone features!
“Yes I believed he dismissed them too but when he did did he say “Apple is never going to……” or “Apple does not plan to….. enter the market/release such a product.”
I believe he used to say something along the lines of them being useless and that most people got them as a gift but forgot about them, because capacities were too low and interfaces were so bad. He was right about this, of course.
You can say “This sector sucks.” and mean it, if only because the right product for the sector hasn’t been created yet. You could say the same of Tablet computing, and you’d be correct. If the tablet market didn’t suck, then more people would use them. But price, utility, and interface robustness aren’t ready for most people’s expectations, so tablets are confined to professional applications and markets like medicine. Someone could certainly make a better tablet, that would appeal to these missing segments.
I think someone might.
-c
MW: ‘across’ (this antheap)
AlanAudio & Chrissy One…
Right ON!
Solutions. Solutions. Solutions!
Like the iPod or the original Palm, make the thing do a few things, but make them do what they do REALLY WELL.
Current cell phones are capable of doing lots of things, but how easy is it to actually use these “features”? If you can’t just use something easily and quickly, then you NEVER will use it.
If something has all the features in the world, but it’s difficult to access them, then what good are they?
How many people EVER learned how to program a VCR?
The promise of purpose means nothing!
“How many people EVER learned how to program a VCR?”
PERFECT analogy. And the answer is: almost no one. Not when you compare that to TiVo usage, for instance. The technology was there, the ability was there, but it was just too damned difficult to do what should have been a trivial task. TiVo created a better solution, and in turn opened up a market.
That market is now about to change again.
-c
MW: ‘and’ (the wind, it cries, Mary)
I don’t think Ballmer is a smart man. I think he was just smart enough to get something out the door that was barely functional and just smart enough to take advantage of people who are lazy and don’t do their homework. A fat wallet and does not make you smart! See http://www.ntk.net/media/dancemonkeyboy.mpg Anyone who, as CEO, jumps around like a Monkeyboy and screams “developers” and “I love this company” is also in the moron class. I will never give my money to someone who acts like that. I can’t believe so many sheep are still living on the Monkeyboy planet. Ballmer could at least use some anti-perspirant. He should buy Speed Stick!
I’ve never seen any compelling evidence of Bill Gate’s sublime brilliance, either. I’ve known a lot of software developers, and a lot of programers, and a lot of people with decent business sense. Bill has talents, but applying those talents to an emerging market at the right time hardly qualifies one as a ‘genius’. He didn’t see the internet coming. He doesn’t understand the consumer market. He can’t imagine new applications for computing, outside the smart-typewriter paradigm. He saw an empty car on the train and he jumped on, when no one else was looking. And he’s had quite a ride. Good for Bill. But calling him a genius for recognizing an opportunity is a stretch to say the least.
No tester, not even Apple, can know for sure what the battery life will be like after 6 – 12 months of heavy use with non-optimal charging.
Also comparing the battery life to a regular cell phone (which generally last the life of a 2 year contract) is invalid because the iPhone is also an ipod which suggests that it will get the usage of an ipod and cell phone combined. That is a lot of wear and tear on a battery.
You need to compare it to the price of an iPod PLUS the price of a phone, then it comes out to be a pretty decent value.
Simple answer to the original question in the title:
NO. Please, No it’s not.
> Ballmer, however, is a very smart man…
Really?
Battery life is probably not a problem as heavy users would need a protective holster (dock) that could carry the extra battery. iPhone is designed to create it’s own accessory ecosystem so who knows what people come up with.
It looks like the iPhone name could make sense after all, MacMobile type of name could fit well for a device that has a bigger screen. It could be called iMobile or something.
I should have mentioned this before, regarding price..
My xgf lost her cell phone and had to buy another one (this was with Verizon but I’m sure this is pretty much how it’d go with any carrier): 300 bux for the cheapest ones.. these were the so-called “free” handsets.
Cell phones are not “free” we just buy them with a plan, often 2 year plan. So, her 300 phone would have been “free” if she signed up for 2 year contract…. but how much do those cost? Well if you pay 50 dollars a month, and many people pay more than that, that costs you 1200 over 2 years..
Does anyone here think 1200 dollars is “free” ?
ChrissyOne:
“The current crop of mobiles have lots of features… but the tool you hate to use is the last one you pick up, and that’s hardly the best solution to anything. And I bloody hate my phone”
Chrissy, watch the reaction in the room when Steve Jobs announces that Apple is going to introduce a mobile phone. The roof practically blown off from people cheering so loud. You are NOT alone in hating your cell phone. A LOT of people really hate their cell phone, I don’t hate mine but I will NOT miss it.
One of the first things Jobs shows in his presentation, before he even goes into the features of the iPhone is the “business school 101 graph” on Smart, and Easy to Use. He puts regular cell phones about mid way on easy to use and low on smart, and so-called “smartphones” about mid way on smart but at the bottom of easy. Apple’s competitors DON’T get it, they think they are competing with the “features” of the iPhone based on what it can do, IGNORING the ease of use. That itself is THE key feature of the iPhone, and the rest of the industry ignores it at their own peril.
The iPhone won’t be 500 forever, they can count the days they have left when they can sell their crappy phones. Those days are rapidly coming to an end.
@ twilightmoon@mac.com
Agreed. I think it won’t be long before we think of mobiles as portable computers, and not phones at all. The phone is just one piece of the pie, but in the end it will be a minor one.
I think I read somewhere that Ballmer graduated class valedictorian. So he probably has a high IQ and gets good grades.
That’s not always synonymous with “smart”. Ballmer proves that every time he opens his fat mouth. We should all go edit his wikipedia page just for laughs.
Is the iPhone priced to low? No just like computers, but I pay for quality and the prices are far from to high. I wanted the features of the iPhone for a long time but all of these cell phone manufacturers and service providers cound’nt care less and now they will pay for it, except Cingular AT+T (lucky them, poor Verison LOL).
I just hope I don’t end up on some waiting list for the iPhone, 10 million phones is alot.
Steve Jobs is a one in a million and Ballmer is just typical of big business today, Dull and Boring INC.
Ballmer is the best that has ever happened to Apple. Thanks to him MSFT is like a sprinter with an open fracture in a shin. And AAPL just keeps pushing new products.
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MW: best