“Trends in the data that have to be massively disconcerting to Microsoft management (not to mention its external shareholders). Dripping, gloppy Apple envy coming from the top. Incredulity at the public’s lack of understanding of Vista’s greatness. These are not signs of a company, of a culture, of a management team doing well. They are failing. Failing to understand their customers. Failing to understand the tone of the market. Failing to understand the kind of messaging that is necessary to get people excited about their products. And yes, failing to transition into the Consumer Era of Computing, a phenomenon I had written about in a post about six weeks ago,” Roger Ehrenberg writes for SeekingAlpha.
Ehrenberg writes, “And I’ve got to say that this latest leg in the Microsoft/Apple battle bears stunning similarity to the duel (although it is hard to have a duel when one of the participants is already dead) between Sony and Nintendo in the PS3/Wii war, while a story that still needs to be fully played out looks increasingly like the nimble, adaptive, consumer-focused company kicking the crap out of the Grand Dame of Gaming. And I am sure over the ensuing months and years we will see more of this stuff happening, where the more consumer-centric, lighter, friendlier applications will dominate the legacy titans of yesteryear. It is all just beginning, and the first and highest profile casualty may well be Sony, closely followed by Microsoft.”
Ehrenberg rips Gates for his disastrous February 1st interview with Steven Levy of Newsweek (see: Bill Gates has lost his mind: calls Apple liars, copiers; slams Mac OS X security vs. Windows), “Are you kidding me? Bill sounds a little like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, and that he is getting ready to boil Steve Jobs’ bunny. First off, Bill, after having spent an amount exceeding the GDP of several sovereign nations – $500 million – to launch Vista, don’t you think you could have spent even a little of that on media training? THAT is your elevator pitch? Sorry, Bill, but you’re not getting the VC funding you desire. You’re not even getting out of the elevator. Your answer on security: poor. Your paranoia and irritation at Apple’s successful branding and image-making? Nauseating… The Apple threat and a changing world is making you become unhinged.”
“Bill’s got a bunch of reasons to feel pretty lousy. Microsoft has never been as vulnerable as it is right now. And the blogosphere is all over this, particularly as it relates to Vista,” Ehrenberg writes. “We may be witnessing an historic changing of the guard, which takes place in every generation.”
Much more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “chrissyone” for the heads up.]
Here’s our take from January 10, 2005: “As we have always said, even as many short-sightedly waved (and continue to wave) the white flag, the war is not over. And, yes, we shall prevail. For the naysayers: In 1929, Ford held just over 61% of the U.S. market for automobiles. GM’s market share stood at just 12%. Ford was thought to be invincible, with GM regarded as a niche auto maker. Probably, some analyst at the time said, ‘The reality is, long term, GM will always be a niche player.’ But, in 1936, just seven years later, Ford held just 22% of the market for new automobiles while General Motors held a 43% share. No company is invincible. Not even Microsoft.”
Related articles:
Analyst Ehrenberg: Microsoft’s Xbox 360: Failure-in-a-Box – April 18, 2007
Apple takes dead aim at Microsoft’s Windows Vista in latest ‘Get a Mac’ ad (with video) – February 06, 2007
Bill Gates has lost his mind: calls Apple liars, copiers; slams Mac OS X security vs. Windows – February 02, 2007
Net Applications: Apple’s Mac market share continues rise, hits 6.22% in January 2007 – February 01, 2007
Bill Gates lists Microsoft ‘innovations’ that Apple has offered Mac users for years – January 30, 2007
Apple larger than Microsoft by 2010? – January 29, 2007
Gates bristles over Vista, Mac OS X comparisons – January 29, 2007
Microsoft about to lose the software business just as IBM lost the PC business in ‘80s – July 26, 2006
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005
Apple vs. Microsoft rivalry heats up again – January 10, 2005
Watching Microsoft’s leadership has become a bit comical. Fortunately for MS, “the blogoshere” is not the general public, so it’s not close to being “dead.” But the only way to not died over the course of the next ten years is to get some new people (not Gates or Ballmer) at the top, providing leadership that is not so externally comical. Releasing a half-baked product and then throwing money and the Windows monopoly at it until it “eventually” dominates is not going to work anymore.
The funny part is that this isn’t even the article I submitted. It was this one:
http://www.macnn.com/blogs/?p=287
Oh, thanks MDN, for removing fake meez. -_^
Ack-a-flack in ma back-a-dack. Lack ack ack AAACK! Poof. Oof a dee agla ina Jobsa took-took ma gloriana kaa. Mora APPLA. Mora APPLA!
CHAIR! CHAAAIR!
Ballmer’s gone Pentacostal on us.
-c
MW: ‘leaders’ (often fail)
Is it me or is Stevey making sense?
Translation?: Stabbed in the back. Poof. Jobs stole my glory car. More Apple. More Apple! Chair. Chair!
Ballmer has apparently joined the Church of Jar Jar Binks.
Great Gungans! Wesa free ! ! !
And apparently, Bill the Cat is writing some of the prayers.
“Thbbbt!”
(Glory car? Are there holes drilled into the doors and trunk?)
Maybe, “Off! When I wasn’t looking, Jobs took my glory in the car”
Eww!
Wait until the average joe realizes they can get by with neooffice at home. No more Ms office. Wait until the new generation realizes they can use ubuntu. People are becoming mroe computer savy.
Windows doesn’t need to be the default OS.
Articles like this disgust and turn off people to Apple
It almost makes one feel sorry for Bill Gates and Microsoft.
It’s nothing but foaming at the mouth rhetoric.
Microsoft does understand it’s customer the buisness and enterprise market very well. So well in fact that Apple doesn’t even dare to trend.
Microsoft has over 95% of the PC market and a large portion of the server market.
Microsoft has a huge market of the console game market.
Just leave that 800lb gorrilla alone, it’s better sleeping.
Ehrenberg: “Steve is a rock star. Bill looks like he’s been living under a rock.”
He, he, he, I was chuckling to myself when he compared Dr. Evil to Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction.
Over on the “Nexus of the Universe” Paul Thurrott, who must sense that things are not going as well as hoped, is gently nursing his market-share obsession to comfort himself and adopting a passive-aggressive attitude to Apple and Apple users.
Yeah, “market share”, Paul – by which you mean share of the market in OSes, as if Apple, like Microsoft, only sold software licences, which you damn well know they don’t.
The thing to bear in mind is that Apple is more than half as profitable as Microsoft. Microsoft has to have a LOT of those licenses to stay profitable. This is why it is so fear-ridden, and spends so much time spitting like an angry cat at Apple and the Linux vendors … when it’s not badmouthing Google or Adobe or the Chinese –
http://wilshipley.com/blog/2007/02/piracy-reduction-can-be-source-of.html
– or whoever else.
“It’s nothing but foaming at the mouth rhetoric.”
Like this guy:
http://pumanews.com/
Careful, you loose 5 IQ points every minute you look at his site!
OK so we all agree Bill has become unhinged (Ballmer always was) but I’m thinking WiseGuy is unhinged too. To say an article like this turns people off Apple?? He’s nuts.
One big problem is Ballmer’s dripping gloppy hands at MS’s helm.
Wonder what’ll happen first: the mutiny, or the shipwreck.
Like they say, even the rats know when to jump ship…
For the naysayers: In 1929, Ford held just over 61% of the U.S. market for automobiles… Ford was thought to be invincible
Ford’s main problem was Ford thought FORD was invincible! The main market killer (besides the Depression) was when they completely shut down production for several months to retool for the Model A. Ford dealers had no product, their market share got screwed, and Ford’s been a runner-up ever since.
Does anyone see the parallels to MS? An invincible attitude, a very costly management decision, an extended period with no new product, competitors with good product ready to be noticed…
In the end the Model A sold well & kept Ford going. What if it would’ve been a complete dud, an early Edsel? What if dealers would’ve demanded (and gotten) the Model T back?
Microsoft can take some comfort in their current tremendous market share.
Microsoft isn’t going anywhere, after all they still have hundreds of billions of dollars to lose. Expect an Xbox phone and a Zune video arcade some time soon.
Yeah, but is anybody going to care?
What WiseGuy means is that the article disgusts him personally. Of course, he was already turned off Apple, so he just threw that in there for effect.
As for Bill Gates, he has been stepping in it big-time, to the point where everybody is noticing; not just the fans of the opposing team. Microsoft looks very very incompetent right now, and at the highest levels. Despite the fact that I look upon this situation with glee, I have to ask myself…
Why?
Why is Microsoft falling apart at the top levels? Yes, you all will say it was inevitable and it was bound to happen, etc. etc. But how does that explain all the years when Gates and Microsoft managed their media image quite successfully (if not elegantly). What changed? Is Gates literally becoming unglued? Has he always been ready to snap the moment Apple saw any major success? This seems unlikely, as Apple has had major successes in decades past without this effect. What exactly is throwing him off his game so much. Ballmer never had a game, but Gates?
Something is missing from this picture. They still have a huge market share. What’s got up their noses all of a sudden?
Articles like this disgust and turn off people to Apple
It almost makes one feel sorry for Bill Gates and Microsoft.
Hey WiseGuy—
Am I somehow missing the satire here? Are you just making fun of yourself or are you completely out of your mind? You wouldn’t be related to that other wise guy, ZuneTang, would you? At least he was entertaining!
Just leave that 800lb gorrilla alone, it’s better sleeping.
Now this I agree with! Microsoft is definitely better off sleeping. If it wakes up, it might panic and jump out a window or something. You’re not in Kansas anymore, pal.
Why is Microsoft falling apart at the top levels? Yes, you all will say it was inevitable and it was bound to happen, etc. etc. But how does that explain all the years when Gates and Microsoft managed their media image quite successfully (if not elegantly). What changed?
What changed is that Microsoft, due in large part to their ruthless business practices, had almost no competition for many years, which allowed them to sell huge quantities of substandard products without significant opposition. I think Microsoft’s downfall began when it launched the Longhorn project—a perfect example of one’s reach exceeding one’s grasp. They simply weren’t up to the challenge. Microsoft’s inability to deliver this product created a vacuum that someone was bound to fill sooner or later. As it happened, Apple had bought NeXT, rehired Steve Jobs and was poised to take advantage of just such an opening. The rest, as they say, is history. Apple scored success after success in the years that followed, while Microsoft kept falling flat on its face. How long can a situation like this continue before it starts to have a serious effect on the balance of power?
Responding to customer demand Dell has restarted selling new PCs with Windows XP installed on them.
PC users revolt and demand archaic and obsolete technology. Man, that’s got to be a swift kick in the nads in Redmond.
“This is really odd,” said Michael Silver, research vice president at analysts Gartner. “On new PCs, consumers usually do want the latest and greatest.”
I guess that this is empirical evidence enough that Vista ain’t so great. Don’t worry, PC users, Microsoft is working feverishly to release Vienna, you know, the best OS since Vista. You can buy Vienna in about three or six more years. Betcha feel better already.
The article has atrocious grammar.
This flowchart is a bit old but germane to this level of discussion. From the website bbspot. Maybe this was posted back in Feb, I don’t recall seeing it.
Pass it on to your windows friends before they feel the need to upgrade.
http://www.bbspot.com/Images/News_Features/2007/02/vista_upgrade_flowchart.pdf
Is gloppy even a word?