“Apple has finally begun shipping pre-orders of its Apple TV wireless set-top, according to news reports. The device can stream media stored on your PC to your TV including music, pictures and 720p High-Definition video,” Phillip Swann writes for TV Predictions. “The company has set the price at $299, but I’m here to tell you that it will ultimately have trouble giving them away.”
Swann writes, “Yes, Apple TV will bomb — and here’s why:”
1. Limited Uses
2. Set-Top Fatigue
3. Compatibility & Confusion
4. Inconvenient
Swann writes, “So, although the tech-intelligentsia will slobber over Apple TV and call it the Second Coming, Apple TV will fail to reach beyond the cultish Mac audience, probably topping off at about three million homes.”
Full article, Think Before You Click™, here.
Good news for Apple! This is the strongest indication yet that Apple TV will be a raging hit as Swann has proven to be uniformly wrong when it comes to understanding Apple products and predicting their success.
Read Swann’s previous idiotic predictions:
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005
Related articles:
Mossberg hands-on with Apple TV: ‘beautiful design, easy-to-use, classic Apple: simple and elegant’ – March 21, 2007
Apple TV projected to surpass TiVo, Netflix – March 20, 2007
Former Microsoft ‘Enthusiast Evangelist’ Gartenberg looks at impact of Apple TV – March 20, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 20, 2007
Apple shares rise on positive Apple TV analyst comments – March 19, 2007
Analysts: Apple to ride Apple TV + iTunes ‘Trojan horse’ into living room – March 19, 2007
Will Apple TV be even bigger than iPhone? – March 19, 2007
Apple adds 720p Apple TV high-definition export mode to QuickTime – March 19, 2007
Apple planning to buy Miglia to add DVR capabilities to iTunes and Apple TV? – March 17, 2007
Miglia debuts TVMAX+ Mac PVR, TV tuner, content provider for iPod, iPhone or Apple TV – March 16, 2007
Piper Jaffray expects 2 million Apple TV units to be sold in 2007 – March 16, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 15, 2007
Solution providers expect Apple TV to be hot seller – March 15, 2007
Apple TV could help kill traditional TV ads – March 14, 2007
Apple TV manufacturing ramp up to begin as early as today – March 12, 2007
Why Apple TV is more important than iPhone – March 12, 2007
Apple TV concept may eventually catch on with consumers – March 12, 2007
Apple CFO talks Apple TV, iPhone, Leopard and retail (link to full transcript) – March 07, 2007
PC Magazine: Why Apple TV matters – February 23, 2007
Bear Stearns: Apple TV and iPhone have changed the Apple story for the better – February 21, 2007
Deutsche Bank: Apple TV could take 30% of set-top box market within a few years – February 21, 2007
How do Apple TV and Elgato’s EyeTV work together? – February 16, 2007
Apple embraces casual gaming; iPhone, Apple TV to join iPod as gaming devices – February 09, 2007
Former GM of Microsoft’s Xbox Live Arcade: Apple TV to become video game console – February 08, 2007
ZDNet’s Graham: Apple TV hits a number of sweet spots, poised to make a big impact – January 25, 2007
Is Apple out to kill cable television? – January 25, 2007
RUMOR: Apple TV sales blowing away Apple’s internal expectations – January 25, 2007
Steve Jobs: Apple TV is the ‘DVD player for the 21st century’ – January 22, 2007
Apple TV beats out iPod, hits top spot on Apple Store sales chart – January 19, 2007
Report: first batch of 100,000 Apple TVs to ship this month – January 11, 2007
Steve Jobs moves to control the living room with Apple TV – January 10, 2007
Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
Apple premieres Apple TV: movies, TV shows, music & photos on your big screen TV – January 09, 2007
RUMOR: Apple may enter video game market – December 05, 2006
Could Apple become king of game consoles? – September 26, 2006
I actually agree with the set top fatigue point.
I would gladly pay $1000 for an Apple TV that was also a cable box and DVR.
Cable box is a possibility in the future with OCAP (Open Cable Application Program), but it will take a few years before OCAP is adopted on a widespread basis.
DVR may be on the way, based on the rumors the past few days about Apple possibly buying Miglia.
God knows my existing Scientific Atlanta cable box with DVR is a piece of crap with a horrible interface that could be improved upon. That and it puts out more heat than a toaster oven.
This guy has some good points. I know its not zealotus enough of me to doubt Apple, but honestly I think AppleTV is going to be a bomb too. My reason for thinking this? Its one of the first Apple products in years that I don’t want. As an owner of 5 Macs and 3 iPods, this is not a good thing.
I agree. I love my MacBook Pro, Airport Extreme, Airport Express and other things, but the iTV is a shoddy project with a limited feature set. In fact, one can argue that the Comcast On Demand pay-per-episode (sometimes free) model + DVR in their Motorola box is more robust. For music, I already have an Airport express.
So why I ask would I need an iTV?
Reminds me of the doom and gloom predictions for the original iPOD Mini.
We all know how right those idiots were about that Apple product.
Personally, I think the only thing standing in the way of the AppleTV being a huge hit, is the lack of a RENTAL OPTION for iTUNES movies.
If Apple came up with a Netflix style rental plan concept for people to be able to download movies for a monthly fee but not be forced to purchase them, then I think this thing will be huge.
Until that happens, I do somewhat agree with the pundits, that this device will have more limited success. I have no interest in switching from Netflix to this kind of product as long as I would have to purchase everything I wanted to watch.
Just way too expensive and limited.
Add to my wishlist the rental option that :rolleys: suggested. Definitly would add to the value proposition.
I think Tv won’t be that big of a success. When the only media you can watch is the stuff in your iTunes library. The average already consumer already has sat/cable, tivo, dvd players. Why would they need the Tv unless their compulsively buying $10 and $15 movies and $2 tv shows on the iTunes store. And yes I know that you can play any movie on your computer not just what you get thru the iT store but do you think the average joe is willing to spend hours illegally converting his dvd colection to .mov files? The only way I could see a good reason for the Tv is if they allow you to rent movies for $3 and keep it for 5 days or something like what Netfilx is doing. People don’t watch the same movie over and over like they listen to music.
Dad, that tv thing is cool. Can we have one?
MDN- Put it on your “to watch” predictions on your iCal.
I think I’ll believe Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal before I’ll believe this guy. Walt says Apple TV is a great product and will only get better. Walt has been testing it for the last two weeks unlike this guy who hasn’t even looked at the product. This guy is running at the mouth on the internet with FUD! He has no clue what Apple TV does so how can he say anything about it.
I think AppleTV has potential. Here is what I think might harm it though:
1. Inability to be used with non-widescreen televisions. Let’s face it, the majority of Americans do NOT have the Widescreen TVs. This will severly limit the market (for now)
2. Inability to “rent” content on iTunes. I know that this may change, but most people will happily pay $3 to rent a movie, but $15 just to watch it once on the sofa? I mean it’s a great premise for the children’s films (i.e. Disney where they keep watching the movies over and over again), but most people are not going to watch Elizabethtown frequently enough to buy it to own. I know that this may very well change, but it needs to soon.
3. The quality of video. I will be the first to admit the current setting is FAR better than when iTunes first began selling video, but the quality needs to be raised even higher for the expensive Widescreen TVs to be able to make the content look good.
4. Some sort of “feeder” device to force itself into the market. I think that had apple included a DVD Recorder with it or something that people knew they wanted it might sell better. Then in time, people would start using the other part of the technology, and eventually stop using the DVD Recorder. For some individuals who are not as tech-savvy having some sort of device that they know they will use reduces the “gamble” of buying this product.
Now these are all problems I have with the timing for right now. I think that in 10 years Problem #4 will not be an issue at all, after all by then Video Streaming into the living room will be what all Americans will be doing.
Problems with one-three can also easily go away as people no longer have analog sets, Film Studios loosen up and embrace this new technology (let’s face it, this is nothing new remember the VHS fumble.), and Apple will find ways to increase the quality.
My only fear is that this product could be hurt by these problems, not saying it won’t be a good product, just saying it’s still kind of in a test-release form with all these other issues.
MW: Apple needs to find a way to make sure AppleTV will land on it’s FEET.
uh duh:
AVI seems to be the de facto video standard because every TV show or movie on sites like Bit Torrent and every TV show or movie on Usenet Newsgroups happens to be in AVI format.
“4. Some sort of “feeder” device to force itself into the market. I think
that had apple included a DVD Recorder with it or something that people knew
they wanted it might sell better. Then in time, people would start using
the other part of the technology, and eventually stop using the DVD
Recorder. For some individuals who are not as tech-savvy having some sort
of device that they know they will use reduces the “gamble” of buying this
product.”
It is not logical to include inferior technology with superior as bait to buy the superior tech.
By your logic Apple should have included a Sony walkman CD player with the 1st iPod.
LL&P
The only thing in my opinion, that will restrict mass sales of Apple TV units in the UK and Europe is the fact that we dont have a itunes movie store yet.
As soon as Apple makes that happen in Europe the Apple TV boxes will fly off the shelves and they will sell bucket loads.
I expected most of the responses on this board to be negative to this article. So I decided to try to take an objective view. And I recognize that accuracy is often not the goal. Controversy sells and having a stong opinion sells more than having a fair and balanced opinion.
But then I read the article and I just have to say that this guying is just begging to be slapped. I mean he’s just making things up.
1. Limited Uses: Here he is making the traditional argument that the Apple TV does not have a laundry list of features. Can’t accept TV channels, no DVR, no DVD playback. I think he’s “not getting it” but I’ll accept that he’s staing the argument for the status quo.
But then he goes on to support his argument by stating that Apple has not been successful in sell $1.99 TV episodes. Say what? Have they not sold millions of those episodes? You can’t support an argument just by saying reality doesn’t exist. Perhaps someone here can support of dispute that argument by providing accurate numbers on TV show sales.
2. Set-Top Fatigue: Now he’s just making things up. He argues that Americans don’t want anymore boxes on their TVs. This may or may not be true. But he just pulls that out of the air without any supporting evidence. He’s not stating this new “set-top fatigue” syndrome as his opinion. He’s pretending that it’s holly writ. How about one shred of evidence to back that up.
3. Compatibility & Confusion: “The devices concept is too confusing for most Americans”. Well, every review so far has talked about how easy Apple TV is to install and use. Perhaps the author of this article is projecting his own shortcomings on all Americans.
4. Inconvenient: You have to download your ontent to your computer before you can send it to your TV. I think he has something here and I suspect that Apple will try to fix this in future iterations.
I don’t mind him having a different opinion than mine. And I understand that he’s taking a strong stand because that is what sells. And ultimately, he may be right. But this is just trolling. I gain nothing from listenting to an opinion that’s unsported by facts or logic.
Does anyone know if Swann ever commented on the rousing success or dismal failure of Media Center PCs? What is his track racord on that?
@Anthony
Excellent post.
In regard to point number 2, I too fervently hope that Apple switchs to renting video content. But Apple does things the Apple way so far they been just a tad better at reading the market than I have.
LOL, if selling 3 million units at $300 each is a failure, I’d love to have a $900 million business failure. Bring it on!
Even if he’s right, 3 million units compares VERY favorably to sales of other products. Heck, Apple only sold 1.6 million Macs last year, of every type. Apple would be selling Apple TVs at the same rate or better as the best-selling game consoles. Three million in sales would be a perfect start on which to base a Version 2 product that is even more compelling.
He’s pessimistic, and still he paints a rosy picture!
This guy (Phil Swann) has always been a dick… he writes like he’s got something stuck up his ass.
Pay no attention to him.
To me the Apple TV product goes hand in hand with the MacMini.
With those two put together as a setup then you have your DVR with OSX on the Mini, plus anyone of the plethora of add on devices to increase the capacity of the Mini so as your collection gets bigger you just add extra storage.
As for the above article, its just another FUD as per usual.
Not every Swann is a psychic. LOL Being that the AppleTV is really a specialized OSX-based computer, extensibility is “in the cards” so it’s all a matter of how Apple wants to enhance the functionality of the device.
I’m sure, like the iPod, Apple has plenty of enhancements up it’s sleeve to release over time. I’m on a wait and see basis right now, happily content having my PMG5 connected to my tv using salling clicker as a remote.
MDN Magic word: Ingo
Dear MDN,
Why do you glorify the idiotic ramblings of these morons by re-printing the garbage they are writing? Don’t you realize that any mention of their articles gives them legitimacy in the eyes of many readers? What they really deserve is to be utterly ignored.
All you have to do is take a DVD and rip with Handbrake and impot (drag and drop) into the movies folder in iTunes and your ready for prime time on Apple TV. So either take your DVD collection or Video_TS folders and import them into iTunes. No DVD’s to handle and scratch. Just point your Apple remote and selct your program.
I believe that most people will be happy with that option. Better options will obviously become avilable in the future and the product and application evolves. Plus consider the third party goodies that will become available just as the iPod. the possibilites are endless. And, stop with all of it can’t do this or that yet, most of us average TV Movie viewers just want easy access to our movies withour all of damage issues and skips that come with the physical DVD.
It’s simplicity – it’s Apple. Apple TV bitch
Isn´t watching TV dead???
In our house we have gone from TV viewing basically all day long by someone in the house (pre-internet) to TV viewing maybe an hour or two per day. Everyone is involved with their internet-connected computers or TV-connected game console.
If we want to watch a movie we go to the theater. If it wasn´t worth going to the theater to watch it on the big screen, it is worth watching it on the TV….or so my teenagers tell me.
If Swann, who is as much an ass in email as he is in his blog, thinks 3 million units is a failure, then what does he think about the Zune’s 29,000 estimated sales?
Why doesn´t Apple just make a combo computer & large screen TV?
Download from the internet right to the “All new” AppleTV. Forget all this 2nd computer, AppleTV wireless transmitter, etc, etc, etc.