TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb

Apple Store“Apple has finally begun shipping pre-orders of its Apple TV wireless set-top, according to news reports. The device can stream media stored on your PC to your TV including music, pictures and 720p High-Definition video,” Phillip Swann writes for TV Predictions. “The company has set the price at $299, but I’m here to tell you that it will ultimately have trouble giving them away.”

Swann writes, “Yes, Apple TV will bomb — and here’s why:”

1. Limited Uses
2. Set-Top Fatigue
3. Compatibility & Confusion
4. Inconvenient

Swann writes, “So, although the tech-intelligentsia will slobber over Apple TV and call it the Second Coming, Apple TV will fail to reach beyond the cultish Mac audience, probably topping off at about three million homes.”

Full article, Think Before You Click™, here.
Good news for Apple! This is the strongest indication yet that Apple TV will be a raging hit as Swann has proven to be uniformly wrong when it comes to understanding Apple products and predicting their success.

Read Swann’s previous idiotic predictions:
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005

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66 Comments

  1. I’m not convinced that the Apple TV will be a rousing success right away, but I highly doubt that they’ll bomb though either. They’ll certainly be more successful in the market place than those lousy Media Center PCs have been. Those have truly bombed…

  2. What he fails to realize is that Apple knows how many videos it is selling online, especially to the same account.

    Apparantly Apple can see exactly how much market potential there is.

    The iTV doesn’t necessary have to be as successful as the iPod, just look at the POS called the iPod Boombox.

    Apple sold enough of those in order for it to be profitable and that’s all that counts.

    Some products Apple makes is not designed to rule the roost in it’s market, but to serve the advancement of Apple in the living room.

  3. this “swanni” guy is clearly an ass

    he is just trolling for hits on his website so he can continue to milk web ads

    has he tested the product ?

    why release this “opinion” now ?….because he wants to piggyback off of Mossberg’s real story and be picked up in the mainstream press as the opposing viewpoint

    low life web scum

  4. > what happened to accountability and performance-based employment?

    Because in his line of business controversy is performance. He’s there to drive hits to the web site, so outrageous statements or positions, often with no regard for the real world, are the order of the day.

  5. I don’t think it’ll be a big success, either. As statistics have shown, iPods are filled with MP3s people have ripped or pilfered. Only a small percentage of songs on iPods are AACs from iTunes. So, in similar fashion, Apple needs to support the de facto video standard codec to have AppleTV be similarly successful. I know it’s not the best quality video, but AVIs are the de facto standard right now. I would buy an Apple TV if it supported AVI as there are European TV shows I like to download and watch on my Mac (that aren’t even available on iTunes), but won’t be able to stream them to my TV with Apple TV.

  6. “wall street guy” is spot on

    why release this “story” now ?

    why not wait 3 days and give a real informed opinion after actually using the product ?

    and the biggest question, who the hell is stupid enough to subscribe to this guy’s service ?

    DO NOT CLICK THE LINK TO HIS WEBSITE !!!!

  7. First, he wants hits to his article. Second, I said this would happen– huge build up, then the tear down. It started a bit early, though considering it’s hasn’t even begun to arrive in peoples’ homes yet.

    Time will tell.

  8. 1. Limited Uses
    DVD players don’t deliver TV broadcasts, TV tunes don’t play dvd’s. As long as the content itself is compelling enough it makes no difference how many different things it does.
    2. Set-Top Fatigue
    So people have stopped buying new devices? Hasn’t stopped the wii doing well. As long as the content it delivers is compelling then people have shown they will buy something new.
    3. Compatibility & Confusion
    The Apple TV does not emulate a windows media center, that’s the whole point. If people can use iTunes (which they can and do) then they can use this.
    4. Inconvenient
    In order to watch a dvd you have to buy or rent it – what’s the point?

    As long as the content is compelling enough to outweigh any perceivable disadvantages of a product then it will succeed. Apple TV may fail, but not for these reasons, or at least the explanation of them given in this article.

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