TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb

Apple Store“Apple has finally begun shipping pre-orders of its Apple TV wireless set-top, according to news reports. The device can stream media stored on your PC to your TV including music, pictures and 720p High-Definition video,” Phillip Swann writes for TV Predictions. “The company has set the price at $299, but I’m here to tell you that it will ultimately have trouble giving them away.”

Swann writes, “Yes, Apple TV will bomb — and here’s why:”

1. Limited Uses
2. Set-Top Fatigue
3. Compatibility & Confusion
4. Inconvenient

Swann writes, “So, although the tech-intelligentsia will slobber over Apple TV and call it the Second Coming, Apple TV will fail to reach beyond the cultish Mac audience, probably topping off at about three million homes.”

Full article, Think Before You Click™, here.
Good news for Apple! This is the strongest indication yet that Apple TV will be a raging hit as Swann has proven to be uniformly wrong when it comes to understanding Apple products and predicting their success.

Read Swann’s previous idiotic predictions:
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005

Related articles:
Mossberg hands-on with Apple TV: ‘beautiful design, easy-to-use, classic Apple: simple and elegant’ – March 21, 2007
Apple TV projected to surpass TiVo, Netflix – March 20, 2007
Former Microsoft ‘Enthusiast Evangelist’ Gartenberg looks at impact of Apple TV – March 20, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 20, 2007
Apple shares rise on positive Apple TV analyst comments – March 19, 2007
Analysts: Apple to ride Apple TV + iTunes ‘Trojan horse’ into living room – March 19, 2007
Will Apple TV be even bigger than iPhone? – March 19, 2007
Apple adds 720p Apple TV high-definition export mode to QuickTime – March 19, 2007
Apple planning to buy Miglia to add DVR capabilities to iTunes and Apple TV? – March 17, 2007
Miglia debuts TVMAX+ Mac PVR, TV tuner, content provider for iPod, iPhone or Apple TV – March 16, 2007
Piper Jaffray expects 2 million Apple TV units to be sold in 2007 – March 16, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 15, 2007
Solution providers expect Apple TV to be hot seller – March 15, 2007
Apple TV could help kill traditional TV ads – March 14, 2007
Apple TV manufacturing ramp up to begin as early as today – March 12, 2007
Why Apple TV is more important than iPhone – March 12, 2007
Apple TV concept may eventually catch on with consumers – March 12, 2007
Apple CFO talks Apple TV, iPhone, Leopard and retail (link to full transcript) – March 07, 2007
PC Magazine: Why Apple TV matters – February 23, 2007
Bear Stearns: Apple TV and iPhone have changed the Apple story for the better – February 21, 2007
Deutsche Bank: Apple TV could take 30% of set-top box market within a few years – February 21, 2007
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Former GM of Microsoft’s Xbox Live Arcade: Apple TV to become video game console – February 08, 2007
ZDNet’s Graham: Apple TV hits a number of sweet spots, poised to make a big impact – January 25, 2007
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RUMOR: Apple TV sales blowing away Apple’s internal expectations – January 25, 2007
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Report: first batch of 100,000 Apple TVs to ship this month – January 11, 2007
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Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
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RUMOR: Apple may enter video game market – December 05, 2006
Could Apple become king of game consoles? – September 26, 2006


  1. I’m not convinced that the Apple TV will be a rousing success right away, but I highly doubt that they’ll bomb though either. They’ll certainly be more successful in the market place than those lousy Media Center PCs have been. Those have truly bombed…

  2. What he fails to realize is that Apple knows how many videos it is selling online, especially to the same account.

    Apparantly Apple can see exactly how much market potential there is.

    The iTV doesn’t necessary have to be as successful as the iPod, just look at the POS called the iPod Boombox.

    Apple sold enough of those in order for it to be profitable and that’s all that counts.

    Some products Apple makes is not designed to rule the roost in it’s market, but to serve the advancement of Apple in the living room.

  3. this “swanni” guy is clearly an ass

    he is just trolling for hits on his website so he can continue to milk web ads

    has he tested the product ?

    why release this “opinion” now ?….because he wants to piggyback off of Mossberg’s real story and be picked up in the mainstream press as the opposing viewpoint

    low life web scum

  4. > what happened to accountability and performance-based employment?

    Because in his line of business controversy is performance. He’s there to drive hits to the web site, so outrageous statements or positions, often with no regard for the real world, are the order of the day.

  5. I don’t think it’ll be a big success, either. As statistics have shown, iPods are filled with MP3s people have ripped or pilfered. Only a small percentage of songs on iPods are AACs from iTunes. So, in similar fashion, Apple needs to support the de facto video standard codec to have AppleTV be similarly successful. I know it’s not the best quality video, but AVIs are the de facto standard right now. I would buy an Apple TV if it supported AVI as there are European TV shows I like to download and watch on my Mac (that aren’t even available on iTunes), but won’t be able to stream them to my TV with Apple TV.

  6. “wall street guy” is spot on

    why release this “story” now ?

    why not wait 3 days and give a real informed opinion after actually using the product ?

    and the biggest question, who the hell is stupid enough to subscribe to this guy’s service ?


  7. First, he wants hits to his article. Second, I said this would happen– huge build up, then the tear down. It started a bit early, though considering it’s hasn’t even begun to arrive in peoples’ homes yet.

    Time will tell.

  8. 1. Limited Uses
    DVD players don’t deliver TV broadcasts, TV tunes don’t play dvd’s. As long as the content itself is compelling enough it makes no difference how many different things it does.
    2. Set-Top Fatigue
    So people have stopped buying new devices? Hasn’t stopped the wii doing well. As long as the content it delivers is compelling then people have shown they will buy something new.
    3. Compatibility & Confusion
    The Apple TV does not emulate a windows media center, that’s the whole point. If people can use iTunes (which they can and do) then they can use this.
    4. Inconvenient
    In order to watch a dvd you have to buy or rent it – what’s the point?

    As long as the content is compelling enough to outweigh any perceivable disadvantages of a product then it will succeed. Apple TV may fail, but not for these reasons, or at least the explanation of them given in this article.

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