“Apple has finally announced its long-rumored iPhone. True to the Apple ‘i’ tradition, the iPhone is filled with features and touts an innovative interface more akin to a kiosk or video game than a telephone… Can it succeed? Frankly, and contrary to the reactions of Apple fans and the stock market, I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think this device will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed,” Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates, writes for Computerworld.
Gold writes, “Why am I not impressed? First, making an entertainment device is much different from making a phone. Over the years, plenty of phones offering lots of nice ‘toys’ for users have disappointed. Ultimately, they were not very good phones. And the bottom line is that you have to build a good phone first, and then add features on top of that.”
Gold writes, “Another difference between phones and entertainment devices is that phones must be much more rugged and less prone to breakage while being subjected to all kinds of abuse. Can the iPhone take such abuse without a high failure rate?”
Gold writes, “The price is steep. Yes, I understand that the astronomical list prices of $500 and $600 are simply initial inflations meant for the early adopters willing to pay almost anything (and to limit volumes while Apple ramps up to catch up to demand). But even if the prices were cut in half, that is hefty for a phone device these days, even one with loads of features.”
Gold writes, “Who is the target for this device? At $300 to $400 (assuming the price falls rapidly), an iPhone clearly is not a casual buy. In the past, most high-end phones have been sold to business users willing to pay for a fancy phone with the capabilities they wanted. But these users almost universally demand connectivity to corporate systems, especially through push e-mail and Outlook integration. How well the iPhone does at integrating to these systems remains to be tested. And although I would bet the iPhone will integrate and sync well with the Mac, very few businesses run on Macs.”
Gold writes, “The device runs the Mac OS. This is a major constraint, since few third-party application vendors (e.g., Good Technologies for a push e-mail client) run on the Mac… Apple will likely have a tough time convincing application vendors to build specialized clients for the iPhone until the volumes are there, and the volumes could be limited by the lack of third-party applications – a Catch 22.”
Gold writes, “So, will the iPhone succeed? At some level, yes, given the cachet that the Apple brand carries and the company’s base of loyal fans. But Apple has a lot of questions to answer… My advice: Unless you are a die-hard Apple fan, wait a few months to see how this all shakes out, especially if you want to employ the device as an adjunct to your business. Find out how good a phone it really is and how well it connects to the world you live and work in before spending the high price for what could ultimately become an orphaned, stand-alone music player.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “King Mel” for the heads up.]
Has Mr. Gold even watched Steve Jobs’ keynote and seen the iPhone demonstrated? Ultimately, Mr. Gold’s advice to “wait a few months to see how this all shakes out” coupled with his threat that Apple’s iPhone “could ultimately become an orphaned, stand-alone music player” just doesn’t smack of FUD, it is the very definition of FUD.
Related article:
The massive FUD campaign against Apple’s iPhone ramps up – January 10, 2007
Obviously hasn’t watched the keynote.
I actually agree. There remains a lot of questions to be answered. I think developers are going to be hoping that this is a new platform for them to release their products for. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to be leaning this way to keep that closed system environment for the highest level of consistency. Connecting with Exchange networks is crutial while outlook isn’t whatsoever if they are looking to make this a practical “smartphone” or at least corporate tool.
Battery life I think will be an issue as well. I’m buying an iPhone, but I’ll be waiting for a 2nd or even 3rd generation before I commit to it’s gloss and impressive features.
This bozo hasn’t bought a blackberry. Cost me $450 bucks with no service agreement.
Remember all the “MORONS” who were parading around, predicting doom and gloom for Apple after the iPOD Mini was announced?
“It is priced way too high, no one would ever buy one of those, blah blah blah…”
The iPHONE nay sayers will be eating just as much crow as the moronic iPOD Mini nay sayers did.
No matter how cool a product is, there will always be that handful of envious losers who have to try and piss in everyone elses corn flakes.
Uh, I think everyone will follow his advice and wait at least a few months to buy, considering they won’t start selling until June.
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I’m definitely going to wait a few months. Until June.
He’s shortsighted that’s all, and he’s not alone of course.
Just look what morons predicted iPod was set to fail..and you get the picture.
The proof is in the buying. Count me in x5.
And just imagine when we can ditch landlines and use VOIP and WiFi for 80% of all it’s activity!
“Gold writes, “The device runs the Mac OS. This is a major constraint,…”
Jaysus,,,how many freakin e-mail apps do you want on a phone,? How many browsers, calculators? What a major league, uninformed FUD spewing, dork.
Oh yes, please give me Versamail and the Palm internet browser. What? There are not a zillion apps some of which are a better email or browser client?
I suspect he uses a Fisher-Price phone (with BIG numbers on it)
Sigh….beam me up Scotty….NOW!
‘founder and principle analyst’ – reminds me of Enderle
Oh, and by the way, I paid $500 for my Palm Treo 700p about 6 months ago with a 6 month contract. I hate it. It picks up so much background noise that the people I’m talking to can’t hear me. I find the internet portion of it to be completely unuseable. I intend to drive over it on my way home from picking up my iPhone. I’m canceling my contract early and paying the damn fee.
I see opinions such as these as bellwethers of fantastic success. You may recall, the iPod mini was way too expensive and didn’t offer enough features when it was first released, and look what happened to it. I believe the same sorts of things were said about the original iPod, too.
Re: Apple has finally announced its long-rumored iPhone. True to the Apple ‘i’ tradition, the iPhone is filled with features and touts an innovative interface more akin to a kiosk or video game than a telephone…
Didn’t Stevie say the “Killer App” (god I hate that term), is MAKING PHONE CALLS!
I agree with this guy to some extent…The software is closed – so you have to wait for Apple to release a “widget” that might come in handy. Secondly, Apple tends to wildly exaggerate battery life, so if they say 5 hours – I take it with a grain of salt and wonder – what if it is something miserable, like 2? Thirdly, how can it be an ipod replacement with only 8 Gigs of memory? If I were going to spring 600 bucks on a “convergence” device, I would want something that would actually replace my ipod – all 23 gigs of my music. I mean, it is widescreen with brilliant video – but only 8 Gigs? Perhaps as a nano replacement it works… Lastly, if I so much as glance at my ipod screen, it scratches – hopefully it is more smudge-scratch proof than it seems…
MDN, pursuant to SteveJacks caution for FUD articles, I think you guys should number these iPhone FUD Alerts… This being #1 just to see how many we accumulate, heck we can even put them on a graph and watch the accelaration curve as we approach the June launch.
What do you guys think?
MW: Keep – keep’em coming!
Oh – let me re-emphasize BATTERY life. Without a user-replaceable battery, it has to have some good battery life unless you want to be saddled with a charger at home, work, car, etc… It seems a little contrary to the Apple “Think Different” mantra to be locking people into service with Cingular as well with a 2 year contract…
I don’t know; the author seems right to say it’s a little on the expensive side (especialy if you already own an iPod or you’re tethered to another provider) and that it isn’t guaranteed to be interoperable with pre-existing business networks. That could severely hurt it’s base. Yes, MDN, there can be FAULTS in an Apple product. It’s ok, it’s not the end of Apple.
Gold is right, the iPhone won’t succeed if all a consumer wants is a cell phone. However, the market is upscale and it is a business market, not just the high end consumer market. It’s a pocket computer that might enable travel without the need to take a laptop, and, given the theft of computers from airplane holds, it is going to become an indispensable tool for travelling.
Its functions tie into business applications, including the photo capacity. For example, a sales person wouldn’t need to carry binders around with a bunch of product photos. Marketing types could have presentations canned as movies or photos, e.g. of new packaging, prototypes, etc. and the capacity to have one’s contacts and calendars available, all synched to the Mac back home will make it an indispensable business tool. So to gain just 1% of the market, Apple won’t even need to sell it to consumers per se: businesses will find the $499 or $599 (the 8 gig will outsell the 4 right from the start) inexpensive as a productivity and communications tool.
In Canada, Rogers will probaby be the service provider whenever Apple can get around to the Canadian market. It might not be able to satisfy the U.S. demand for a while, so we are hoping to see them in 2008. Whoops, as I write this, AAPL is down 53 cents to 96.50. A year from now, that will be seen as really cheap. Buy AAPL now and take the profits to buy your iFONE? from the proceeds. Gold is going to get one: you watch.
Some of Gold’s points are quite valid. Corporate interoperability is a very good question, one that will take a while to be adequately answered and which cannot be seen from only a Keynote presentation.
MDN, this is not FUD. Your failure to recognize that reduces your credibility and reveals your ignorance, bias, and misplaced zealotry. Most of the comments reveal the same level of intelligence.
aCe Quote: I actually agree. There remains a lot of questions to be answered. I think developers are going to be hoping that this is a new platform for them to release their products for. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to be leaning this way to keep that closed system environment for the highest level of consistency. Connecting with Exchange networks is crutial while outlook isn’t whatsoever if they are looking to make this a practical “smartphone” or at least corporate tool.
They are amazing, and I would love to have one, but I doubt this will catch on like predicted.
Sony established the market for portable music players. Over 30 years ago. As for MP3 players, the market existed, but the products weren’t right and were too expansive, so old tech prevailed until Apple turned up. Apple waited until the technology allowed it to make a killer product. It seems the same to me now. Until the technology was developed to allow the right product at a reasonable price, they just kept out of the market.
Also, I don’t really think there’s a great deal of loyalty in phone brands. I’ve had a Sony, a Nokia, a Siemens, a Sony-Ericsson and a Motorola. Never the same brand twice. Apple’s brand is established in the minds of a lot of people in te right sort of tech area already, so I don’t think people will be any more afraid of trying Apple’s phone than of trying, say, a new phone from NEC.
Ultimately, they were not very good phones. And the bottom line is that you have to build a good phone first, and then add features on top of that
Wow! He gets it ! He just doesn’t get that Apple gets it too.
You can’t tell what the real price is because details of the contracts aren’t available. It’s likely that there will be contracts where the phone is ‘free’, but the line rental will be astronomical, just with all the current expensive ‘free’ phones.
Wait a few months. Well, that’s not so hard, seeing as how it’s not available for a few months, even in the US.
His advice at the end is the kind of FUD that MDN / SteveJack talked about earlier today. It’s not what he says, it’s the way that he says it. It’s actually good advice to take to consider your requirements for ANY device that might otherwise be a useless. The inference here is that it is likely that the iPhone will be useless and is best avoided rather than the inference being think about the things you buy and whether they’re the right choice.
No, this is not FUD. It is a blind cry in the dark.
This phone will sell heaps even as presented, but it will morph, spawn variants and eventually be supported by many carriers.
If anyone is downplaying the potential of this gadget, Apple is – because they know the take up of this product will test their manufacturers’ ability to ramp up production, and because they know it has the potential to speed up the demise of obsolete technology. Data costs too high? Cut your landline.
Geeze, my preteens are clamoring for one! Not to mention a new nano or video iPod or new Mac.
I live in Sacramento California. Cingular service here is just terrible. I don’t know about elsewhere in the USA. Perhaps the towers and technologies are better in other areas. Here in Sacto it is just dismal. I paid the cancellation fee to get away from AT&T/Cingular and went to Sprint where I have been very happy with the connectivity. However, I must say the Treo 650 just sucks. But it is the only thing that I can sync with my Mac via the Missing Sync in the smart phone realm.
I spoke with someone about the “edge” technology and I am told that it is slow. Perhaps by June the slow issue will be resolved…if even that is an issue.
I suppose the bottom line is that purchasing the iPhone will be a case by case…depending on your area and what you can afford.
I am disappointed that phone is closed and exclusive to a multi year deal with Cingular. I am sure Apple have significant reason why such a contract. As always, Apple thinks thing through and is not given to just reactive decision making.
Does anyone know how significant of a role the phone itself plays in the quality of reception?
“How well the iPhone does at integrating to these systems remains to be tested. And although I would bet the iPhone will integrate and sync well with the Mac, very few businesses run on Macs.”
WRONG-O! I guess he wasn’t paying attention during the keynote.
Last night at 2 am EST, Business 2.0 had posted 10 negative articles about Apple, most of them reposts of articles going back as far as November 24, 2006. The hedgies and MS are calling in all their markers. The FUD machine is in high gear.
“Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates”… every time I read about someone with this kind of title reminds me of Rob Enderle and his “group” which consists of his dog, his wife, his Windows PC, himself and Peris Hilton!!! LOL!!!!
Maybe I’m wrong but Apple hasn’t said the iPhone would be completely closed to third-party developers. It seems that Apple may be taking more of a game console approach to (1) ensure security, (2) conformity to Apple application design guidelines, and, most importantly, (3) setting up iTunes to be the central distribution point for applications.
In other words, HackAnApp Inc. can’t just throw up an app on their website for the iPhone which users can freely download. Given the potential sales volumes for the iPhone, a buggy (yet popular) app might create a support nightmare for Apple. Instead, with the model mentioned above, Apple can do some degree of quality control upfront, and establish an easy, consistent process for distributing updates, patches, etc.
Effectively, by controlling access to third-party development, Apple can be selective about the types of apps and developers at early-adopters will experience. The better that initial experience, the less likely Apple is to face support and PR problems similar to what Microsoft faces with malware.
I think it’s a smart approach when establishing a new platform, and I’m sure we’ll see the platform become more open over time.
Hywel: “His advice at the end is the kind of FUD that MDN / SteveJack talked about earlier today…The inference here is that it is likely that the iPhone will be useless and is best avoided rather than the inference being think about the things you buy and whether they’re the right choice.”
The lack of reading comprehension skills of many of the posters here continues to amaze me. What you are inferring from his article is not the same as what he is implying. Try reading things as they are stated, not what you want them to say or think they are saying.
I see the iPhone app market going like the Widget market did. Lots of creative people coming up with handy and, sometimes just, novel applications and I see a VOIP client in the future. This is going to blow the doors off the cell phone paradigm. People, whether you’re willing to admit it or not, we have just witnessed the birth of a new sun.
I love how little half assed columnists seem to think they know what is best for a giant marketing empire. It can’t connect to exchange yet, so the Suits aren’t going to buy them. So, don’t you think Apple may be going after a different segment, or create a market in it’s own right. They target consumers after all, not businesses. I remember not to long ago (2.5 years) my high-end iPod PHOTO cost $599, and people bought them (not a lot but it also wasn’t nearly as totally kick ass).
If this is the best FUD that an “analyst” can come up with, the iPhone will be very successful. Half of the points are wrong and the other half is “lets wait and see.”
DR: It IS closed to developers.
See:
http://www.tuaw.com/2007/01/10/apple-vps-confirm-no-3rd-party-iphone-apps/
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/macworld2007/gizmodo-iphone-hands-on-part-deux-why-isnt-it-white-and-other-questions-227575.php
I actually think that waiting for a few months before buying it is probably a very smart move to see if it lives up to the hype. If it does, great! Some rollout bugs may be ironed out by then. But if it doesn’t, you are locked into a two year contract.
David –
I also live in the Sacramento Area (Carmichael). I have to agree – I had Cingular and the coverage sucked. The phone wouldn’t work in my house and it wouldn’t work at my work. In addition, they were real bastards when I wanted to cancel after my contract was up. They threatened to turn by bill over to a collection agency even though it was already paid in full.
Verizon has much better coverage in Sac (and in more rural areas, i.e. Placerville). I also canceled from Verizon with no hassle after the contract was up.
Unfortunately, the exclusive Cingular availabililty is a real downer for some of us.
I am hoping for a video iPod with all of the same features minus the phone and with more storage. But I’m satisfied with my other iPods for now.
sounds like this ANALyst based his article on reading another article from a journalist who didn’t watch the keynote.
hi, i don’t have the foggiest notion about what it really is or does, but i’m going to poo-poo it.
to be fair, i think some writers are going the opposite direction–writing about how great it is without having a clue what it really does.
<<The device runs the Mac OS.>>
Umm, no, the iPhone DOES NOT run the Mac OS. It runs OS X and Mac OS X and OS X ARE NOT the same thing. Hey moron, do some actual homework before you spew FUD next time.
Well, you can’t really discount everything the guys says just because it’s against Apple. Some I think he’s right about, some I don’t.
Honestly, sometimes reading all these comments people make on these sites it reminds me of Republicans – “We’re right and if you don’t agree you’re a terrorist and hate America and love Microsoft!”
We can’t always automatically blow someones opinion’s off. This guy seems to have looked at it kind of objectively. Other people we read – obviously they’re just haters or haven’t done the research to support their claims where they’d find they were actually wrong more than right. C’mon people, let’s be more level-headed and think about the big picture and where someone is coming from before we jump down their throats.
some good, some bad
bad:
– toys :
a. how are maps, e-mail, IM, and the visual voicemail toys? They all seem aimed at function to me.
b. How does the fact that other hardware manufacturers that may entertainment devices into phones specifically relate to Apple, a company that has a pretty decent track record for hardware? Conjecture.
– rugged/prone to breakage: no testing, not idea. Plus, I take my iPods everywhere. I suppose their usage is different, but my iPod takes plenty of abuse. Conjecture
– price: sure, it is priced as a PDA style phone, but it will probably be subsidized at some point. It is steep and the 1G will only be for early adopters, sure.
– overall point that success is measured against market share of iPod: huh. I could have sworn that Jobs pegged their success level at 1% of the market.
good:
– it is a decent point that the long term success of the top of device requires usefulness for business. I do not use a PDA nor am I familiar with the software that large companies use for e-mail services used on PDAs. Fortunately, I work at a small company that does not force us to use Outlook or MS, so I can definitely justify this for work. But I do agree that it this sector is critical for getting over the 1% goal.
Sounds like good advice to me….
If the iPhone were any cheaper they would have to start up an entire military-indistrial complex of an economy just to make them fast enough.
It’s going to be tough to keep ahead of demand as it is.
The problem with analysts is that they have no experience with customer reaction to a phone they ACTUALLY LIKE. They keep bitching about the fact that it’s locked to a service or it isn’t subsidized. LOOK – you HAVE to subsidize most phones because they are such steaming piles of dung, and people will only pay so much for dung (this is why Dells are so cheap).
But even if the iPhone DIDN’T MAKE CALLS… people would still buy truckloads of them. This is going to be about a lot more than a crappy, disposable phone you use for 2 years and throw out, this is a whole new way to look at the sector. The iPod made this happen for music players and it will do so again for phones. I’ll even take bets.
OH, and speaking of… I know Zune Tang/Don’t Pass is gone now (or maybe not gone *cough*mdn*cough*) but I’ve still got my hammer ready. I’ll be counting down the days until Zune is EOL’d. Maybe I can call you on my new phone when it happens. =)
-c
What’s the point?
Reading Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates is equivalent to following
him into the bathroom to watch him take a shit. What’s the point?
Anyone can create ‘fearful nothingness’ like this all day long. It’s what Enderle does. Junk!!
Junk!! Junk!! Junk!!
As stated above, this isn’t FUD. This is a reasonable analysis.
The iPhone will sync with iTunes, but Windows losers will be using different contacts/email programs. They won’t be using Apple’s Mail program.
That is a huge problem for mass adoption.
I, too, love some of Apple’s products. But that doesn’t blind me to Apple’s missteps and over-hype. “Home stereo reinvented,” fer chrissakes.
MDN’s “takes” have a Zune-like level of self-awareness.
MDN (and many of the objectivity-challenged posters on this site) are often biased to an laughably absurd extreme. Rather than FUD, its more like HIF: “hysterically-illogical-fanboy.”
If anything Apple and Steve jobs are saying LESS about the iPhone than what it’s actually capable of doing at this point.
If anyone remembers the hype surrounding the Newton when it was first launched, John Sculley and Apple were promising that the Newton would not just give us the moon, but Venus, Mars and the Kuiyper Belt!
When it turned out that the Newton’s v1.0 handwriting recognition was quite inaccurate, the press turned on it, mercilessly. It didn’t matter that the Newton itself was pretty mind-blowing and actually SET the standard for ALL later handheld devices. It didn’t matter that Apple fixed the Newton’s HR in later releases. Because Apple initially promised SO much, the fact that it fell a bit short of what it promised, and they weren’t able to DELIVER all their promises, Newton was doomed.
We see the same thing played out with the Zune. There were promising aspects, but the execution and Microsoft-centric, not CUSTOMER-centric features are killing it. Version 2.0 may be doomed before it’s released.
The point is, that Jobs and Apple LEARNED from the Newton debacle.
Make something as close to perfection as possible BEFORE you release it. Make sure EVERYTHING works.
Promise less, deliver MORE.
God damned chairs!
Gold writes (on his Acer Ferrari laptop running Fista)….
Hmmm…….
http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2007/01/11/iphone-and-lg-ke850-separated-at-birth/
Hmmm…….
http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2007/01/11/iphone-and-lg-ke850-separated-at-birth/
Hmmm…….
http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2007/01/11/iphone-and-lg-ke850-separated-at-birth/
Saying you have to wait until you see what third party developers’ apps will show up on the phone proves this guy has not even seen a Mac OS X screen let alone used a Mac or seen the iPhone demo.
Apple will wow everyone all over again with the included, iPhone, OS X software, just before the iPhone release.
@ informed
Doesn’t the iPod already sync with Windows contact and photo data? What makes you think the iPhone won’t sync with Windows?
C’mon, cut the guy some slack. If he doesn’t slam the iPhone, he has to give him laptop with Vista back…
I’m by no means a blind fanboy. I’m plenty critical of MDN when I disagree with them. I happen to think that they’ve got it right here. I’m critical of Apple when I think they’ve got it wrong. Personally I see no benefit in the AppleTV device. I can’t think of a single reason to get one. I hate that I can’t clean the ball in my mighty mouse – bad design.
I also happen to think that overall, apple have got it right with the iPhone. There are absolutely issues regarding underlying tech and questions to be answered. I think they’ll answer them in good time. Maybe not all of them, but most of them.
An example of FUD was on The Register. “The iPhone is a good-looking piece of kit: it does nothing my Nokia N93 can’t do already”. It’s possible to argue that this is true too. Easily. The Nokia has a better camera and takes video, so it does more. Fact. It’s also easy to argue that a windows machine can do the same things as a Mac. And cheaper too. And it’s true, but not the whole truth.. What this misses is HOW the iPhone does things. The things the iPhone can do are not revolutionary. Really it’s the WAY the iPhone does things that matters. The UI absolutely is revolutionary.
@ ‘ill’-informed
iTunes can sync with Outlook and My Photos on the Windows side, and Jobs already said that iPhone will sync through iTunes. What’s the beef? Check the specs.
Sync album art, photos, contacts, and calendars
Sync the album cover art to accompany your portable music library, or sync as many as 25,000 photos. In most cases, iPod will preserve your photo albums and the music from your slideshows. Always compatible with Mac OS X Address Book and iCal, iTunes also supports contacts syncing via Outlook Express or calendar and contacts syncing via Outlook for the PC.
All valid points. It IS expensive, and limited and looks fragile. But if it works well then it will sell… And, hey, if it works well there will be other models, some of which are bound to be less expensive… Perhaps even an iPhone shuffle that makes random calls from your contact list??
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Yes, the iPhone shuffle – great for those drunk nights out-on-the town.
Bottom Line…
FUD of the highest order!
These guys work really hard for their money – now if they only beleived this crap!
@ All the putzes who don’t know anything:
In a major corporation, contact lists for email do not reside on the individual PC. These propriatary email contacts are on a central server, behind a firewall. Its a little thing called “security.”
Thus they will not sync.
Understand yet?
@ informed
You say: The iPhone will sync with iTunes, but Windows losers will be using different contacts/email programs. They won’t be using Apple’s Mail program. That is a huge problem for mass adoption.
But iTunes syncs Windows contacts and photos to an iPod.
later: contact lists for email do not reside on the individual PC. These propriatary email contacts are on a central server, behind a firewall…Thus they will not sync.
O, now I get it – all windows users are “In a major corporation.” Is that right “informed?” You’re saying there are no Windows users who can sync contacts to the iPhone? There’s no WIndows users’ email account the iPhone can connect to?
WTF: Is “Jack Gold” a new alias for Rob Enderle?
It’s abour changing the world. The Apple iPhone may not succeed, or be the number one phone in the world. But it’s a good bet other phone companies will start ripping off the technology and implementing it into their phones, thus putting the technology in everyones hands regardless of what brand it is. That’s the point. It takes someone (Steve) with the balls to get up and show the world how to do something right. Look at the iPod. Every company wants to make their own iPod. The same will happen with the phone.
MDN, please learn what FUD is.
This is not FUD:
“My advice: Unless you are a die-hard Apple fan, wait a few months to see how this all shakes out, especially if you want to employ the device as an adjunct to your business. Find out how good a phone it really is and how well it connects to the world you live and work in before spending the high price for what could ultimately become an orphaned, stand-alone music player.””
That is common sense.
The FUD in the article is:
– “The device runs the Mac OS. This is a major constraint”
No. Apple are not allowing third party development, so his arguments are irrelevant and misleading. With a closed system, it is up to Apple to develop conduits to other email and address book clients, not 3rd parties. So although his issue is correct, he deliberatly uses the FUD compatibility and developer support cards because he knows they create more FUD.
– “Who is the target for this device? At $300 to $400 (assuming the price falls rapidly), an iPhone clearly is not a casual buy. In the past, most high-end phones have been sold to business users willing to pay for a fancy phone with the capabilities they wanted. But these users almost universally demand connectivity to corporate systems”
He’s trying to imply it will fail because Apple has missed the target audience. Now this is good FUD. He totally overlooks the fact this is a full function video iPod. That alone will sell it to many people outside the traditional smartphone market. How many of those cheaper smartphones have a built in 3.5inch video playback device?
what these pundits don’t get is that the iPhone would sell even if it did not make any phone call. I am pretty sure to see it in the streets in Europe in June already: people visiting the US will buy one the same just because and wait for a provider to show up in Q4.
Concerning audience, I already was told by friends (and Windows users in major corporates) that their smartphones (“my smartphone just looks so dumb suddenly”) just look so outdated and lame and that they’ll be ashamed to still sport one when the iPhone will be out. In terms of marketing it could be a flashy new trendy tool to show corporate videos and gigs to customers. Concerning integrating corporate network, jeeez, you truly believe that will really be a problem with no solutions?
10 millions unit by end of 2008? Make that 30 already.
Now I understand why Gold also upped his recommendation to ‘hold’ with a $60 target. The guy is on another planet and clearly out of touch.
ziggybop:
Can you read? Fifth paragraph:
“…But these users almost universally demand connectivity to corporate systems, especially through push e-mail and Outlook integration. How well the iPhone does at integrating to these systems remains to be tested…”
Could my comment be more clear?
Mail syncs just fine with an Exchange server (you simply add your e-mail as an Exchange account), which is what most corporations use to run Outlook. iPhone will sync just fine with corporate Exchange servers, just like Macs do now.
Is anyone really dumb enough to think that Apple would release the LONG-awaited iPhone in a form/function so it would not sync with a variety of PIMs and E-mail servers? Please. That’s why OS X is being used – the UNIX base can run whatever is necessary to access a wide variety of e-mail and PIM servers.
Just like an iPod syncs fine to Windows, iPhone will sync well. Remember, Apple is now a member of the Windows API association, so Apple has the expertise to build-in the necessary hooks to sync with Windows apps.
Finally, people keep looking at the price like it’s an iPod OR a phone. You have to look at iPhone as buying at least two devices, an iPod and a mobile phone (one that actually syncs to your computer instead of you having to enter all of your data). Now throw in the TRUE mobile internet, PIM functions, and widgets (which will undoubtedly expand to provide Palm-like functionality), and you’ve bought 3 devices for $500-$600. Plus, it’s going to be better built, will function better, and will last longer than most Treos, iPaqs, etc.
lbuschjr:
There is a difference between “works with” and “syncs.” Any mail client will send and receive email. That isn’t the issue.
This is about the Address Book. Corporate mail systems store individual email and group addresses on a server. That is why, even in Mac-based graphic departments within most companies, Apple’s supplied Mail program isn’t used. Apple Mail doesn’t utilize any stored addressing outside of the Apple Address Book (which resides on the individual Mac).
Sure, Mac users can manually type or recreate these contacts. But that is frowned upon by management. There are many headhunters and stockbrokers who will pay good money for a corporate email/phone list. Thus, these contacts are stored and administered centrally, and corporate mail users must login to access them.
Smartphones compatible with these enterprise systems are able to login and access these addresses. If the iPhone’s mail program is based on Apple’s current Mail program, it will not.
That is what the author is saying, and from what we currently know, he is correct.
Is this more clear?