By SteveJack
As I fully expected, the Apple iPhone hit pieces have begun. These articles will attempt to spread Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) for the next six months leading up to Apple’s first shipment of iPhones and well beyond that date.
If you thought that iPod and iTunes was subject to FUD, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet, my friends. You’ll have to look to the Mac to find a threat of such magnitude that inspired such a FUD campaign. The reason for such a campaign against iPhone? Money. Lots and lots of money and the fear of losing a good portion of it to Apple.
You can call me conspiratorial. You can call me a crackpot. Call me whatever you like, but I will be proven right soon enough.
You will see articles that go way beyond legitimate reviews that will attempt to call into question every aspect of Apple’s iPhone, attacking everything from battery life, the type of battery, fingerprints on the screen, its Mac OS X operating system, and the type of network technology the first iPhone will employ (quad-band GSM) while failing to mention that Jobs stated that Apple plans 3G iPhones in the future. These articles will harp on the prices Apple plans to charge for the iPhone. They’ll claim the soft keyboard is difficult to use. They’ll make up even more things and they’ll find quotes from people who are supposedly not impressed with the device. I guarantee it.
Apple’s target of selling 10 million iPhones, or 1% of the total market, in the first year is too low, far too conservative. Apple’s iPhone user interface (UI) is far too advanced and too well-protected by patents (granted and under review) to be ripped off successfully. It will change the mobile device market in radical ways. I am, if anything, understating the havoc iPhone will cause.
The other phone makers, the other mobile device makers, and the other makers of so-called “smartphone” software understand the massive threat Apple’s iPhone poses. They have no recourse but to start up the FUD campaign, desperately hoping to slow Apple’s assault on the market. There is so much money at stake that things will get very nasty, very quickly.
The chits will be called in and the articles will get written. It’s already started.
So, keep this in mind whenever you read about Apple’s iPhone and you see an article slanted against the iPhone: the real Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt is being felt by all of the companies that Apple just humiliated yesterday. They are very scared and rightfully so.
SteveJack is a long-time Macintosh user, web designer, multimedia producer and a regular contributor to the MacDailyNews Opinion section.
Related articles:
FUD Alert: Analyst – I am pretty skeptical Apple’s iPhone can succeed – January 11, 2007
eWeek: Apple iPhone fallout: ‘They must be crying in Nokia-ville and other telephony towns today’ – January 10, 2007
The only thing really wrong with Apple’s iPhone is its name – January 09, 2007
Is Apple building ‘The Device?’ [revisited] – January 09, 2007
Apple debuts iPhone: touchscreen mobile phone + widescreen iPod + Internet communicator – January 09, 2007
Most of this talk is conjecture and nothing else.
Apple have given us <u>some</u> info re their “iPhone” – a product that is not due to hit the market until June.
My thoughts, also based on knowing nowt regarding Apple and their partners intention, but what they pitched to us the other day ain’t necessarily what they have up their sleeves, now, for the launch date or by the end of the year and beyond.
I am a television lighting Director and more often or not when dealing with Producers, Directors, talent and clients, my maxim is to under promise and then over deliver.
We know some stuff about Leopard, but they are keeping the best part of it a secret not only to stymy the opposition but also to make a bigger splash when released.
MDN MW – “increase” as in up the ante on delivery.
You want FUD? Look at Scoble:
http://scobleizer.com/2007/01/10/the-iphone-reality-distortion-field/
or Thurrott. It’s really interesting how Microsoft people are reacting: snide, carping, damning with faint praise. I think a lot of it is a simply psychological reaction to something they’re in awe of, but can’t have. The orchestrated (paid-for) astroturfng won’t kick off for a while.
THis so true – the mobile phone market is dominated by Nokia, Motorola and Sony Ericsson.
These companies have had the market sown up for too long and are VERY SCARED.
Apple is the ONLY company that could have done this, and make a phone, OS and network solution that will literally revolutionise the phone industry.
All the other companies in the phone market havent got the expertise, ability or creativity and innovational culture to create anything like the Apple iPhone.
I couldnt ever imagine Nokia spending nearly 3 years inventing a touch display for a start!
Going back to the ipod, Microsoft had a $10 billion yearly budget for R+D – and even they coud’nt even create this. Apple on the other hand has a annual R+D budget of $500 million – and just look at what ground breaking devices they create!
Imagine what Apple could do with a $10 billion R+D budget!!!
My advice to Nokia, Motorola and all the other mobile makers is GET OUT OF THE MARKET.
Apple is here to stay – they have seen and listened to everyone using phones and have made a ground breaking and industry turning product because of it.
Like what SJ said in the Keynote – the ‘killer app’ was always there right under their noses and they never even saw it.
The killer app is ‘making phone calls’ its as simple as that.
Most of these comments on “keyboard” difficulties come from people who may have had a max of 5 minutes to try out a completely new interface (except maybe David Pogue). How many people do you think would say writing an sms on an unfamiliar smartphone interface was easy after 5 minutes playing with it?
Sorry, but FUD has started already. Quotes:
Apple’s reasons for entering the handset market are clear. It’s facing stiff competition to the iPod from other consumer goods manufacturers, punting “me-too” products at more favorable prices.
Apple’s much-anticipated foray into mobile telephony won’t change the market to the U.S. company’s advantage. Mobile telephony is a more complex and mature market than the one for portable music players dominated by Apple’s iPod.
Apple hit gold with the iPod partly because of its clever, no-nonsense design. Apple has sought to emulate that with the iPhone’s touch screen, a technology that has proven more clunky than keypads in the past.
However advanced the iPhone’s touchpad is, the technology may yet be undone by customers’ sticky fingers particularly when the iPhone is billed as an all-round telephony, E-mail, internet and video device.
The iPhone may well shake up the status-quo in the mobile phone market, but it’s main achievement might be to force market leaders Nokia and Motorola, already under pressure from nearest rivals Samsung and Sony Ericsson, to overhaul their handset designs. We will see Apple’s rivals come back bigger and better.
Apple also faces tough decisions when it comes to partnering with mobile operators. In the U.S., it plans to sell iPhones through operator Cingular and its own Apple stores. But even taking into consideration Apple’s loyal fans and brand name, generating big sales of a single device backed by only one operator may be overambitious.
I do not know what you call these statements if not FUD.
They try to instill Fear that things will not work, uncertainty that however nice the technology is it won’t work, and doubts that the entire business model will work with mobile operators.
Seriously, is anyone truly believe that there will not be a smearing campaign soon about the iPhone, trashing it for missing features, describing technology shortcomings when no one had even tried one iPhone yet, or claiming that the interface lacks this and that when all they could refer to is what is shown in the demo?
What amuses me the most is the fact that whenever Apple innovate in any direction the FUD artists come out of the woodwork.
OK. I must admit I don’t spend hours every day looking for FUD articles about the products newly launched by other companies. For example Blackberry or Palm or a Windows Mobile device because I seriously doubt there are enough of them to make a dent but with Apple. It’s different.
It’s just my opinion but surely if someone keeps FUDding about Apple products and nobody else’s products then surely that person is in fear of something.
They either work for an Apple competitor and are in fear for their job security or they mistakenly invested in MSFT or DELL instead of AAPL and are skidding up their underpants.
It comes over as a kind of “your mum…” thing or a form of hi-tech penis envy
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Bill to Steve: “Yeah well yours may be bigger Steve but that doesn’t make it any better. Mine can pee a lot farther on a full bladder!!!”
Or maybe it’s the “cup half empty” people that do this.
Either way. Once the handsets are on the market and dudes are showing their mates how sexy it is it’s gonna kick ass.
The FUDmeisters will just look pretty silly in the end.
While I’m quite confident that there is plenty of demand for the iPhone, certainly enough for it to take 10% or more of the market in its first year of availability, I think that SJ may have used the 1% figure to temper expectations.
Why would he do so? Because there are likely to be some major supply issues for the flash RAM this phone uses. It was hard to get enough just for the shuffles and the nanos. Now, add another major product that needs 4 or 8 GB of flash per unit, and you’re looking at suppliers having to do a massive ramp-up.
-jcr
LukeinOz, you get it.
Let the absurd FUD roll. Just keep debunking that FUD as it pours off the lips and word processors of fools. All of this pro and con publicity will help Apple. Game over, man!
Normal Tire Kicking.
I see all this negative press as normal. Every writer is trying to find new angles and trying to make themselves look wise and tech savvy.
Dissing this product at this point does not condemn it.
All new products have to under go this media trial by fire. Look at the shit storm we all rained on Zune! However, obviously, there is already magnitudes more positive acceptance for iPhone. It’s already a clear hit with consumers and it isn’t even on store shelves yet. It will be a phenomenal success.
Far from pulling this piece, I give MDN my vote for saying it so clearly. There are already a good few cases. Just look at the BBC…it’s coverage of anything Apple is always couched in terms of jest and cynicism, always offering comments on why it might not be as good as you think.
They fall into the trap of always going for NEUTRALITY, feeling the need to seek out both sides even when it is 99 to 1. That’s the trouble with artificial, socially engineered political correctness.
Instead they should try just going for OBJECTIVITY and tell it as it is.
Yes, SteveJack is right about the FUD. Any article raising “concerns” about the iPhone is absolutely FUD.
It is funny to read some of the “legitimate opinions are not FUD!” replies here. Yes, they sure are- when NO ONE CAN HAVE REVIEWED THE THING YET!
And, true, proclaiming it as the greatest device ever created is premature also. But if the thing works, even 70% of it, like Apple says it does, the other smartphone makers are pretty much doomed.
After the keynote I said to a friend, “Wow, in a year phones with physical buttons are going to seem so goofy.”
His reply:
“They already do.”
> …then see if you can call SteveJack a conspiratorial crackpot – [Judge Bork].
I was invited: “You can call me conspiratorial. You can call me a crackpot,” he wrote, so I did. All in good fun, of course as evidenced by the qualifier in my next statement.
As for the CNet article, yeah, it sounds like they are trolling for ammunition for their fudpucking. But I sense the press – in the larger sense of the word – are showing increasing respect for Apple and disdain for Microsoft.
@Bert
“It’s really interesting how Microsoft people are reacting: snide, carping, damning with faint praise.”
What? What did some crackpot say about a conspiracy? You Mac morons should seek help. Seriously.
Since when are “Microsoft people” snide, carping, or damning with faint praise? I’ll tell you when: Never. Take a look in the mirror, Mac fanboys and girls. We might not support every little thing from Cupertino like you Apple lemmings but at least we’re honest. We Redmond supporters just tell it like it is. Simply read any comment on any blog or forum where awesome PC products are compared with crappy Apple products. What you’ll find from Microsoft supporters are typically pleasant, virtuous and respectful posts. You can count on it. If I could, I would have a different Windows supporter over for dinner each and every day. We just get it. It’s our kind, accommodating nature, I guess.
With that said, let me set the record straight: Apple copied the Zune to come up with their vaporware iPhone, and their Mac OS is derived from the best elements of Windows, only nowhere near as good. Truth hurts, but it’s truth. Zune beats iPhone, Windows beats Mac OS X. Again. Simple as that.
Your potential. Our passion.
Was it just me or was CNBC’s keynote day reporting trying too hard dredge up controversy? I recognize they’re a financial network, but every chance they had to mention the options backdating situation, they took it.
I’m not asking CNBC to gush over the iPhone. Just don’t try to reduce the day’s business events into a hockey fight for viewer interest. Ultimately it became transparent and comical.
The ApplePhone will stand on its own merits. It is so revolutionary it will shed FUD like water off a duck. That’s why they are soooo afraid. And we’re not talking Microshaft here, but companies that have some actual claim to innovation like Motorola, Nokia and Sony which are now seriously concerned about being left in the dust.
It sounds a little protectionist to me, but I have a feeling its not too far off the mark. Ultimately people, and by people I mean “opinion leaders”, self proclaimed and not, have this strange need to make sure that any real competition for MS is quelled before it can get a clean start. The iPod is a perfect demonstration of this reality, thankfully the iPod is also a demonstration that capitalism can win out over big business, corporate bossing tactics. I’m optomistic in the long run – In the short run, those of us who want to see a truly balanced market place better be prepared for a bit of storm between now and the release of the next OS – Its going to rain.
with Zune Tang leading the charge.
MW: “daily,” as in: “Zune Tang: your daily source for laughs”
I think this article appropriately reflects what ENGADGET has done in their podcast. I was really disappointed in the podcast.
They were contradicting themselves left and right. First saying it was a watershed moment, and then saying that there was no way that they would buy it because it wasn’t 3G. And then they went on to attack the interface and saying that the product was not anywhere near revolutionary because all of the technology existed before. Excuse me, but I think any product that will make the cell phone experience more enjoyable, usable, in a way never done before is quite revolutionary.
Lets face it. Yes, an iPod, Phone, and internet on cells has already existed, but how many people acutually use them. I would love to easily use these features on my phone, if I knew how. I read the books, and they do not help! I think from just seeing this on a keynote for a tiny bit of time that I could easily understand how to use it. I am Sorry Ryan and Kevin, but I don’t care if it takes a bit longer to load because it is not 3G. I like the idea that the actual REAL internet would be on my phone, an interesting new iPod interface, and having it sync to all of my contacts.
Seriously guys. I thought you would be excited about this. I may actually stop listening to your podcast because you are seriously starting to seem a bit arrogant, and like elitists. You are obviously not the majority, and for some reason not to fair and balanced, and the reason I am skeptical about treating blogs as respected members of the press, but rather you seem like the back alley way to find out new things. Not sure if you can trust the info because you might just be out to get a buck.
I would say you were really more leaniant on the zune in comparison. I thought some of the ideas of the zune were great, but apples new product is not just a replication of everything else that is out there.
The keynote even said they would be making 3G in the future. And you guys were acting like it was questionable that it might ever come out.
I am both a PC and a Mac user, and love serious tech that is obtainable by the masses. This product fits that mold. What good is technology if only a select few can use it. That is not the future, it is a camp for only the “super cool”. (more like superficial)
You have a staff of great writers, but I am seriously questioning the two at the top. I am curious what your connections are with big corporations, or if you have some sort fear that if everyone can use a technology then they won’t need you any more.
Love,
Me
so where are these supposed articles?
So pretty much what you are saying is that anyone who has any concerns about iPhone features is just spreading FUD. How dare anyone say anything negative about an Apple product right? Man I knew MacDailyNews was garbage but I was wondering how much further you guys were going to shove your heads up Apple’s ass.
I SHOULD NOT HAVE TO READ A BOOK.
I have never had to read an instruction book to make my computers work (okay, aside from PHP and UNIX manuals, lol) and I should not have to read one to make my phone work. If I have to read a book to work your phone, then your phone is a failure.
I can’t wait to post a video of my running over my Moto flip phone with my car… stay tuned!!!
-c
MW: ‘ones’ (got features, the other has uses)
Children, Children, Children!
I looked at the tech specs. I looked at the keynote. And, indeed, the phone runs OS X. It does not, however, run Mac OS X.
ChrissyOne, say it with me. Mmm-aaah-k Oh Ess Ten.
Go to Apple’s pages on Mac OS X. Look for it to be referred to as just “OS X.” It is never referred to that way. It’s referred to as Mac OS X.
By saying that it runs Mac OS X, you’re saying that any Mac OS X application should run on it. How’s the menu-bar gonna work?
So now we have the big question–what is NOT in OS X? For example, I saw no reference on his slides to Carbon. Forget the Photoshop port right there. How about ColorSync? How about OpenGL? Font management? Printing? Scripting?
LukeInOz: SLAMMED!
@ChrissyOne
I’m a little concerned with your obsession with destroying technology, recording it to video and sharing it for the world to see. What are you trying to say? Could it be the fact you are saddled with Apple’s frustrating near-mediocrity and it manifests itself in unhealthy behaviors? Are all of you Apple people like this?
Me? I’m a delighted Microsoft user. Everything just works. Imagine that, Apple lemmings. Redmond’s fluid, intuitive, well designed software lets me complete complex tasks without battling some hackneyed interface or OS insecurities or instabilities. It is as if no layer exists between me and the work I create. Pure productivity. I don’t have any problems, thanks to Microsoft. Maybe you should try it out. You’ll feel much better.
Your potential. Our passion.
Myth Three: The iPhone should be sold unlocked, not tied to Cingular service. “Shortly before the iPhone’s release, Dean Hall, a seven year software engineer for Motorola, explained in an email the limited usability of an unlocked phone: “When a phone is unlocked it loses its privileges on a provider’s data network. An unlocked phone can make GSM calls and send basic SMS. No MMS, no Internet, no iTS. Apple would either have to reverse engineer a method to gain access to the data network (unlikely as most data networks require SSL-level security to access) or it would have to offer something different.”
========
Well this is just moronic. I use nothing BUT unlocked phones and they surf the web along with all this other stuff just fine.