UBS channel checks “for Apple continue to be positive for portables, which could lend upside potential to our estimates for fiscal 1Q07 (ends December) and bodes well for continued share gains. We are surprised by our solid checks for iPods despite some market maturity and we continue to notice improvement in nano demand with the new color lineup, with initial sales of the recently released shuffle also being very solid. In addition, checks continue to be solid for Macs, as the company’s seemsto be benefiting from solid demand of its MacBooks and MacBook Pros which now feature Core 2 Duo processors,” says UBS, InvestorVillage reports.
USB says, “In line with our expectations, recent store visits and surveys continue to show solid demand for the new Apple MacBook, as well as the MacBook Pro, which we believe bodes well for continued momentum in fiscal 1Q07 (ends December). During our checks over the past few months, representatives at CompUSA, as well as at Apple stores, continue to see solid demand for the MacBooks, with checks this month again indicating that MacBook strength has continued beyond the peak back to school spending season, which ended in mid-September. We continue to believe solid demand for Macs will continue in FY07.”
“According to NPD, Apple’s retail Mac units grew 57% y/y in November (vs. the market of 32%) with notebooks up 107%, benefiting the new Core 2 Duo MacBooks and MacBook Pros. Our checks continue to be solid for Macs into the holidays, which could lend upside to our 44% unit growth estimate for 1Q07 as sales accelerate from here,” USB says.
“Reduced costs by PC OEMs and new market entrants such as Apple. The ultraportable PC market accounted for less than 8% of overall notebook shipments in 2005 (about 5 million units worldwide), and is expected to remain at about 8% of notebook shipments in 2006 (about 6.4 million units – 3% of total PCs) with strong 20%+ growth expected over the next few years, according to IDC,” UBS says.
UBS says, “We believe Apple could see much better growth and drive this category if it stripped down features, optimized the device for media playing and web surfing and used its engineering and scale to drive prices down toward the $500-$600 level. At this price, one million units could equate to over $500 million in revenue and over $0.05 in EPS. In terms of Macs, we are also excited about new features in Leopard that could include telephony, which could make Macs even an even more important tool in terms of communication… As we have stated in previous reports, we believe Apple may be working on some kind of ‘ultra-portable PC’ or some devices that can bridge the gap between media playing, basic wireless computing needs and even with some type of gaming and GPS capabilities. We would not be surprised to see new devices within the next year.”
UBS says, “Given indications of continued solid demand for Macs and the impact of new products, we believe our CPU estimates could still prove conservative. For 1Q07, we estimate y/y Mac unit growth of 44% (+12% q/q) to 1.8 million units (consensus calls for 1.74 million). Our estimates also call for Mac unit growth of 35% to 7.2 million units in FY07 and unit growth of 19% to 8.5 million units in FY08. Included in our estimates is our view that Mac sales will benefit near-term from the delay of Microsoft’s Vista and strong acceptance.”
“In FY07 and beyond we expect new software from Apple(Leopard) and Adobe (CS3) should further stimulate growth in Mac sales. We are also optimistic about additional increases in Mac distribution through Apple retail stores and expanded relationships with Best Buy (currently in 58 stores) and Circuit City (currently in 10 stores). We are noticing that Apple may be beginning to broaden its relationship with Best Buy as stores on our route have just begun to sell Macs. We will be keeping a close eye on additional locations that begin to sell Macs as we believe this initiative could become more of a national effort in the coming months,” UBS says.
More in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]
Related articles:
Apple could sell a staggering 9 million Macs in 2007 – December 15, 2006
CNBC: Apple to sell 17 million iPods in US alone in holiday quarter – December 13, 2006
Apple’s Mac market share surges, up 35-percent year-over-year as growth accelerates – November 01, 2006
Analyst: Apple has ‘real shot at dramatically expanding Macintosh market share’ – October 31, 2006
Analyst: Apple Mac gains market share, the reason why is significant – October 26, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 5.8% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 6.1% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Apple Q4 earnings results: $546M net profit on $4.84B revenue, sold 1.61M Macs, 8.729M iPods – October 18, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 4.6% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 4.8% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
Dude, you got a Dell? What are you, stupid? Only Apple Macs run both Mac OS X and Windows! – April 05, 2006
Why buy a Dell when Apple’s Intel-based computers will run both Mac OS X and Windows? – June 08, 2005
I hope they can keep up with demand. And I hope they’re producing a boat load of iPhones for it’s intro.
solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid solid
There, just thought there weren’t enough solids in the text.
That is a “SOLID” piece of writing. Good to hear (I think it will be a bit more), but I was so distracted with the over use of that word.
Salad, Man! Like, the state of the Macintosh is…salad! Waldorf salad! Slice up the Apples, mix in walnuts & celery & mayo. Good eatin’.
Speakin’ o’ vegetables… Where’s that Zune guy?
that part about stripping down portables and other computers to be optimized is a stinky suggestion, one that I think that they should feel embarrassed about. His Highness Steve knows exactly what he is doing.
Yup that was a solid article.
I’m still gunning for 20M pods and 2M macs this quarter.
Next year I think Apple could clear 10 M macs for the first time ever and maybe 50M pods, especially if they come out with some larger screen video iPod. That’s what I’m holding out for to replace my aging 3G iPod.
An ultralight portable could be neat for the road warriors. I would imagine Apple would resurrect the 12 inch book.
If the iPhone is real then that would add another revenue stream if it takes off. We already know about the iTV.
I’m pretty sure all the analysts are underestimating Apple’s revenue next year. That’s good cos it means the stocks will continue to rise on every improving results.
MW: “big” as in big news coming soon.