Analyst: Apple iPhone economics aren’t that compelling

“As more cell phone makers launch handsets that also play music, Apple Computer looks poised to defend its turf by going on the offensive with an iPod music player capable of making phone calls,” Patrick Seitz reports for Investor’s Business Daily.

“Until Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs unveils one on stage at a press event or tech conference — possibly Jan. 9 at Macworld in San Francisco — the iPhone will remain speculation,” Seitz reports.

“‘It makes sense for Apple to come out with an iPhone,’ said Kevin Burden, an analyst with telecom research firm Telephia. ‘With mobile phones becoming pretty good media players themselves, they’re already starting to cannibalize the MP3 player market a little bit, and it’s only going to accelerate,'” Seitz reports.

“If Apple can get even 1% or 2% of the estimated 1 billion cell phones that are sold next year it would be a huge positive, said Richard Stice, an analyst with Standard & Poor’s,” Seitz reports. “A true blockbuster could do far better. Motorola in July said it had sold 50 million of its ultra-sleek Razr handsets. Other analysts said an iPhone business is nothing to cheer about. ‘The economics of something like that aren’t that compelling,’ said Morningstar analyst Rod Bare.”

“Just look at Walt Disney’s failed ESPN Mobile venture, Bare said. Like Apple, the sports network has a strong brand and fanatical audience. But ESPN couldn’t make its mobile phone and service a success. Critics said ESPN’s service was overpriced and the one phone it offered wasn’t very appealing,” Seitz reports. “Don’t expect Apple to make the same mistakes.”

“‘Every time they come out with something, it’s eye-opening and it tends to send the market in a slightly different direction — which is to follow,’ Telephia’s Burden said,” Seitz reports.

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If and when Apple releases the product and reveals sales figures, we will certainly revisit Rod Bare’s ‘iPhone’ comment: “The economics of something like that aren’t that compelling.”

Related articles:
BusinessWeek: Wish List for Apple ‘iPhone’ – December 08, 2006
Apple ‘iPhone’ could cause Nokia, Palm, Motorola, and RIM to really start to sweat – December 07, 2006
Apple shares fall as CIBC sees ‘iPhone’ release delayed – December 07, 2006
Analyst expects 16GB flash-based Apple iPod video player, 4-8GB flash-based ‘iPhone’ models – December 07, 2006
CNET editor Kanellos: ‘Apple iPhone will largely fail’ – December 07, 2006
Prudential: Apple ‘iPhone’ to sport iPod click wheel; video iPod by Q2 – December 06, 2006
RUMOR: Apple’s smart phone project to feature ‘extensive integration with Mac OS X’ – December 05, 2006
Apple begins ‘iPhone’ production – December 05, 2006
Apple needs to think different about data security for ‘iPhone’ – December 05, 2006
Kevin Rose: Dual-battery Apple ‘iPhone’ coming in January; $249 for 4GB, $449 for 8GB – December 03, 2006

47 Comments

  1. Jimbo– I always thought your name sounded like a porn star; good call though! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

    Seriously, how can Bare compare the ESPN phone with an Apple product. First of all, APPLE IS A ELECTRONICS HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE COMPANY THAT HAS A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF DESIGNING AND MANUFACTURING POPULAR CONSUMER ELECTRONIC DEVICES. ESPN is a SPORTS NETWORK. Gee, do think Apple might have just a little bit more to bring to the table, Rod???

    Rod… you’re a dick.

  2. I do hope Apple makes a cell phone. The cell phone industry needs a player like Apple. Current cell phones are NOT easy to use, they are ugly and poorly designed. I hate my cell phone, it has so many badly designed “features”. I don’t need to look for a better one, because that phone doesn’t exist.
    I hope apple deletes some of the stupider “features” on its phone if it building one.
    Of course Apple cannot fix some of the other cell phone nightmares like bad connections, dropped calls etc.
    Will entering that business be good for Apple, I can’t tell weither it would be good for them.

  3. Um…apple is successful in the mp3 player market because they look at the big picture and deliver great products that consumers like. I think the espn venture failed because they probably made a sub-standard “solution”. they mucked up the hardware, or the software, or both. i have a feeling apple will come to market with a phone if it is a good product from the consumers perspective. it will have to be attractive in a number of different ways.

    Dont drink the koolaid:

    look troll, you bought a computer to type your blather so dont highbrow us. i recycle and i dont litter. i also dont buy peecees that will be obsolete in six months. i believe you get what you pay for and the return on investment is usually better in the long run for all parties involved. if you want to all-of-a-sudden turn amish on us then be my guest. tard.

  4. Apple is successful in the computer market, the mp3 player market, the retail store market, and the ‘je ne sais quoi’ market. No reason Apple can’t be successful in the cellular phone market. A well-designed, intuitively operated, computer-happy cell phone definitely has a market. I’m happy with my SonyEricsson Z520, mostly because it syncs and plays well with my computer, but I know it could be improved, and I know I’d be happy to pay for something improved- not just something with more bells and whistles. The whole idea of ‘improved’ is what Apple gets, and precious few others do.

  5. Apple is now getting FUD from the Phone manufacturing Industry?

    WOW, I heard rumors that the iPhone was so wicked cool, Jobs was just salivating to release it….now I don’t think it’s such a rumor.

  6. Is that like analysts predicting that the economics of the iPod was not that compelling? You know that Apple will enter this market with a “twist.” It will offer something that (once release) will be obvious, but no one has implemented yet (something “compelling” that customers will want). With Apple, you can’t extrapolate results based on what everyone else is doing because the only certainty is that Apple WILL NOT do want everyone else is doing.

  7. So… I’m looking forward to an Apple cellphone. I think the phones on the market now are not ideal in interface and design. I think apple could blow the doors off the market.

    BUT, its going to be curious what feature apple leaves off. A lot of apple’s innovations was openly shunning commonly accepted “manditory” technologies… floppy and scsi on the imac. The ipod resisted fm tuners and voice recorders… and for a long time games, address book, calendar, color and video. Heck, the nano even disregarded the screen, which was pretty surprising.

    so, the apple iphone will be great, but its going to require a hard swallow on whatever they decide is not mandatory. In retrospect it will be revolutionary, but what does job dislike? Address books? (would seem to be from the address book in osx). calendar? text messaging? will the phone only work on some proprietary service only available in houston and la?

    Dunno. if its unlocked and lets me use it overseas, i’ll buy it regardless the cost. That fact alone mirrored by a few more like me would guarantee a success.

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