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How in hell does this twirp know, prior to launch, whether anything will fail? Loser!

The only way in which phones are good is in that they pack a lot of stuff in a small package. The problem is that they don't offer a good user experience. Most functions go unused or used to a minimal extent. Where the iPhone or indeed any other product could succeed is by stripping down to what people can make use of and need and by doing it in a way that allows them to take advantage of the advanced technology being provided to them.

There is this seemingly neverending rush to make phones smaller and lighter and pack in more features but no thought as to why they're doing it. You get to a point where an object you hold in your hand becomes too small, is too light to comfortable wield and has too many features to be bothered with. Apple succeeded with the iPod by hitting that sweet spot of features, design and usability that resonated with the public. No-one is denying that phones will be harder since it's such an establised and unfamiliar market but to say that the competition is good is nonsense. If other phones were so good then people wouldn't be so excited by an iPhone and would use them instead of iPods.

Hmmm, now why couldn't THIS guy have been the one to take a trip to Oregon?

"Fans of insipid blather..."

ROTFLMFAO!

Slam something that exists in rumor alone - very good journalism, Kanellos! Trying to skip out on work early this week? Save some time by rattling off the first piece that comes to your head?


And, Des Gusting, too damn funny!!!

Cell phones are the most badly designed piece of portable hardware you can carry around with you.

This guys is speaking out his ass!

People are literally crying out for a simple you use phone that has an intuitive control method and interface.

There is NO phone on the market that has this and Apple is the only company that can do it right.

Besides - amazingly enough most people now dont give a shit about all the multi-media crap a phone can do (poorly I might add!) - people want a phone that they can make phone calls on!!

Now there IS an original concept - how about a mobile phone that is easy to make phone calls on...

Dippy. He needed something to write about and negativity sells.

People still don't seem to understand that Apple is a profitable company, even if it sells relatively few of anything. The iPod exploded its bottom line, but they made a lot of money before the iPod. All an Apple phone/device would need to do is sell 1% or even less, and Apple will be successful.

Microsoft at work. From Seattlepi.com.

In its latest report on major electronics manufacturers, Greenpeace ranked Apple dead last on environmental issues because it still uses harmful chemicals in many of its products and because it does a poor job promoting recycling efforts for its iPods and other products.

Greenpeace states that Dell is one the good guys.

To Greenpeace- "I'll buy only Apple compatible products from now. Go hug a tree, but look out for metal spikes that your lot have hammered into them."

"Hmmm, now why couldn't THIS guy have been the one to take a trip to Oregon?" That is just wrong. I would never wish someone to die because of reporting on some non-existent imaginary product.

I appreciate somebody finally saying something bad about Apple. Having used Macs for over 15 years, I'm not used to the good news.

If it makes that rotary noise when using the click wheel to dial, I'll buy it.

I'm first poster, I'm first poster, I'm first poster, I'm first poster, I'm first poster, I'm first poster!!!1

It's called the "Crackberry" because it is a forced addiction in the corporate environment. I know. That's what most of our field folks call it, and they resent every bit of it.

BTW, MDN, good takes.

He wants it to fail so he can say "I told you so" if does. CNET are notorious for attention grabbing headlines as well. We must give him hell if he's wrong.

If the phone is pulled off well I'll no doubt be a success. How many people carry around an iPod, mobile phone and a PDA? The Blackberry / Motorola Q / Samsung Blackjack are too big to cram in your pocket. How good would it be to have one little package that does it all. Add the Apple interface and you've got a winner.

the other Mark: lighten up, mate, it's commonly known as 'politically incorrect humour'!

The moon is truly made of cheese and we never landed there - it was all done on a movie set.

The world is really flat - the pictures of the world as a big blue ball are all done on a movie set.

Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good."


Sheesh... this guy is the best example of eating ones own dog food I have ever seen. Cell phones SUCK!! They offer 1001 "features" that all suck because they aren't implemented well or offer horrid user interfaces. The cell phone industry is the best poster boy for selling worthless features at the expense of real usability I have ever seen. Hopefully the iPhone - if it ever exists - will change all that.

MDN Magic word "likely" as in: This guy is likely to take the clueless FUDmeister award away from Rob Enderle.

Mark - DG is not really wanting him to die. It's... a joke.

Yet, how is this different than MDN's take on the Zune before it was released?

Yeah, let's all call him a moron for bashing an unreleased product. But keep in mind nobody asked MDN for restraint in their takes on the Zune before its release.

Are y'all sure he wasn't really talking about the Zune? Maybe it was just a typo.

MW:maybe, as in "Maybe".

"Granted, Apple will use contract manufacturers to assemble their phones, but designing these phones takes experience and talent. And the cell carriers are far deeper into it here."

Last time I checked carriers such as Sprint, Cingular, T-Mobile, etc. don't make phones.

This guy has no idea what he's talking about.

He has a point - there is no need that is not being catered for that Apple will serve with its phone. It will be just like the Apple base stations - nice but not esssential.

"While a requiem for vapor is yet another interesting way to waste bandwidth, we'll wait for the product to actually be released before we comment further, thanks."

Hey, what are you talking about? You and lots of others said a bunch of times way before it came out that the Microsoft Zune would be a big piece of poop and now that it is actually out... well... umm...

So that proves... ummm... that...

actually an "iPhone" would be a very difficult thing to pull off. Articles like these are necessary to keep the pressure on to execute at all levels.

possibly Apple could simultaneously license Mac OSX Mobile to Motorola.

How the Hell MDN knows that the iphone is going to be a smashing success?

I've had a number of cellphones and they vary between out and out dreadful and adequate. My current Sony Ericsson 750 is the best one I've had, but it's still very clunky to operate and there are aspects of it's operation that infuriate me, so it's no better than adequate.

If anybody comes out with a phone that suits me better, I'd swap that day. If anybody comes out with a phone that better integrated with my Macs, I'd pre-order it ahead of release.

I have every confidence that if Apple manufacture a phone, it will be quite different to the phones we are used to and the first one may have fewer features than many others. Some will inevitably hate it because it isn't what they're familiar with, but you can be quite certain that it will have been designed to do a great job of the things that Apple reckons that it's users will be doing with it. Their needs will doubtless be different to those of the geeks who always end up reviewing them and just as the iPod was initially met with a lukewarm reception, the iPhone will prove it's worth by actually doing what people really want it to do.

Spreading the FUD pretty early now aren't we CNET? You don't have a clue what the iPhone is or it's features and you think it will fail. Apple came into the MP3 business quite late in the game and all of you FUD spreaders said the same thing about the iPod.
Look what happened.
Apple is a different breed, everyone is stuck in the 90's breed of Apple. Well this new Apple is much different and much smarter and they're proving it everyday.
So let's just see what the iPhone can really do and how it really works before we spread the FUD, shall we.

- "I still can't believe this! All this hype for something so ridiculous! Who cares about an MP3 player?"

- "All that hype for an MP3 player? Break-thru digital device? The Reality Distiortion Field is starting to warp Steve's mind if he thinks for one second that this thing is gonna take off."

- "Better bring that price down or you wont sell any of these babies"

Comments from clueless readers after the 2001 iPod introduction.

Let's wait and see...
the phone will be our new purse for making payments as well.
Everybody is spending money now and than, don't they?

I've been waiting for a couple of years now to buy a new cell phone.... WAITING FOR THE iPHONE!! Release it already!!

Let's play Santa for this guy! Let's collect some cash so he can celibrate Christmas in Sadr-City Iraq.....

MacB


....what a dumb piece of "nostradamus playing" shit...

New phones come out very frequently.
Apple is too slow to bring out new product. (whether it be phones, mp3 players or computers.)
Apple can´t compete in the fast changing phone market.

I hate CNET. The only good CNETer is a dead CNETer.

That's right, I went there.

Cell phones suck. They're crap to program and navigate on.

Apple has a real chance to change the way people use cell phones, marry it to the computer with good software, killer interface and great features.

I'm ready to ditch my Razr, it REALLY sucks and it is the best cell phone I ever had.

Kanellos should work at Microsoft. With his attitude that existing products are already so good that there's no need to innovate further, he'd fit right in. In fact, I'd like to suggest to him that, over the course of human history, everything that needs to be said has already been written, so he should put away his keyboard. All the words we need are already available, and anything new that's written is bound to fail.

"Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good."

no, they're not, in my experience. they're not rugged, they're flimsy, and navigating the menus is often a frustrating experience. personally i DO want Bluetooth on my phone, but if i want that feature i have to get a phone with some crap camera feature i'll never use.

if all Apple does is come out with a more rugged, reliable phone that has an intuitive user interface...and that's ALL...i'd buy it.

What other predictions has Kanellos made and how accurate has he been in seeing the future? Surely, Kanellos has a history of his prognostic skills. He could be right on the mark or he could be full of crap.

I have a Treo 650 which is good but is SO lacking in SO many areas. The GUI is mediocre at best (and it has one of the best GUIs out there, IMHO). There's SO much room for improvement.

I only know one thing: Steve Jobs has impeccable taste and I, for one, will put up my Treo on eBay the day the iPhone comes out.

I agree that the iPod had a very different position in the market than the iPhone will and that, because of that, is not analogous. I do not recall anyone saying that is the cases. I also do not believe that the iPhone has to, or can, dominate the cell phone market like iPod. Only the very delusional would think so. It has to sell well enough to be profitable.

However, there is one part of the iPod story that is analogous - people are drawn to hardware that is simple and easy to use (eg clickwheel). I agree that there is already a lot of good hardware out there. However, if Apple can give a better onboard software experience, that will differentiate it. I really like my phone, but the menu system is needlessly complicated and poorly organized. Part of this comes from the service provider wanting to stick their bullshit in and to impose their limits on the hardware.

The related area is integration of hardware with computer. Oh, I can connect it. But the experience is very MicroShaft-esque. If Apple can deliver a phone that actually is easy to sync and manage, like an iPod, then THAT will be something that no phone delivers in the US right now. It is also something people will gravitate to. Not saying RAZR like blockbuster. Saying profitable.

The last thing is that, sure, cell phones in the US are good. However, in other parts of the world, they are great. The service providers cripple them or make sure they do not have top of the line features in some areas while they wait to figure out how to monetize the features. Hopefully, the iPhone will change that.

Of course, that is all based on Apple's track record. However, the argument that US cell phones are state of the art is goofy.

"...As with any Apple product release, it will be ushered into the world on a wave of obligatory gushing," Kanellos writes....".

That's right. Now, bow down.

Seriously... The phones from Apple are going to have a hard time cathcing op to some of Sony Ericssons best. Trust me, I want an iPhone but if it is less than stellar, my K800i is coming out of the drawer again. Slow interface and unintuitive texting kills phone companys. Ask Siemens/benQ. If the iPhone is not super, it will become a kiddy-phone, like LG or Samsung... Not the best segment. My two cents...

I hate my phone. Give me an Apple designed product anyday.

Next years CNET headline-

"No One Buying iPhones!!!"
(because they are all sold out)

I am a S.F. analyst too.

And I am a friend of Michael Kanellos.

Let me tell you guys, Michael Kanellos is ALWAYS right.

If he says that the iPod phone will fail -- IT WILL FAIL.

That's why he is an analyst and you guys are not.

He went to school for that stuff.

He has a degree in that stuff.

He has experience saying that kind of stuff.

And when an analyst like Michael Kanellos say something,
everybody listens -- and Mac Daily News publishes what
he says -- because everyone knows he is most likely CORRECT.

So there you have it.

Michael Kanellos is an analyst and Michael Kanellos knows the iPhone
WILL FAIL.

The iPhone won't "squirt."

My Motorola looks really cool...and I hate it. Non-intuitive interface. I make a call/receive a call. I do ot use any other feature, even the camera (it sucks). The radio in it sucks....needed a special connector which I bought and used for 1 day.

My wife literally hates her Treo. What a piece of design garbage that is.

Would love to have a useable camera with easy to transfer pictures An intuitive contact list. Maybe an iTunes music interface to play a few tunes. But most of all, good sound!

Apple has a chance to do it right. Will they, who knows but experience tells me that since Stevie-boy has been taking his time on this, I suspect he will be doing it right. I will buy one.

The iPhone 'MIGHT' fail.... BUT its gonna sell but the truck loads....

If the iPhone is real
If it works half as well and intuitively as my iPod
I will replace my RAZR in a heartbeat
else
I will continue to live with a crappy interface, crippled features,
and unbelievably bad support
else
I will be sad.

Cell phones: "really good." Hahahahahaha. Like Windows, cell phones and the cell carriers have taught untold millions to accept mediocrity, inconvenience and frustration as the norm. And THAT's unfortunate.

For myself, the success will stand and fall with the pricetag and the phone being not bundled with a certain provider.
The iPod wouldn't have been a success either if they would have bundled it with a subscription.

I saw this guy as a guest commenter on cNBC. His bias against Apple products was so palpable and evident, that I remembered his name (never heard of him before.)

At the time, he was ridiculing the Macbook as far too expensive, and nobody will buy it (except fringe groups like silly students who think its pretty) when they can get a Dell for $300 less. What struck me is that he NEVER mentioned the differences and advantages of the Mac OS. I became suspicious of his motives...

Now it's all clear what Kanellos is all about...

~~My sincere sympathies to the Kim family and friends~~

Funny, my Mom just got a new cell. And it took ME about 10 minutes to find the voicemail command. Then I begged my mom to write down the key sequence so she wouldn't get lost in the menus. It reminds me of the days of DOS software "It's user friendly cuz it's menu driven..."

SJ does not walk on water and I don't know if Apple will get it right. But there IS definitely room for improvement. And if Apple gets it right, they'll certainly get mindshare and have distribution clout.

Honestly, I find it hard to find the phone in the current generation of phones.

Michael Kanellos You're an idiot!