“I predict Apple’s sales this quarter will break $7 billion,” Carl Howe writes for Blackfriars’ Marketing.
Howe breaks down Apple’s quarter as follows:
• Desktops: 700,000 units, $976 million revenue
• Portables: 1,200,000 units, $1,637 million revenue
• iPods: 20,000,000 units, $3,300 million revenue
• Other (Software/iTunes/Periphs): N/A, $1,102 million revenue
Total revenue: $7,015 million
Howe writes, “The eye-catching number, of course, is the number of iPods: 20 million, worth roughly about $3.3 billion in revenue.”
Howe explain his reasoning in the full article, addressing these points:
• Apple shipped 14 million [iPods] last Q4
• iPod pricing now addresses more market segments
• Consumers now have more reasons to choose the market leader
• Apple retail stores will drive iPod demand
Howe writes, “Apple is well on its way to reaping the profits from five years of investments in music and retail. And because few other companies have invested as much for as long, it will also take years for anyone to dislodge it from its now dominant position.”
Full article here.
I had 20 million ipods once.
Key word = “investment”
Microsoft never invests.
I wish I had one . . .
20 million iPods? Maybe, but if they do hit that number it will be with the help of the new $79 Shuffle, which has become a VERY affordable Christmas gift. Unfortunately, at that price point, it will drive the total revenue down.. Even if they hit 20 million units, I don’t think they’ll make 3 billion in revenue.
I will be blown away if they sell 20 million. I figure 16 million. Because I’m a speacialist, yea, I can claim that too.
Doing a little simple math shows that 20-million iPods at an average of $150 each is a whopping $3-billion.
If they sell a ton of iPod shuffles, they’ll need to sell three tons of iPod nanos and another ton of iPods with video to make the numbers.
Looking over the past three years or so, it’s Apple that’s been delivering surprises.
One more good surprise won’t hurt.
If we don’t set our expectations SO HIGH, we (and the analysts) won’t be let down..
If everyone starts throwing around the 20 million number and Apple doesn’t hit it, then AAPL will tank. Better to expect a more reasonable number and be pleasantly surprised if they beat it.
iPod nano has been the best seller so far. And the iPod shuffle? Well, it’s light years ahead of the original and is a no brainer for gifts. I’ll give out a dozen of them.
They had Shuffles last year too so I doubt it will skew the figures. Apple have sold over 10m Shuffles before the 2nd generation one had been released.
A more reasonable view would be…
17.5 million iPods @ $175.00 = $3.062 billion
1.75 million CPUs @ $1275.00 = $2.231 billion
That’s 5.293 billion, call it $5.3 billion
Add in another $1.3 for iTMS, software, displays, etc. and you’ve got $6.6 billion and around $742.50 million in profit.
Any more than that and any sane man should be jumping for joy.
Of course, if you want to see some real sales figures, wait until the two iPhones and the vPod are released at MWSF 07.
Tommy Boy –
The truth is Microsoft DOES invest, billions a year in fact. They have some of the brightest scientists on the planet doing basic research (like Bell Labs and IBM used to do) The question is, what are they getting for their investment. So far, not all that much.
Buy AAPL while you can.
Dead serious.I dropped a ton on more this week.
Next year, maybe Q1, ’07, it’ll split again.
SB
MDN: “window” as in this is your window of opportunity!
Every shuffle given as gift is almost a gaurantee of a later purchase of another iPod.
$7 billion? How many points is that?
The significant point, in my view, is that Apple has attained its dominant market position after years of investing and hard work. Some people criticize Apple’s success as though they had stolen something! SHEESH!!!
Actually MS invests a lot in their customers. They make sure that their largest customers are successful installing their crappy software. Many large corporations do not have very bright IT people and CIOs like getting “free” help from major companies like MS, Oracle or IBM. Of course, at the end, they end-up paying a lot for those services, but that does not concern most CIOs, since it is not their money anyway. What they do not want is to look incompetent.
On the other hand, Apple tries to enable their customers but they provide little to none consulting services, specially for large corporations. Only large organizations with self-sufficient IT staffs can consider buying Apple gear. They can reap the benefits of a stable and surprisingly cheap server platform (XServe), but the truth is that this is a very small portion of the market. However, we shouldn’t fool ourselves. There is a reason why IBM, Oracle and MS sell to enterprises the way they do. It is what their customers demand. If that changes in the future they will be able to lower their prices too.
I just want to point out that if you look over Carl Howe’s old predictions, he’s done very well.
As for the comment, that the 20M figure will hurt Apple stock if it doesn’t come true, the counterpoint is that the stock will run up based upon that expectation, and come down, if it is not met. So, the come down, is balanced by the run up.
Apple continues to stand out as a hot company. Even if they miss the $20 mill mark, they are still expanding unlike anyone else. That makes them attractive.
“$7 billion? How many points is that?”
First, convert dollars to Euros.
Convert Euros to degress Celcius.
Divide that by 4, then add 23.
Do a little dance.
Take the number from the step before and convert to hexidecimal.
Take the sum of the digits.
It’s that easy.
Fucking Apple retards.
I had points once.