MP3.com founder: ‘Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid’

“I’ve been looking for a good verb to describe losing all of your music to DRM because it’s increasingly common and I think I have one: zune,” Michael Robertson (MP3.com founder) blogs for MichaelRobertson.com. “Sample usage: He had an extensive classic rock collection that got zuned.”

Robertson writes, “Now if you’re thinking that zune sounds familiar it’s because the press has been abuzz about an upcoming MP3 player from Microsoft called Zune. At first glance the features seem compelling but my prediction is it will be the biggest flop of 2007 with less than 50,000 units sold worldwide.”

“The wow feature of the [Zune] is [supposed to be] wifi – a wireless way to connect to the Internet. Great – I can get music directly to the device without a PC! Wrong. In a baffling move Microsoft has crippled the wifi so it cannot load music from the Internet. You’ll need to attach it to your PC and run their software just like every other MP3 player. The wireless connection is only used to connect to another Zune device to move songs which will then vaporize after 3 days or 3 plays even if you own the music and both devices. Astonishingly the one feature which could fundamentally improve upon the iPod is worthless,” Robertson writes.

“In spite of the larger display and capacity the Zune is inferior… because it zunes your entire purchased music library. Microsoft made a corporate decision to abandon their previous technology called ‘Plays for Sure’ and turn it into ‘Screwed for Sure.’ Anyone who purchased music from Rhapsody, Napster, Buy.com, Wal-mart, BuyMusic, etc. will discover that music is unplayable,” Robertson writes.

Robertson writes, “The danger with DRM is that it gives corporations the power to change the rules of the game anytime they think it will benefit their bank account, even if that means zuning your music library. There’s no better illustration of this than when the world’s largest technology company curtails support of their OWN technology abandoning their hardware partners, music stores and most importantly customers they convinced to use Plays for Sure. Microsoft will surely claim that they’ll continue to support Plays for Sure, but their actions speak louder than their words – it won’t even play on their own music players! Plays for Sure is dead for sure and it’s going to its grave with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of music fans’ digital music crammed into the coffin.”

Robertson writes, “Microsoft will likely spend nearly $100 million in marketing the Zune. The press will give them tens of millions of dollars in free marketing. In spite of this publicity the Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid. As the saying goes: Zune me once, shame on you. Zune me twice, shame on me.”

Full article here.

[Michael Roberton’s high-profile startups include MP3.com, where he established the largest collection of digital music in the world, amassing more than 1 million downloadable MP3 files. Robertson also spearheaded change in corporate business music services and put the power of CD creation in artists’ hands by offering a host of support technologies and services. Vivendi Universal purchased the profitable company in 2001 for $372 million in stock and cash.

Michael’s next project was to start Linspire, Inc., a company that produces an affordable, license-free desktop Linux operating system. In 2003, Robertson founded SIPphone.com, a company that harnesses the power of the Internet to allow customers to make free long distance phone calls. In 2005, Michael reentered the MP3 business with his latest venture MP3tunes, an online music store and artist music service that offers digital music without digital rights management.]

Related articles:
Microsoft fails to secure key Zune domains – October 04, 2006
Microsoft rigs Zune with tricky pricing and proprietary money schemes – October 03, 2006
Why Microsoft’s Zune won’t kill Apple’s iPod – October 03, 2006
10 Apple iPod vs. Microsoft Zune myths – October 02, 2006
Analyst: Zune could lead to ‘civil war’ between Microsoft and Windows Media partners – September 29, 2006
Thurrott on Microsoft’s Zune: ‘The makings of a disaster, what the heck are these people thinking?’ – September 29, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune’s as good as dead on arrival – September 28, 2006
Microsoft sets 30GB Zune price at $249.99 – September 28, 2006
How Microsoft’s Zune can kill Apple’s iPod – September 21, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune insanity – September 21, 2006
The Microsoft Zune 1.0 dud – September 20, 2006
Microsoft’s underwhelming Zune a ‘viral DRM’ device – September 18, 2006
SanDisk teams with RealNetworks against new common foe: Microsoft Zune – September 18, 2006
Creative does Apple’s dirty work by immediately attacking Microsoft’s Zune – September 17, 2006
Motley Fool’s Jayson: Microsoft’s ‘just plain ugly’ Zune a meager offering, not an iPod killer – September 15, 2006
What’s in a name? ‘Zune’ a French-Canadian euphemism for penis or vagina – September 15, 2006
Crave at CNET: ‘Microsoft Zune, all the excitement that brown can bring’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune underwhelms – September 15, 2006
Enderle: Microsoft Zune ‘a design mistake’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft hypocrisy exposed with Zune: What ever happened to ‘choice?’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune with fake scroll wheel ‘hardly an Apple iPod killer’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune won’t spoil Apple’s biggest iPod Christmas ever – September 14, 2006
Microsoft unveils Zune 30GB player, Zune Marketplace; declines to disclose prices – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s Zune an ‘underwhelming’ repackaged Toshiba Gigabeat; no threat to Apple iPod – August 30, 2006
Microsoft confirms brick-like Zune to be made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft Zune is chunky brick made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft to spend hundreds of millions, several years on Zune trying to catch Apple iPod+iTunes – July 27, 2006
Zune: Apple cannot lose. Microsoft cannot win. – July 26, 2006

Computerworld review: ‘Apple’s new iPods are better than ever’ – September 27, 2006
PC Magazine’s 19th Annual Readers’ Choice Awards for MP3 players: Apple iPod line – September 25, 2006
USA Today reviews new Apple iPod nanos, updated iPods, iTunes 7 (each earns 4 stars out of 4) – September 21, 2006
Time Magazine’s Gadget of the Week: Apple iPod 80GB – September 21, 2006
CNET Editor’s Choice: Apple fifth-gen updated iPod – ‘best, most attractive iPod to date’ – September 20, 2006
Disney’s remarkable 1st week iTunes movies sales should have studios clambering aboard Apple train – September 20, 2006
Disney sells 125,000 movie downloads via Apple’s iTunes Store in first week – September 19, 2006
PC Magazine review: iTunes 7 ‘Apple’s best effort yet’ (4 stars out of 5) – September 15, 2006
CNET Editor’s Pick: Apple’s new 2G iPod nano – ‘sure to be top choice among wide range of users’ – September 14, 2006
Apple debuts new iPod in 30GB and 80GB with Hollywood movies, games and new lower price – September 12, 2006
Apple intros new iPod nano with new aluminum design in five colors and 24-hour battery life – September 12, 2006
Apple unveils new iPod shuffle: world’s smallest digital music player – September 12, 2006
Apple debuts iTunes 7 – September 12, 2006

49 Comments

  1. I think Microsoftie has contributed to the world in great ways! This has been another huge expensive addition to the languages of the human race to add another word for “failure” “waste” “junk” “catastrophe” “dud” and numerous others that the word ‘Zune’ will replace! We can now use them in the ways that Microsquish has given us alternatives for ‘Windows’ ‘Security’ and other M$ ‘firsts’ have given us alternative definitions for.

    Thanks Microwhatever!

  2. I beg to differ, there area a LOT of stupid consumers out there that take whatever is shoved thier way… this alone will let the zune have some success, they have the whole windows userbase to start off with

  3. I agree with erk. As much as I’d like to believe all of what I’ve read about the Zune’s DOA probability, a part of me fears that yes, customers ARE stupid, and will buy anything they’re told. Imagine if Microsoft or some retailer gets the idea of bundling the Zune with some low-end entry level PC and/or Vista (if it ever ships). That might prevent the uninitiated from ever considering an iPod since they’ll have the Zune, and put the Zune in more homes that it might otherwise.

    While I don’t think it’s likely, I just hope we’re not going to be eating crow about all this next year.

  4. You only have to look at comments on vaious forums to see there are some really really stupd people out there trying to make a case for the crappo Zune…

    Guess they’re feeling a little..overwhelmed by all the “positive” comment being generated..

  5. Zuned. Rhymes nicely with p00ned.

    He is right on the first part, that it’ll most likely fail, though it’s unlikely that it’ll be because of the lack of stupidity in the existing Microsoft userbase. It’s there in abundance.

  6. In general, I agree with Roberson, despite his dig at Apple in the first paragraph of his article. Adding DRM (which I despise, BTW) to iTunes purchases is not the equivalent of making them a rental.

    However, IMHO, he’s pretty much spot on with his analysis of the Zune, except I think MS will probably sell several hundred thousand if not millions, although not right away.

    A funny thing is, after reading his article, a car analogy occured to me.

    Will the Zune be the Edsel of the mp3 player market?

  7. You only have to look at comments on vaious forums to see there are some really really stupd people out there trying to make a case for the crappo Zune…

    And oh, what stupid comments they are. Usually along the lines of “Yay! Wi-Fi!” (ignoring/unaware of how useless the Wi-Fi actually is), or “The bigger screen kicks iPod’s ass!” (the bigger screen has the same resolution as the iPod, which means the picture will look less sharp).

  8. I think the answer to my question is, “because it’s M$ and it’s typical for them”. I can easily understand why M$ or any other company would like to have a iPod competitor, but why would any company go to market with one so totally lame compared to the market leader?

    I simply can’t believe the WIFi crapola. And the part about losing all your purchased music from everybody else? The name of the game should be to welcome all formats and promote the idea that unlike that “other” company, you aren’t closed. This was a perfect opportunity, and M$ blew it. I wouldn’t have bought one; i’ll stick with the best, but I can’t help saying, what were they thinking?

  9. Interesting how MDN left out the part about people losing their iTunes collection as well.

    Who the hell has ever lost their iTunes collection? There’s no excuse.

    1) You should back up your collection.
    2) Even if you don’t backup your collection, Apple can be talked into allowing you to redownload it once.
    3) If you burn standard CDs of all music you buy, you can never lose anything, because that CD can be re-ripped to any format.

  10. I’m not worried about MS giving these away with computer purchases- people will be that much more willing to stick it in a drawer or eBay it once they try it out and learn for themselves that it’s crap and has far more limitations than iPod.

  11. LordRobin:

    Excellent points, however, I will refer you to the above comments by erk, Toochman and Macaday. People will absolutely lose their collections using Zune as undoubtedly countless thousands of Apple users have with iPods.

  12. LordRobin, I think the commentor meant to say that anyone who gets zuned will “lose” their iTunes library in the sense of not being able to use it on their new player.

    Hopefully everyone will be informed enough to know that they are buying into a closed system.

    Note to potential Xmas gift-receivers: if you think Zune is a stupid idea , make sure you let your families know! Some well-meaning parent or grandparent is going to think, “The latest thing in Mp3 players! My kid will love it!”

    Or, not.

  13. Jay asked, “[W]hy would any company go to market with one so totally lame compared to the market leader?”

    Because that’s Microsoft’s MO. They bring out an inferior product, get reamed for it, and them make improvements in the second and third generations, which gains them some praise in the media because they supposedly listened to consumers.

    In reality, Microsoft simply prevented a horrible investment by changing a product so that it could compete.

    Zune won’t knock iPod down, it will just grab market share from the other Windows MP3 players.

  14. do you know how much data was uploaded to MP3.com before it went bust? and this guy wants people to put their collections on MP3Tunes?

    lol.

    The market has spoken. we like iTunes and iPods. get over it MR

    ..besides it’s obvious in the natural progression of things that Apple will offer online storage. When the time is right

  15. “The danger with DRM is that it gives corporations the power to change the rules of the game anytime they think it will benefit their bank account, even if that means zuning your music library.”

    You mean DRM is not about piracy! Of course not. How could controlling less than 1% of all music (I mean music in the household, not marketshare sold) be related to piracy, I’ll never know. But they’ve sure convinced a lot of people that it is. No other way to explain people violently equating DRM free downloads of music with piracy and cheating artists.

  16. The author Michael here.

    First about MP3.com. Yes, I sold the company. As the CEO of a public company I don’t get to make any decision I want. I have an obligation to the shareholders. Vivendi Universal made an offer 35% higher than the stock price so you pretty much have to accept that or face lots of lawsuits from shareholders.

    I’ve read a few comments about accusing me of leaving indie artists high and dry. I don’t think I did and here’s why. When I started MP3.com all the music hosting sites required payment from the artists, demanded exclusivity, had lots of limitations about number of songs/bandwidth, etc. MP3.com changed all that. Today there are many many artist hosting sites all free and non requiring exclusivity.

    While I was CEO, MP3.com made more than 10 million dollars in royalties to artists for uploading their free music to our site. And when we went public we included every artist and customer in the friends and family program to buy up to 500 shares. I don’t know of any other music sites that has done any of those things.

    Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I think if you look at the facts MP3.com treated artists very well.

    — MR

  17. “In 8 months, people will be referring to “dropping the Z bomb” as a reference to profanity.”

    Taking into account there will be a brown model, if Zune ends up being as bad as most everyone thinks it will be (excepting MS of course), it could well become another four-letter euphemism for excrement.

    Works for me.

  18. The most laughable part… are you crazy
    zune comes with videos on release

    you people forgetting one thing hack and modding of zune.and its funny why nobody talks about battery life (12 hours for audio) kind of suck but who knows.

    and guess what brow will be new white ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

  19. “The most laughable part… are you crazy
    zune comes with videos on release”

    Okay I was wrong. I read somewhere that it wouldn’t play video but that’s apparently now out of date. The wi-fi is still a complete joke.

  20. Hi Michael,

    I agree, you were a pioneer with MP3.com and I appreciate it. Your company contacted my tiny indie label early on and requested our tunes. We were too slow to hook up with you, but you started a revolution. Hope you’re doing well.

    An ancillary anecdote: Today I was at the AES exhibition in San Francisco, and met one of the manufacturers of quality audio editing/processing multitrack (DAW) software. A visitor at the booth was blaming MP3s and iPods for the loss of quality in today’s consumer audio hardware and music market. I told him, MP3s are not about low quality, they are about mobility and portability and faster downloading and less storage, etc. People who really care about the best audio quality will still listen to a CD or SACD at home.

    Then the manufacturer said, “I don’t have an iPod, I have Zen, and I use quality headphones and it’s all I need.” I was flabbergasted. The guy is selling $25k audio systems, and listens on a Zen. Oh, and his software was PC only…

  21. Michael, I was on MP3.com too and it was good. Just that it went away! Artists need something reliable. I think your companies should partner with iTunes instead of trying to destabilize a growing market.

    iTunes is the first time we’ve ever made decent income from our hours and expenses in the studio. *Finally* something works. So it’s hard to support you when you keep attacking it. It’s putting food on the table over here. I’m no the only one, many o my peers who were on MP3.com with us are finding the same thing.

    iTunes is working for indie artists. The new Napster is helping a little. Musicnet well they have been very slow in getting our project on their servers…I’m not even sure they want indie content anymore.

    What I would really like is more companies like that can help get tunes to the various music services and help manage the accounting for multiple band members.

    But as of now Apple is really rockin for indie artists.

  22. lol dude roberston … how much did apple pay you to write this??? lol so first of all i owuld like to say all the consumers can do now (we) is to wait and see and we cannot predict wether its gonna fail or not. secound of all i can bet wid my life that more than 50000 units are going to be sold. thirdly even though i admire apple’s ipod which has revolutinized the music industry if it manages to defeat mimcrosoft this coming winter then apple would hve some sort of monopoly. Lastly remember bill gates in E3 when he announced live everywhere well i am sure the wifi will play a great role in this program when vista gets launched.

  23. lol dude roberston … how much did apple pay you to write this??? lol so first of all i owuld like to say all the consumers can do now (we) is to wait and see and we cannot predict wether its gonna fail or not. secound of all i can bet wid my life that more than 50000 units are going to be sold. thirdly even though i admire apple’s ipod which has revolutinized the music industry if it manages to defeat mimcrosoft this coming winter then apple would hve some sort of monopoly. Lastly remember bill gates in E3 when he announced live everywhere well i am sure the wifi will play a great role in this program when vista gets launched.

    PS: Many microsoft haters said when the xbox came out the same nonsence and look at this it seems like the xbox 360 is gonna lead the market so pce

  24. nagulbs,

    If Ms and its Zune is depending on your quality of support, then its certain to be excrementally Zuned.

    Good luck, you need it, and thanks for illustrating so well the view of many posters here on the nature of Zune “fans”…

  25. MAC aday

    I am just trying to be as unbiased as i can.
    If we all keep saying the zune will fail then most propably it will.

    PS: Can someone fill me in with what has been happening with the blueray disc?? Is it doing well??

    PS2: Why is everyone on this blog such a apple lover

  26. Robertson writes, “… In spite of this publicity the Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid.”

    I suspect that the vast majority of people will stick with the iPod rather than to shoot themselves in the foot with Zune. But when I read Robertson’s statement above, the first thing that came to mind was, “If people aren’t stupid, then why do most computer users use Windows?”.

  27. naguibs writes “I am just trying to be as unbiased as i can. If we all keep saying the zune will fail then most probably it will.”

    Are you freeking kidding me? Do you remember the original iPod and all the claims (most notably by cNet) that it’s high price, firewire connection and incompatibility with PC’s was a guaranteed failure? All the critics were wrong about that. Completely wrong!

    You must believe in magic spells cast by chanting will have some real effect. I think the Zune will bomb not because we say it will, but due to it’s own poorly executed design and features. You don’t have to be Harry Potter to see the obvious!

  28. wdh is everyone so upset with the zune even for you guys (apple lover) introducing a new music player is fair competiotn and both companies will try to improve the quality of their product and in the end the consumers will get the best out of it all

    Montex: what does the qoute you got out of my comment hav anything to do with what you said afterwards.

    Zune’s first product wont be perfect but as more come out of it they will gradually improve like what apple did with their first ipod to the current one

  29. Then the manufacturer said, “I don’t have an iPod, I have Zen, and I use quality headphones and it’s all I need.” I was flabbergasted. The guy is selling $25k audio systems, and listens on a Zen. Oh, and his software was PC only…

    —–
    So, consumers aren’t allowed to have choice anymore, just get in the lobotomy line and pick up their Ipood on the way out, eh?

    Here’s a thought: He might actually LIKE the Zen over an IPod.

    Let’s remember the first Ipods and their wonderful dead battery routine. Nothing is perfect.

    Sony and others laughed when the X-Box arrived. “It won’t last!”, etc. etc.

    Here’s a little rhyme, “Zune will ruin many an IPood sale”.

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