The New York Times’ David Pogue presents, “for your nostalgia pleasure,” some articles from major publications featuring analysts and columnists predictions from ten years ago:
• Fortune, 2/19/1996: “By the time you read this story, the quirky cult company…will end its wild ride as an independent enterprise.”
• BusinessWeek, 10/16/95: “Having underforecast demand, the company has a $1 billion-plus order backlog….The only alternative: to merge with a company with the marketing and financial clout to help Apple survive the switch to a software-based company. The most likely candidate, many think, is IBM Corp.”
• A Forrester Research analyst, 1/25/96 (quoted in, of all places, The New York Times): “Whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know it is cooked. It’s so classic. It’s so sad.”
• Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft’s chief technology officer, 6/97: “The NeXT purchase is too little too late. Apple is already dead.”
• Wired, “101 Ways to Save Apple,” 6/97: “1. Admit it. You’re out of the hardware game.”
• The Economist, 2/23/95: “Apple could hang on for years, gamely trying to slow the decline, but few expect it to make such a mistake. Instead it seems to have two options. The first is to break itself up, selling the hardware side. The second is to sell the company outright.”
• The Financial Times, 7/11/97: “Apple no longer plays a leading role in the $200 billion personal computer industry. ‘The idea that they’re going to go back to the past to hit a big home run…is delusional,’ says Dave Winer, a software developer.”
Pogue writes, “This is why, when anyone asks me what the future of technology holds, or what kids will be bringing to school in 2016, I politely decline to answer.”
More in his full blog post here.
Related articles:
Apple’s Mac market share rises over 24-percent year-over-year – September 21, 2006
Apple Mac’s 2007 market share climb will dumbfound almost everyone, create mayhem in PC market – September 08, 2006
Apple gaining traction as Mac market share increases – July 31, 2006
Apple market share myths deconstructed – July 22, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 4.8% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 4.6% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
‘Fantastic quarter’ helps Apple double share of U.S. retail notebook market to 12% – July 19, 2006
BusinessWeek: big market-share gains coming for Apple’s Macintosh – June 15, 2006
Analyst: Apple Mac market share primed to explode; iPod Halo Effect to become increasingly important – June 13, 2006
Analysts: Apple Mac market share to surge by end of 2006 – June 07, 2006
Analysts expect Apple’s new MacBook to drive market share gains in near future – May 17, 2006
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005
All these quotes – at the time – were logically not far off the mark. Apple was truly circling the drain with no way out.
But the NeXT purchase brought back Steve Jobs, and while we know what that did now, back in the past, we didn’t see it being a big deal…
It was a big deal – a huge deal, but why?
1. Steve Jobs appears to be a visionary, and consumer focused technology companies need such a leader – Steve Jobs mind is custom built for this purpose.
2. Steve, amazingly enough, knew enough to get the right people in his camp and re-organize the company. He knows how to focus people, and thus a company to do the things which are important/critical to the vision.
3. Execution also seems to be in play, but it might be confused with perfection and impatience. Looking from the outside in, it would appear Steve does not tolerate delays or scant few of them, nor does he tolerate sub-par products. These are all signs of perfectionistic, take no prisioneers/play to win, and only to win, mentality, which all seems to stem from Jobs.
The only one who could see this large a victory – at present – is probably Jobs…
The next big question isn’t whether Apple will conquer the living-room, that will happen. The real question is, how will Steve lead Apple beyond entertainment and keep cutting Redmond off at it’s counter-attacking knees?
AND, will Apple choose to take Redmond on in the office? If so, how does Steve think this will be done? Does it interest him? Can he change the game so it is on his turf in order to do so?…
It was all me.
Steven is my puppet.
And they said Dell was dead.
Dell lands U.S. Army contract
“The contract means Dell gets to provide an indefinite quantity of gear worth up to $5bn.”
<snip>
“Obviously, the army was pleased with the added feature of Dell laptops that they could be hurled at the enemy or used to provide a smoke screen for retreating troops.”
Before getting too smug, everyone should read the “101 Ways To Save Apple” from 1997 at Wired:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.06/apple.html
The item bjf quoted above (about case design) is only one of many that have come to pass (in general if not the details). They mention dumping Newton, cameras, and printers; doing switcher ads; a rebranding campaign; emphasizing speed (which they did soon after with the G3 ads); changing the logo; simplifying the product line and product naming; stores-within-stores; moving to Intel; making great proprietary apps; getting rid of wires; even that Jobs should regrow his beard!!
With the exception of the iPod and Apple Stores, they pretty much got Apple’s resurgence pegged. I think Jobs may have a copy of that article pinned to his office wall.
Hey, God, don’t take all the credit.
Like a lot of governments, we have to use the dominant computing platform in Hell (Windows of course!), so I whispered a few gems in Steve’s ear to help the cause.
Ah, it’s only a matter of time now before I get my hands on a Mac!
OK, for the record, I hate windows and most MS software. It can work, but it was designed more like an oversized tank than a sports car.
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But:. . . . . . . .
I have been reading a lot about Microsoft these days, seeing where they went WRONG, and also what they are currently doing. My current gut feeling is this:
Microsoft will slowly loose the home desktop war. It will take time and they will never go away, but they will loose the MS – ONLY position.
But Microsoft is into Many many things. And a lot of them do work, usually for business. Could they work better? Yes, but they work and they are in many many places. Business is even slower to change than home people and they ususally have IT people who do the dirty work, not them.
Its just my HO.
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N.
As a former NeXT user, when Apple bought NeXT, I knew what the future of Apple would probably — if only roughly — be like. No, I did not see the iPod, but I knew Steve would pull off something great. Jobs’ wilderness days added wisdom to his undeniable brilliance. I hate sounding like a suck up, but this guy is really sharp.
MW: could, as in “I could have made a bundle in AAPL if I only — oh wait, yippie, I did.”
This is all I have to say:
http://www.macobserver.com/appledeathknell/index.shtml
All those analysts were actually correct. Apple did die. They got taken over by NeXT. Without NeXT, Apple would not be here now.
Yeesh, Pogue wrote just about the same article using the same line up of quotes for MacWorld.com in April 2000.
I thought the following quote from the article was interesting…
I lost a lot of faith in the media during those dark days. In fact, I started working on this column back then. “If Apple ever comes back,” I vowed through clenched teeth, “I’m going to come back to haunt these guys. I’m going dig up and reprint every one of their doomy predictions so readers will never again take these fortune crackers seriously.”
Apple did come back, so here I am. If you’re a Mac fan, forgive this unpleasant flashback to a nightmarish time. It’s for a good cause.
Life is good…..
NewType,
That would be a great idea. I was wondering about how the likes of Enderle predicted Apple’s future back then. Of course, Enderle being the shrewd person he is, probably wrote obscure articles to hedge his bets and cover both scenarios at once.
More to the point, by the time Longhorn ships, Apple likely will have discontinued active computer OS development, anyway, so that the company can concentrate on the consumer-electronics market.
– Paul Thurrott, WinInfo Short Takes, republished by ITnews Australia on or around May 20, 2004.
Did he get this wrong? Maybe what he meant to write was “by the time Longhorn ships, computers will have operating systems that are self-evolving and we’ll all be flying around in rocket cars…
What a maroon!
We have to give Enderle half credit — back in March of 2005 he predicted that Apple would either go to a new processor or get out of the PC business.
Apple did go to a new processor — and it revitalized the brand and the company.
Just goes to show, even a broken clock is right twice a day…
If Apple continues to grow it’s marketshare by 24% in the US, here’s what it will look like over 6 years (starting with roughly 5% US market share):
5 now
6.2 2007
7.6 2008
9.5 2009
11.8 2010
14.6 2011
It could grow faster or slower.. for example 20% market share in 6 years is not impossible if they grow faster than 24% during part of that period.
Certainly anything much higher than 20% in 6 years would be very difficult to believe or achieve, as such rapid growth is hard to sustain.
As I’ve said before, Mossberg is OK, POQUE is the real Mac champion.