Analyst: current iPod sales tracking below quarterly estimate

Apple Store“In a research note released to clients on Tuesday, PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster said his analysis of NPD data from the month of July — the first month in Apple’s September quarter — suggests iPod sales of around 8.0 million for the quarter,” Katie Marsal reports for AppleInsider.

Marsal reports, “Munster had modeled Apple to sell 8.6 million iPods in the September quarter, which he says the company can still achieve if it ships a new or updated iPod nano by the end of September. ‘While our iPod NPD extrapolation analysis suggests that iPod shipments through the month of July are tracking slightly below plan, we continue to believe that Apple will ship new/updated iPods (likely updated nano) in September,’ Munster wrote. ‘Assuming Apple does ship new iPods in September and depending on the timing of shipment within the month, we believe it is still possible that our 8.6m unit estimate for the quarter can be achieved.'”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Aaron” for the heads up.]
It’s an infinite loop: analysts express their “concerns” that Apple won’t hit said analysts’ – not Apple’s – iPod unit sales estimates only to be “surprised” when Apple exceeds all reasonable estimates.

Note:
• Apple sold 6,451,000 iPods during the same quarter last year (fiscal Q4 2005).
• Apple sold 2,016,000 iPods during the same quarter 2004.
• Apple sold 336,000 iPods during the same quarter 2003.

14 Comments

  1. If Apple ship a new iPod I reckon they’ll sell way more than 8.6m but still. Whilst I’m sure apple would love continued massive growth (as would any company), it can’t continue forever. I dislike the way our society has fashioned itself so that massive growth is what is deemed as being the expected norm and anything less is a massive disappointment.

  2. Well I estimate that Apple will sell 20 trillion units by next week. If they don;t I am taking them off my buy list.

    These “unrealisitc” M$ induced estimates are just another big “So What?”

    Everybody keeps doing estimates based on iPods being another Pet rock and the producct has to keep proving itself. So here is some news to the business experts:

    The iPod IS an established product. M$ is not gonna ba able to compete against it because their house is not in order. And maybe in 5 more years you guys will be “proven right” when Apple discontinues the iPod for a supperior product.

  3. All I can say is — “Idiot analysist!!”

    They only care if a company does what they think it should do, when they think it should do it, how they think the company should do it.

    If they are so smart, why aren’t they the CEO of a leading company.

    Apple, if you are listening (and you really should not be. LOL ) “Take you time. Do it right. Make Millions, and keep us as insanely happy (at least as happy as we will allow ourselves to be.) ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    PS, Everytime my PC locks up or gets stupid, I just thank Steve that I do “MY” work on an iBook. (10.2.8 at that). Life is too short to not work smarter. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    N.

    PS, hey, it could be worse. I could have lost my $300 iPod down the toilet of an international flight. LOL

  4. Thanks MDN for the sales figures from previous years, it certainly put things in perspective.

    If Apple do manage to sell 8.5M pods this quarter that would still equate to a 30 % increase year on year. Considering that last year included release of the nano and the pod video, selling 30 % more is very impressive.

    Hardest to beat will be the Xmas quarter if no new models are released. Selling 14 M or more of the current offerings could be tricky.

  5. To add to MDN´s

    “Note:
    • Apple sold 6,451,000 iPods during the same quarter last year (fiscal Q4 2005).
    • Apple sold 2,016,000 iPods during the same quarter 2004.
    • Apple sold 336,000 iPods during the same quarter 2003.”

    Apple sold 0 iPods during the same quarter 2000.

    MDN, if Apple was to keep up with the 2004 – 2005 trend then Q4 2006 sales should be around 18,000,000.

    —————-
    The MP3 market is maturing quickly – who in the market does not own one?

  6. Agreed the MP3 market is maturing. But I disagree that the Q4 2006 figures should be 18M.

    Apple “only” sold 6.5M last year Q4 with a 300% increase from the previous year. Before that they sold 2M for a 900% increase. Therefore the Q4 2005 figure should have been 18M.

    Obviously that never happens in real sales for the long term. That why bringing out new models will encourage current owners to upgrade as well as get new customers.

  7. It is not surprising that iPod sales might slow down when the big speculation throughout June and July was that Steve would introduce the next generation of iPods at WWDC. Of course people in the know would sit on their wallets.

  8. RePlay – Your request is of no interest to iPod sales, other than it makes feel smug.

    I would be more interested to see the sales curve of the Sony Walkman franchise and how much it increased each year before maturing.
    As someone has said before the iPod has market limitations because of the high requirements to own one and use iTunes. (Plus how many Windows owners don´t buy one because they think it only works on an Apple computer?) Which reminds me, I would like to see a break out of Windows iPod owners vs. Apple iPod owners. What percent of iPods are purchased by Windows-only computer owners?

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