“According to a report entitled ‘New iPods Will Spur 2H06 Recovery in NAND Flash’ from research consultancy Gartner, strong growth in the portable media player market is expected in 2006, as the market is forecast to reach 187.7 million units, up from 134.5 million units in 2005,” Gene J. Koprowski reports for TechNewsWorld.
Koprowski reports, “The demand for portable media players such as Apple’s iPod, is the primary driver of sales of NAND flash memory. NAND flash-based players accounted for 80 percent of the market in 2005. So-called hard disk drive (HDD)-based portable music players make up the remaining 20 percent of the market. ‘We expect Apple to introduce a new, high-end NAND flash-based iPod by the fourth quarter of 2006, and this player will most likely have 10GB to 12GB of storage capacity,’ said Jon Erensen, a research analyst for Gartner. ‘The impact of an iPod with this storage capacity will have significant implications for the NAND flash market.'”
“Last fall, Apple introduced the 4 GB iPod nano priced at US$249 and the 1 GB iPod shuffle in January 2005 at $149. At the time, these NAND flash-based players represented the most aggressive pricing found in the portable media player market,” Koprowski reports. “‘Both of these introductions had a significant impact on the market, with competing vendors reacting by lowering prices and increasing capacities,’ said Erensen. ‘Apple accelerated the highest available capacity [and] average capacity, and lowered the cost per MB for NAND flash players with the shuffle and the nano. We anticipate a similar course of events in the second half of 2006.'”
“Though demand has not dropped for flash memories, prices have. The present environment for NAND flash-based players experienced a decline in the first quarter of 2006, falling by 25 percent on average. Pricing was soft in the second quarter, but firmed up in the second half of the year,” Koprowski reports.
“Erensen forecasts that a 16GB memory chip will be available in the third quarter for about $30, down from its current price of about $35. Apple’s procurement power and investment totals are substation, so it is conceivable that it could get pricing for a device at $25 or even $20, he added,” Koprowski reports. “This pricing would enable capacities of 12 GB, leaving enough room for the remaining component and manufacturing costs as well as Apple’s margin, while still reaching a coveted $250 price point.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Pieter” for the heads up.]
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Let the onslaught of flash on hard drives begin…
It will be entertaining to watch!
i would have thought that 12gb of flash would have been really expensive, isnt the samsung 30gb flash hard drive like $1500 ? 12gb nano would be awesome though, bring it on, wireless integrated voip?
another analyst stating the obvious.
do these guys actually get paid?!
This is obvious. The potential configuation of the flash is 32 gigs as reported in the last few months. I wish someone would pay me to suggest that apple would be coming out with a higher capacity nano.
On the bright side, it’s nice to see the Gigabite gap fill in. 4 gigs for $250 or 30 + Vid for $300 . . . . uh hello!
andy,
Economy of scale: Reduction in cost per unit resulting from increased production, realized through operational efficiencies. Economies of scale can be accomplished because as production increases, the cost of producing each additional unit falls.
Fred Mertz, i realise this but these hard drives have only just come out, and samsung are the ones making the flash :s oh well, cheaper is better so bring it on!!! will be nice to have 10+ gb again after coming down to 4 for my nano
I want my full face-screen, 320*570 pixel movie-capable, 32 GB flash iPod!!!11!!!!!!!1!!!!1111
Where’s the geosynchronator feature? And the frangipan? Where’s the frangipan?
Apple’s procurement power and investment totals are substation,
Is that last word supposed to be substantial or is there some new meaning of substation that I don’t know?
I’m reall surprised at how cheap NAND has become. It’s hard to beleive that they expect just $20-25 of the nano’s $250 pice to be used on memory. If that’s the case I don’t see why the entire line won’t go flash soon. How much is apple paying for 60gig harddrives? A hundred dollars will buy you 64gigs of flash and unless there is some reason 4 chips can’t be used together like I imagine they can it seems reasonable to put it in the regular iPod. I bet 4 NAND chips are smaller than the 1.5 inch HDs they are using now.
Flash-based MacBook Thin, anyone?
Jay,
It’s 16 gigabits for $20-$25. (MDN wasn’t clear.) So you need 6 of these chips for a 12 Gigabyte player (8 bits to a byte), at a cost of $120-150. Adding in the rest of the components and Apple’s margins allow such a capacity to be priced at $249.
You’re right about “substation” though. No idea what they mean.
Wow. I really hope this speculation is true.
I love my nano, but would love more space and more battery power.
I’ll buy a 12gig Nano in the current form in a heartbeat. And as a bonus, bump the battery life to 25-30 hours…
ooh 12GB. Eat that for innovation everyone.