Big surprise: Enderle was wrong about Apple’s holiday quarter Mac sales

On Monday, August 01, 2005, self-described “Principal Analyst” Rob Enderle of the one-man Enderle Group (unless you count Rob’s wife, which obviously he does, hence his usage of the word “Group” in the title of his tax write-off) wrote an article for TechNewsWorld in which he stated:

“As demand for a new product goes up, demand for existing products goes down, which is part of the risk Apple took when pre-announcing the move to x86. Recent surveys indicate demand for Apple’s existing products is dropping like a rock as a result.”

One week later, on Monday, August 8, 2005, Enderle tacked the following onto some tripe about Windows Longhorn that he wrote for TechNewsWorld:

“One other thing: Several folks questioned my comment that Apple demand was dropping like a rock and referred to past sales performance to refute this. Demand is measured by surveys of buying intent and I rely on surveys done for the financial firms who follow Apple. Unfortunately I don’t have the rights to share the results. But the financial reports you have seen are based on sales before Apple announced the Intel move — and the impact of that development won’t show up in the financial reports until after this quarter ends. If the studies are to be believed, the fourth quarter, in particular, should be ugly for Apple.”

Now to be fair – even though fairness should be out of bounds for this one – Enderle did tack on one weak attempt at an ass-saver with:
“Granted, forward-looking studies are often unreliable, but the study I’m now using did accurately predict that last quarter would be very strong.”

Judgement Day

We had originally stated that it sounded to us like Enderle was referring not to Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter (Q4 05) which ended October 11, 2005, but the fourth calendar quarter of 2005 (Oct. – Dec., 2005). For the record, Apple shipped 1,236,000 Macintosh units in Apple’s Q4 05 ended October 11, 2005, following up strongly on the 1,182,000 Macs shipped in Apple’s Q3 05, and showing 48 percent growth in Mac unit shipments year over year. Yesterday, Apple released their earnings report that showed the company shipped 1,254,000 Macintosh computers during the quarter, representing 20 percent growth in Mac sales year-over-year and record revenue and profits of $5.75 billion and $565 million respectively.

So, in the end, Enderle and the studies he used were wholly inaccurate. Fourth quarter, now matter how you look at it (Apple’s Q4 2005 or Q1 2006), was certainly not “ugly” for Apple and Mac demand did not drop “like a rock,” it rose.

Side note: Rob “Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS” Enderle seems overly concerned with earthquakes and things dropping like rocks. Any bets that he got hit on the head really hard by falling objects at least once in his life?

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Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple reports Q1 2006 earnings results: record revenue and earnings – January 18, 2006
Enderle: ‘Some people got really excited by the new iPod, but a growing number of people did not’ – October 19, 2005
Apple Q4 05 earnings report: best quarter & best year in company history – October 11, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: ‘Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS’ – September 28, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle incorrectly compares Apple’s Mac OS to iPod licensing – September 01, 2005
Enderle: ‘Surveys indicate demand for Apple’s products is dropping like a rock’ due to Intel switch – August 01, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: ‘fourth quarter should be ugly for Apple’ – August 09, 2005
Enderle: ‘iPod Halo Effect is just a myth, same thing as having Paris Hilton visit Apple stores’ – May 02, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: Apple’s Mac OS X Tiger’s main features ‘borrow heavily from Longhorn’ – May 02, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: ‘This year will be more difficult for Apple Computer’ and iMacs in earthquakes – January 24, 2005

35 Comments

  1. I’ll say it again. HOW DOES THIS GUY KEEP HIS JOB?!?!?!

    He is ALWAYS wrong. It’s OK to be wrong when making predictions, BUT nearly all of his articles about Apple and the Macintosh platform contain serious factual errors.

    What a blow-hard buffoon.

  2. Enderle and the “Studies” he used? What studies?

    He must have looked into his bowl of alpha bits and the words Apple and Osborne seemed to float together. There is an article in there, he thought.

  3. Comical Rob E. strikes again! Apparently his clients never check to see if his predictions come true, otherwise he and his wife would be unemployed. None of us are surprised by this, but that’s because we remember that he made statements such as “iMacs are unsafe because they could fall over in a earthquake and the glass in the screen might break”, and “Microsoft wrote the original Mac OS, and they’ve helped Apple write OS X.”

    On an off note, MDN, why does your “Rope the Bull” ad keep launching a new tab while I’m typing? It’s happened three times so far today and getting really annoying.

  4. Enderle doesn’t want to be right. The absolute fastest way to establish a site is to say something negativew about Apple/Macintosh. The legends of Mac faithful can’t resist bashing someone that doesn’t like their baby.

    Enderle got the hits to his site he wanted, and is able to raise more advertising dollars as a result.

    As an analyst, Enderle is a whore, more interested in promoting his site, than his service. People looking for insightful analysis won’t go near him. He is just too consistently wrong.

  5. The iPod “halo” is doing a good job. Even Apple’s CFO acknowledged a “pause” in Mac sales leading up to Macworld and anticipation of new Intel Macs. From a logical standpoint, Enderle’s probably right (there’s a bad taste growing in my mouth just saying that, as if I were chewing on a handful of gummy bears and someone told me they were really just grape flavored mountain oysters) that sales of PPC Macs would soften while Apple transitions to Intel Macs. That part makes sense, and we’ve probably seen some of that already. Apple knows this, too, so they’re pushing fast and hard to get more Intel Macs in the pipeline and bring out other models. I think Apple is gutsy to go with their first Intel Macs in two of their better selling models. Opting for Intel Core Duo to start the line up bodes well for the future. Look for that “quad” CPU PowerMac replacement down the road. Woo hoo.

    Tera Patricks
    Mac360

  6. Why folks would pay attention or give serious consideration to anything Enderle has to say at all just escapes me. I can’t imagine what his client list must look like (if he has one), but I’d venture to guess that they simply like to throw money away.

    So, here’s my public service announcement. For all of you who are interested in hiring Rob Enderle (or his wife) as a consultant on anything, save yourself the time you would otherwise spend making an appointment, traveling to meet him/her, and actually consulting with them – and do this instead: take a pile of money and throw it in the trash.

    Doing that is merely a metaphor for meeting with this con-artist in the first place.

  7. If this doesn’t clearly prove once and for all that he is a clueless dolt, I don’t know what else does. Why ANYONE listens to anything he has to say about the industry is truly a mystery.

  8. Devil’s Advocate:

    Maybe he isn’t in much danger of losing his “job” if his actual job is to spread FUD. Perhaps his job is quite lucrative.

    I pledge to only refer to him as the “Fudmeister” ™ and his “group” as the “Fudmeister Group, LLC”

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