“Apple will likely proclaim the past week’s Macworld expo a success… but deep questions linger as to the future of its computer business,” Red Herring reports. “Reaction from the Mac faithful to the first of Apple’s Intel-powered machines couldn’t have been more positive the day CEO and founder Steve Jobs unveiled them, despite worries that Apple was giving up its unique identity by switching from IBM’s PowerPC chips.”
“But it’s unclear if the initial love shown Apple’s new laptop, called MacBook Pro, and upgraded desktop, will be enough to translate into increased revenue and market share for the Cupertino, California-based company’s computer business,” Red Herring reports. “Apple’s market share is tiny—just 4.2 percent of the personal computing market, according to Gartner. Its bread and butter the past couple of years has been the iPod, but with the portable player’s somewhat low-key presence at the conference, even Apple seems to realize that it must shift emphasis back to computers to survive. It won’t be easy, experts said. ‘Macintosh is not doing very well,’ said Caris & Company analyst Mark Stahlman. ‘Sales of Macs in December were a disappointing 1.2 million. … Expectations were well north of 1.5 million—1.7 million would have been good.’”
“The machines introduced at Macworld may not have what it takes to lift Apple’s doldrums. Though Mr. Jobs touted them as between two and five times faster than current Macs, using Intel’s low-power Core Duo chip, Mr. Stahlman said those speeds aren’t actual measures of performance,” Red Herring reports.
Full article here.
Is it really so hard to realize that the closer to the Intel transition Apple got, the more people waited for the new machines? And it was 1.25 million Macs sold to be correct (according to Apple’s 8-K filed on Jan. 10, 2006); those extra 50,000 machines made last quarter the best for Macintosh ever: last quarter, ended September 05: Apple shipped 1.236 million Macs; the quarter ended June 05: 1.182 million Macs; the quarter ended March 05: 1.07 million Macs; the quarter ended December 04: 1.046 million Macs; and the quarter ended September 04: 836,000 Macs. That’s a pretty clear growth trend and accomplished in the face of a looming major processor transition, no less. Expectations for higher Mac sales were just not realistic. As the Intel transition progresses, any lingering “deep questions” about Apple’s Mac business will evaporate because Apple has started to take orders for and ship the kinds of Macs for which many were waiting.
For more about Caris & Company analyst Mark Stahlman, and an insight into his inability to predict how Apple is doing with their business, please see the related article link below. It contains some of Stahlman’s advice that would have been rather costly to investors if they had actually followed it. Clearly, Mark Stahlman is the one who’s not doing very well.
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Related MacDailyNews article:
Caris & Co analyst downgrades Apple, says ‘current enthusiasm might have overrun the realities’ – April 11, 2005
Apple stock on the up and up – Sell! Sell! Sell! – If I hear one more idiot try to tell everyone to sell their AAPL holdings, I swear I’m going to personally go kick their conniving “try to drive stock price down, so they can pick up shares on the cheap” arses.
MDN —
Know what would be cool? Create a table listing analysts down one side and then their predictions vs. outcomes, and a score for each analyst.
I’d love to see how that turned out.
word to that tom! – then we would know who to trust and who is full of BS.
No, my incredulous and terse, little friend. (6 seconds).
To be fair, I have been thinking about personal computing for about 15 years, which may be more than twice your age and one-half your IQ.
It’s unclear if the initial love shown Apple’s new laptop, called MacBook Pro, and upgraded desktop, will be enough to translate into increased revenue and market share for Apple’s computer business to Red Herring because they need to put down the bong and go outside for some fresh air.
Apple’s marketshare is going to increase dramatically over the next two years and that’s a fact.
I gotta know, does anyone actually read Odyssey67’s long-winded tripe? It’s one thing to be an asshat, it’s another to spend 5+ paragraphs doing it. This is a message board. “Message”, not “essay”. One wonders how he finds the time to do anything else.
Lard Robin:
You really shouldn’t have to be a impertinent and pretentious ass because your brain only has the capacity to comprehend small words in short sentenced within tiny paragraphs.
Lord Robin:
I think that only you should be allowed to post at MDN. Your brilliant analyses, insightful comments, succinct prose, and witty banter are legend.
Each day hundreds, if not thousands, wait, trembling with anticipation, for, you, Lord Robin, to bestow your words of profundity and fill their dull little lives with purpose and meaning.
Apple needs to start ADVERTISING the Mac!
—
Guess you missed the whole ‘dull tasks’ joke..
Twit
@ Professor >
The 1.25 million figure is confirmed in the keynote at 1:01.50: quarters 1-3 all tie up with Q1-3 CY2005, so the 1.25 M in Q4 is actually Q4/CY2005 as opposed to FY2005.
That said, trends and equations tend to suggest that Apple have actually shifted more than 14M iPods – possibly as many as 14.5M, but more likely to be 14.1 – 14.25 million. Either that or they shifted a ridiculous amount of iTMS tracks and gift cards to get $5.7 billion.
@ Reality Check and others/fellow travellers >
For the four quarters preceding ending 25/09 or thereabouts, Apple realised $4.54 billion in revenue from iPod, yet realised $6.275 billion from CPU sales. Allowing for the fact that the holiday quarter is “gadget quarter”, that figure should now adjust to approximately $6.295 billion for CPUs and $6.130 billion for iPods.
So – in effect – Apple’s valuation is now based equally on the contributions of iPod and Macintosh to both revenue and profit, however there is an intangible sentiment that iPod is acting as mechanism for diffusing the Apple brand into a wider community, that further CE developments may accelerate that diffusion enhancing the much vaunted “halo effect” (Apple CPU unit shipments for CY2005 are some 35% above the figure for CY2004 – well above the average industry growth), and that Apple’s retail strategy is adding yet another layer of amplification to the “halo effect”.
It’s worth noting that Tuesday’s keynote contained NO SUBSTANTIVE PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS relating to the music division (iPod/iTunes/iTMS) and yet the value of the company climbed 12.3% between Tuesday AM and Friday PM (in Eastern Time).
Why was that?
This no-name analyst was the only one expecting 1.5 to 1.7M computers being sold. What a load of tripe.
I can’t remember a single product that I purchased solely because I saw a TV ad.
I doubt that TV ads have EVER influenced my purchase of anything.
Please quit squawking the same tired tune. I stopped by the local Apple store today. The place was packed. 3pm on a Saturday.
What is advertising going to accomplish again?
Hey mike,
That ‘dull task’ ad doesn’t tell anyone WHY they should by a Mac.
Dumbass
About MDN’s take: this was not the best Mac quarter ever; the best ever was 1Q2000 or Christmas 1999 when Apple sold 1.377m Macs (700K iMacs). So this was the best since then.
In any case, Apple gave guidance back in October for revenue that was much less than the 5.7 billion in revenue for the quarter. Does anyone remember the exact figure from the October conference call? Apple probably got the sales figure close to right on Macs but way underestimated iPod and music sales.
As I look at this quarter, I’m not sure that pent-up demand for the new iMacs or MacBooks, or the drive to 1 billion in iTMS music sales will provide enough of a revenue boost to offset a post-Christmas decline from the 14m iPods sold. Therefore, I expect another product release by mid-Feb. So for me, if Apple, which is very conservative, projects more than 2% q-o-q overall revenue growth in the conference call, then a product release is imminent.
Yes, now’s the time for a blanket TV campaign by Apple.
“The new iMac 17 & 20″ with intel inside, 2x faster than the last iMac” but don’t look at the Mac mini, it’s obsolete and will be replaced with a machine 2x as fast later this spring.
“The new MacBook Pro, 4 – 5x faster than a PowerBook” but only if you have $2,000 and want a 15″ screen. The 3 iBooks and other PowerBooks are obsolete and will be replaced this summer.
Yes, millions of dollars on TV ads to get people into Apple stores now, when only 30% of the product lines have been updated. And you think the new iMac iSight owners were disapointed when the iMac switched to Intel three months later?
Holiday season 2006 for Apple is going to be sick…with full Intel line-up in place, computers, especially laptops, will be flying off the shelf. I’m sure there will be new iPod goodness… they will be lined up out the door for that as well.
Switchers everywhere
Profits thru the roof
Stock thru the roof
Hey mike,
That ‘dull task’ ad doesn’t tell anyone WHY they should by a Mac.
—-
That’s not what advertising is for you clueless moron. People don’t buy $1500 Machines because of a cute ad.. the ad invites people to find out more..
Stop bitching about lack of advertising, because if Apple took advice from geeks like you they would have been out of business 15 years ago.
The stores are in place to grow Mac marketshare.. if you have to tattoo it on your forehead, i’ll help pay for it, so you’ll shut up with the same cheap advice that no one wants.
When has a product ever advertised its way into marketshare. (eg. Creative)Never.
Dork.
Dear Fracas Futile:
Rule No. 1: Any company not producing computer hardware or software with improved features and/or speed is chastised, ridiculed, and publicly disgraced.
Rule No 2: Improving one’s product enhances one’s bottom line and, ultimately, benefits the consumer.
Rule No. 3: Buying a personal computer and software is buying obsolescence, because of rules 1 and 2.
Dearest meatofmoose
Apple Rule #1: Sell simplicity and ease of use
Apple Rule #2: Sell customer satisfaction
Counter Your Rule No. 1: Don’t invite the masses to consider purchasing your product when you have to be an informed techie to make a buying decision. (Will it dual boot Windows? What’s an express card? What’s the battery life? What’s this PPC, Intel and Universal software thing all about?)
Counter Your Rule No. 2: Don’t invite the masses to consider purchasing your product when you’ll introduce new products 2 to 5x faster in the next few months. (Damn, I just bought this thing and they introduce a faster machine 3 weeks later?)
Counter Your Rule No. 3: Invite the masses (with lots of advertising) to consider purchasing your product when you have updated your consumer lines ensuring a simple buying decision and longterm (at least a year) customer satisfaction.
All I’m trying to say is if I was Apple, I’d wait until at least the Mac mini and iBook lines get refreshed before spending millions on TV ads to bring in the customers.
Analysis now is PREMATURE.. trying to measure the beast before its born is a waste of time. Apple will be revealing LOADS MORE PRODUCTS and ideas in the coming six months, so just be a little bit patient.
Advertising is a dead medium, thousands of businesses are spending billions & it isn’t working. Apple has better/smarter/cheaper ways of getting you to notice their products…
like say word of mouth….
believe me, it’s workin’ around here…
Dear fracas:
If you choose to be uninformed about the products that you purchase then you deserve exactly what you get.
If you choose to be impatient in making purchases, well, that is your problem.
Consider leasing if buying is too stressful for you.
You are not making a whole lotta sense otherwise.
Dearest meatofmoose
I…am…talking…about…massive…TV…promotion…to…bring…new…users…to…the…Mac…platform.
Makes…sense…to…wait…until…transition…is…well…underway…before…spending…millions…on…TV…advertisements.
Waiting…will…result…in…less…confusion…for…new…users.