BusinessWeek writer: Microsoft will eventually dominate online music which ‘may be the best outcome

“Imagine buying a CD at Best Buy only to discover that it won’t work on the CD player you bought at Circuit City. Absurd as it sounds, this sort of situation is the rule rather than the exception in the world of legally downloaded music. This maze of incompatible standards is a threat to online services such as Apple Computer’s iTunes Music Store,” Stephen H. Wildstrom writes for BusinessWeek.

“The situation is both baffling and infuriating. My iPod can play all the MP3s I rip from CDs or pull from KaZaA (if I used it), but when it comes to legal downloads, it works only with the iTunes store. The Roku SoundBridge that connects my stereo to my computer’s stash of digital music can play everything in my iTunes library that I digitized myself — MP3s and the like — but not iTunes Music Store purchases. Similarly, other players handle only music bought from a specific service,” Wildstrom writes.

“Microsoft holds the high cards in this game. Much as I hate to see the colossus of Redmond end up dominating yet another market, I believe that is going to happen, and given the current state of affairs, it may be the best outcome for consumers,” Wildstrom writes. “In the end, what consumers care about is getting the music… they want and having it play without hassles on the device of their choice. Microsoft’s big-tent approach offers a way out of this morass for everyone, except perhaps Apple.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Reality check time: over 90 percent of the players in actual people’s hands today are iPods. The iTunes Music Store works on both Mac and Windows and holds over 70 percent of the online music download market. Songs that aren’t available via iTMS can be purchased on CDs and ripped to your PC or Mac iTunes and then transferred to your iPod. Why would people use the Microsoft WMA “solution” when over 90 percent of them can’t use it on their player of choice, Apple’s iPod?

“The situation is both baffling and infuriating.” Yeah, to Microsoft perhaps, not to consumers. While Wildstrom’s theories might look vaguely plausible on first glance, but they just don’t stand up to the reality that Apple is currently moving over one million iPods into consumers’ hands every 30 days. That’s over 1,000,000 fewer people shackled to Microsoft with every month that rolls by. Microsoft had better hurry up with this domination before they run out of potential customers.

Wildstrom wrote, “In the end, what consumers care about is getting the music… they want and having it play without hassles on the device of their choice.” They already have that, they’ve overwhelmingly chosen iPod and they can get the music they want with the most seamless choices available today – Apple’s iTunes Music Store or a CD ripped to iTunes. If Apple keeps executing as they have with iPod + iTunes, Microsoft has already lost; some people just can’t seem to be able to wrap their minds around that reality, yet. Look at it this way: which cards in this game is Microsoft really holding today? Tens of affiliated digital music players that almost nobody is buying and tens of online stores that sell files that don’t work with the player almost everybody is buying. Doesn’t look like a winning hand to us.

52 Comments

  1. These writers are idiots.

    The only valid point to be made is Apple has everything to lose and MS has everything to gain.

    It remains to be seen if Apple is playing it’s cards right. I personally think they are.

  2. If the music industry had not demanded DRM, wouldn’t Apple have used non protected MP3s or AACs? I don’t think Apple would lose much by opening up their online music business, but for now, there isn’t much reason to do so. The drama continues…

  3. Apple should license FairPlay and make it the world standard. What if, in the future, a different service offers a product or band or price that is not available via iTunes? It won’t work on your iPod. If a consumer wants to choose to buy a song or file through a competitor they can’t use it on their iPod. That seems like a communist verses free approach. We know what is best for you and that is all we will allow you to have.

    If you love something set it free – and it will come back (or something like that)

  4. I think MDN should specify that the 90% figure relates to HDD-based players. Not all types.

    Anyway, this writer sounds kinda like a relation to Thurrott than anything else.

    BTW: What ever happened to Enderle? He hasn’t ben writing nonsense like he used to. Or did I just miss all of it?

  5. @ mac dood.
    yeah you�re right, but you�re not fscked like german customers:
    Virtually all CDs you can buy here in germany are copyprotected. – A lot of those copyprotection schemes lead to either only being able to import music at 32kb or not to being able to play (and import) them at all on a Mac. (Being nice as the recording industry is in germany, they at least tell you on the back of the cover).
    That�s why I�m “stealing” the music I don�t find at the iTMS and which is not available on non-copyprotected CDs. :((

  6. let’s see if this really makes sense. Would it make anymore sense to say that Apple with their small OS share be charged with bringing order to the windows world because it would be best for the consumer.

    On second thought, that does make sense at least on the Apple taking over Windows.

  7. reality check… MS can broker iTunes killing deals with Bill Gates’ pocket change.

    reality check… I remember when the Apple II had 90% of the business PC market.

  8. “MS can broker iTunes killing deals with Bill Gates’ pocket change. “

    ahem..if you can back that up with anything not so closely resembling frail conjecture, you can have a job at Microsoft..

    “I remember when the Apple II had 90% of the business PC market.”

    Hmm.. back when Apple was interested in the business market?

  9. Sometimes when a writer can’t think of anything to write about, they make something up. Everyone can have an off-day. He was probably hung-over and some Microsoftie caught his ear between coffee and the toilet. Don’t be too tough on the poor guy. And please don’t shout! Ow.

  10. AppleWorks X

    “It’s like Microsoft Office for the rest of your iLife.

    Come on Steve, get an Office Killer released, or at least hint you are planning to ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  11. “……@ mac dood.
    yeah you�re right, but you�re not fscked like german customers:
    Virtually all CDs you can buy here in germany are copyprotected……”

    matt…

    Just curious…. Awhile back, I remember reading an article explaining that the certain copy-protected music CDs could be defeated by using a black felt -tipped marker… I wonder if this would work for the CDs you have to deal with ?

    Also… I have never run into a music CD I couldnt rip on my OS 9 machine… even those with some sort of a copy protection scheme … but then again, the CDs in your country might be a horse of a different color ..

  12. Let’s see:

    Critics love the iPod. Consumers agree.

    Critics love iTMS. Consumers agree.

    What’s the problem? Here’s the thing. When people buy music, they buy the format which will work best for the player the have. Most people who have a DMP have an iPod. Therefore they buy from iTMS. I don’t see consumers complaining about iTMS. They have the best set up, and the biggest selection.

    Two analogies:

    1. Your favorite listening device is a CD player. You have two music stores in your neighborhood, right next to each other. One sells only CDs and one sells only cassettes. Which will you go to?

    2. You have two music stores in your neighborhood, both right next to each other. They both stock all formats of music and they have a similar selection, however, store A is clean, well kept, and you can always find exactly what you want, plus there are helpful employees who make great suggestions on other things you may like. Store B is always a mess. Nothing is organized and you really have to dig to find anything. And, the salespeople act like you’re a nuisance when you ask for help. Where would you rather shop?

    I don’t recall a single review of online stores ever saying the experience was better than Apple’s. The only reason to buy at another store would be if you were dumb enough to buy a DMP that was not an iPod.

  13. “Sounds to me as if this ‘Roku SoundBridge’ gadget is Mr. Wildstrom’s real problem.”

    True. However…

    Roku’s Soundbridge gets good reviews as a wireless music to home stereo streamer, even in Mac magazines. It seems to be a good unit with the exception that it can not stream iTunes AAC files. It has good looks, display advantages, and a REMOTE control.

    Sure, the author would have fewer problems if he were using an Airport Express, but the ball’s in Apple’s court to provide a display and, above all, the REMOTE control that home users want in all AV components. (When was the last time you bought a TV without a remote?) Even an iPod plugged directly into a stereo receiver doesn’t have a remote control that will work from your living room sofa, much less from another room.

    Of course, the Airport Express can do things the Roku unit can not do and it’s about 1/2 the price. However, as part of a home theater/stereo system, the “What’s playing” display and the remote control are essential. That explains the author’s choice and frustration.

    It’s time for Apple to provide with the “whole widget”, not just to control it.

  14. Yeah, right. As soon as Longhorn becomes commercially available, look out, world.

    I would think that most people have waited 10 years too long for Longhorn and are not entirely willing to wait any longer.

    Why do I have the impression that Microsoft’s most significant offerings are rumors and promises versus products?

  15. The most annoying part is that there have been many instances of copy-protected CDs not playing in standard players. His example is foolish because it is true, not false as he asserts.

  16. After much thinking, I am glad that FairPlay hasn’t been licensed out. If it had, it would be one step closer to being embedded in every CD sold. At least for now, CD’s are still ‘open’.

  17. As long as digital music players do not become a commodity item like portable cassette players and portable cd players became, then Apple has nothing to worry about. The day that flash memory becomes supercheap and at least 5GB of storage is the day Apple’s iPod will lose share.

  18. Just PIR (backwards for rip) to a CD (with iTunes, it’s even easy on Windows) and it will play everywhere!
    You should do that for backup anyway.

    Back-up back-up back-up and be happy, happy, happy!

  19. Sorry, MDN, the only way to win a war is to fight it. You don’t win by covering your ears and singing Mary Had a Little Lamb, no matter your current market share.

    Apple’s failure to license Fairplay to other companies for incorporation in *players* is perfectly logical. However, Apple’s reluctance to license Fairplay to peripheral manufacturers is idiotic–why would you NOT want your format to be the center of third party development, which Fairplay would be if Apple aggresively licensed it? Apple’s reluctance to license Fairplay to other online music retailers is also at best questionable–however, what really takes the cake for insanity is Apple’s failure to license Fairplay to cd manufacturers. If you bought a CD and it included Fairplay-protected AAC’s of all the tracks on the CD, that would be great for the consumer AND for Apple.

  20. Btw, there were many stories about Apple licensing Fairplay to Macrovision for incorporation in CDs back in August, with Q4 release stated. Well, we’re well into Q4–any updates? You’d think CDs for xmas-time release would already be printing or printed now.

  21. ****TIME FOR THE MOST VALID POINT ON MSFT’S ONLINE MUSIC****

    Why is Windows so popular? Because they were the first to license their OS.

    Why have they not lost marketshare? Because they kept that momentum.

    Now apply the following to Apple’s success with iTMS. They are the first major release, largest resource of artists (which in turn could be compared to Windows software supply). Apple has such a huge marketshare that Microsoft will be spending decades to catch up, just as Apple has in the OS wars. But, Microsoft doesn’t have the “umph” to be cool, successful, or competitive without having their foot in the door first; which they didn’t.

    My last outburst on the matter. Viva la revolution!

  22. Frankly, if all the online music store offered losslessly compressed or uncompressed music as an option, we wouldn’t have a problem (and better sound qualify for those who listen to music with halfway decent system). If the RIAA wasn’t so absurd with DRM, we’d have more options.

    But AAC is a true standard. WMA isn’t. So who really is causing an issue here? The DRM enforcers. Not the format supporters.

  23. Until your article mentioned a problem I didn’t know there was a problem. My children seem to like their iPods and have no problem obtaining music from iTunes. If they can’t get the music from iTunes they obtain it in mp3 format by other means. It seems that the two standards AAC and mp3 are plenty. Anyway I don’t think it really matters too much because like CDs distribution is changing rapidly with the advent of these small devices. I haven’t bought a CD recently and my children don’t use a CD player. CDs are for back-up. I read the article but it is a stretch to say… the problem is ‘incompatibilities’ between some management formats(?) since I understand that most of the legal catalogs are all the same. I am sure differences will ‘self correct’ any discrepancies since the kids will get their music someway.

    I don’t know what a Roku SoundBridge is, but my children just plug their iPods directly into their small stereos via the line out cord. I understand that I can broadcast to a stereo with what Apple calls an Airport Express, maybe this is similar to the SoundBridge(?), however, the kids don’t really care since they have their music on their pod already.

    If most of the latest music is made available directly to the pod via some other, simpler(?) mechanism rather than a computer I believe the kids will go for it. Direct to ‘pod downloading is the future and an RF ‘pod is only a matter of time with the music distributors adopting some sort of distribution model to provide a direct conduit to the iPod.

    For this year, if a few more iPods are sold it’s a moot point concerning the current DRM models… the game is pretty much up for MS and Real.

  24. Here is my e-mail to the author:
    “Music purchased from the iTunes Music Store (iTMS) will work on any modern PC or Macintosh that is equipped with the FREE iTunes software Apple provides. Hewlett Packard/Compaq is now distributing all of it’s consumer PCs with iTunes and QuickTime (the media engine behind iTunes) and Media Center PCs with additional software to allow integration of iTunes content and the Windows Media Center functions.

    Apple is not the “bad guy” in this story. Micro$oftopoly currently distributes a version of Windows Media Player for Macintosh that does not allow Macintosh users this same functionality. This is not a repeat of the mid-to-late 1980’s when Steve Jobs was not at Apple. Apple will license FairPlay DRM when the time is right and Steve Jobs has not yet seen that time as being right now.

    Apple is in the process of building up a market that it largely created (legal music downloading) through a number of efforts.
    1- Mac & Windows versions of the iTunes software.
    2- The iPod, iPod mini, and HP iPod.
    3- Motorola smartphones that will be able to play AAC/FairPlay content.
    4-BMW iPod integration
    5-Aftermarket Car Stereo Manufacturer iPod integration.

    At current, Apple holds greater than a 90% market share (with HP iPod included) of disc based portable music players and almost a 60% market share when flash-memory players are counted. The market has obviously shown a strong preference for the iPod regardless of what Desktop OS the consumer uses. The iPod will drive iTMS sales just as PC sales drive the purchase of Windows PC software.

    Microsoft sees this as a roadblock to their plans for their proprietary Janus DRM system. M$ wants to attach Janus DRM to all forms of media and sit back and get rich off of the royalties. The success of FairPlay DRM puts a huge dent into their plans for future profit. The issue is DRM- not music. The current battlefield is music, but the War is over DRM. FairPlay is available to all Mac OS X & Windows 2000/XP users while Janus is Micoro$oftopoly only. The problem is a familiar one: Micro$oft trying to leverage it’s near monopoly in Desktop OS’s to kill off a competitor in the marketplace. Open your eyes.”

  25. “over 90 percent of the players in actual people’s hands today are iPods”

    Refresh my memory: Is that 90% of Hard Drive players or 90% of ALL players? Becuase there’s a BIG difference…

  26. Someone tell me how Microsoft can be the best choice for consumers????

    Since when has Microsoft been PRO consumer when their totally iresponsible bullshit CEO says in a press statement that “All Ipod owners are thieves”.

    At the end of the day if a company gives consumers what they want, at a price they can afford then consumers will buy it!

    Just so happens Apple is the ONLY IT/software company in business today that understands this very basic rule of business.

    If Microsoft wasn’t so busy concentrating on theying to block innovation, rip-off it’s customers and totally screw up the worlds reliance on computers maybe they would learn this rule!!

    …MAYBE NOT!

    Whatever happens im with APPLE all the way – I have been a windows user for many years and I have no intention of going back to that crap AND my kids are going to learn and be educated on Macs!!

  27. iPod owns 65% of all music players market. And over 90% of the high capacity music player market. iTMS owns 70% of the legal download music market.

    Currently, owners of the low capacity (aka low cost or flash-based) music players can only buy from iTMS’s competitors.

    Even though Apple is the market leader in both the music players and legal download markets now but I am not certain about the future. Usually, the matured market is a commodity market where price is main determinant.

    So, Apple has to be on the vigilance and better have a good answer to deal with the possible ultimate outcome as described by the author.

  28. The write has a point. I cannot play AAC files through my TiVo with the Home Media option. This works fine with MP3 files. I can play my entire library through my stereo or any of my playlists. However, AAC files are absent. It would be nice if Apple would work with some of these third parties to give consumers more solutions for playing the music they by from iTMS.

  29. At this point it’s unlikely competing music services can even get exclusives like the iTunes service can (as it has with U2) since what artist is going to want to align themselves with a minucule market share online music service & WMA format that isn’t playable on the world’s most popular player?

    iTunes is the only service with that kind of clout unless Microsoft starts spending some ridiculous amount of cash bribing artists over. Not likely though. Personally I think the online music/player war is over.

  30. Apple needs to either make a Home Media Center or license Fairplay to makers of TIVO and Soundbridge to keep its momentum going.

    I for one would like TIVO capabilities from Apple product.

  31. Another thing to consider is this.

    People don’t need to turn over a iPod every few years like they do a computer.

    So everyone who buys a iPod is going to keep the iPod for a long time.

    Third party manufactors realize this and that’s why they have picked the iPod for all their add-ons. Car stereo adapters, etc.

    People like this don’t make business decisions unless they see a clear winner, and the iPod is it.

    Apple put this show together and they intend to own it.

    What will most likely happen is Microsoft will bundle a M$ Music Store with each copy of ‘doze and sell it’s format that way to newbies.

    At least Apple has HP bundling iTunes with new PC’s, that’s good.

    This chess match was well planned out by Apple.

    Online music sales pale in comparison to illegal file sharing.

    Apple has appealed to the mass illegal file sharers as well by not inflicting them with restrictive encoding schemes like M$ has with mandatory WMA and Sony has by not even supporting MP3.

    Steve Ballmer: “We are going to make our DRM even harder and harder to crack” “Most iPod music is stolen”

    Just what we Mac users wanted to hear, thanks Monkeyboy!

    Sure 90% of music is stolen, doesn’t mean Apple is going to deny them use of their iPods or iTunes because of their choice.

    Apple just want’s to sell a container, what people put into it is their choice, not Sony’s or Microsoft’s.

    Apple rules!

  32. Sooner or laer Apple will start to licence Fairplay and open up their system, otherwise a head of steam will inevitably build behind the WMA mob.

    Apples strategy has always been to out innovate the competition and offer a better product – the iTunes/iPod combo will still be the best if they licence and will ensure they can never be isolated in the future like the Mac has in the past.

  33. p.s. Just look at Real, their Harmony software is iPod compatible but they still have a shite percentage of the market – Apple have nothing to fear from opening up a tiny bit.

  34. “Once again, compatibility appears to be only ‘compatible with Micro$oft.”

    No, compatibility is compatibility. The difference is, if you want to be compatible with Microsoft you call Microsoft and Microsoft says, “Okay, here, and pay me X to be compatible.”

    On the other hand, if you want to be compatible with Apple, you call Apple, and Apple says, “Eat me. Go pound sand.”

  35. Imagine if this story said “GE lightbulbs won’t fit in my Ford – and it’s all Ford’s fault” they would be laughed out of the house. Just because M$ is the biggest in PCs doesn’t mean QED they have to be the biggest in e-music. It’s a whole new ballgame; Apple has the ball and is running with it. I think we should go on the attack: we should start bombarding all the services with (polite) complaints that we just got a lovely new iPod and it won’t work with their service, and what are THEY going to do about it?! Once they see that a huge phalanx of iPod owners are spending money elsewhere they’ll run to Apple begging to license Fairplay. Oh, and let’s all buy a Dell “Digital Jukebox” and then return it because it won’t work with iTMS!!

  36. Stevie Wildstrom does not write good and leaves the topic he is writing on seem far and sketchy. To be a good journalist you need to have a way to grab people and keep the topic interesting. I believe Steve might someday be able to write good, anything is possible. But so far that is not true.

    Stevie Wildstrom has bad insights like he writes in an egg in a chicken coop. His insights don’t come from general fact, instead from hormonal conditions in his body. Sometimes he’s feeling happy, then he’s crying and hitting things and running into walls. Oh child! It’s awful.

    Someday he might deal well with the fact/fiction stuff and bolster journalism’s flailing integrity. But so far that is not true.

  37. The author writes: “Much as I hate to see the colossus of Redmond end up dominating yet another market, I believe that is going to happen.”

    However he doesn’t say why. Yet another fatalist who believes MS will inevitable dominate any market it enters.

    This time, thankfully, he’s wrong, due to Apple’s superb hardware-software integration and cross-platform availability.

    I might add that iTunes is growing in popularity independent of the iPod. There have been nearly 100 million copies downloaded.

  38. Wildstrom is overwhelmed with crappy products he has to review for a living. It’s no wonder he gets confused and irritated. Consumers should care about their suppliers lest they be screwed in the future. Apple is not perfect; but it’s more consumer oriented than Microsoft, who put themselves first and second, enterprise third, and consumers last.

    Janus and Longhorn will control your life … no thanks. The day I cannot deselect certain self-serving features of iTunes or any software / hardware product is the day I’ll opt for alternatives. And that goes for Business Magazines.

  39. Just because something is popular and dominating the market does not justify that it is a quality product.

    Just look at Windows right now.
    —
    hehe.. except that in the CE market certain things are valued in terms of quality and usability..

    Windows is dominant for very boring reasons like compatibility and 3rd party software…Bill Gates doesn’t think Windows is a pleasure to use.. but he understands why businesses aren’t moving to the Mac. And businesses are exactly why Apple ‘appears’ to have a terrible marketshare.

  40. People, please, stop your blind Apple defending for just one second.

    As much as you may like the iTMS music distribution model, there is a problem: songs from iTMS only play on iPods or iTunes. I can’t choose to use another player (say a Rio or Audion or TiVo or Soundbridge). That sucks. (Well, I could burn to a CD then re-import back as an mp3. So there’s ways around it, but it’s a huge hassle.)

    Also, I can’t choose to buy music from another store and play it on my iPod or iTunes.

    Someone earlier made the comparison of two stores next to each other. It was a lame comparison. What if there were two music stores next to each other, and each had a slightly different catalog. They charged different prices, some higher, some lower. They each offered unique and entertaining shopping experiences. (Maybe one has couches and coffee and free chocolates, and one is all soft and fluffy and you shop in bare feet and get massages while you browse.) If they were CD stores I could shop at both, or just the one I prefered, and regardless of which store I shopped at, my CD would play on my Sony or Philips or Denon or Panasonic CD player.

    With the Apple model, it doesn’t matter if a really great store opens up, I can’t shop there. And I can’t play my music on anything but my Apple player. And that’s lame.

    No matter how much YOU love your locked-in situation, that doesn’t mean it’s the best situation. Yes, the Apple store is great. That doesn’t mean other stores can’t also be great, and different, and enticing. Yes, iTunes is great. But I can list plenty of things I wish it did, and my SlimDevices Squeezebox won’t play iTMS-purchased songs.

    If DRM is going to be a necessary part of life, then it needs to be standardized and ubiquitous. Apple is in a strong position to license their DRM. I really hope they do it.

  41. I hear a lot of “work with Windows machines” and very little about open standards….isn’t AAC Mpeg part10, which was created as a standard from Dolby labs? And is AAC+ coming out soon with cd quality at 48khz? !!! It seems good to support.

    Why must we have a proprietary WMA files from Microsoft when the makers of devices can easily support multiple file formats? Why must we bear the burden of being limited to Microsoft or inferior MP3.

    Should we not challenge the device manufactur to open up standards as, I believe, Apple is doing by supporting a technology not developed in house at Apple. Microsoft is pushing a format to eliminate others that choose an open standard and having device makers encourge its illusion of reduced choice by supporting an in house format.

    Why, oh why, can you not produce a device that will support and create AAC files on these other devices….? Can it be that the cows are following the farmer with the feed (MS money)?

    And was it not disclosed that MS was paying millions of dollars, under the table, to write bad articles on Apple in court…..is history repeating itself?

    Choose carefully! Or your choices could be one flavor…….For me I choose AAC-damn the cattle!

  42. It’s too early to spend a lot on iTMS (or WMA). No idea if those files will play on anything in 10 years.

    Sympathies to the folk in Germany, but I’m sticking to CDs and ripping them. Some are as MP3s and some as AAC. But if I find those AAC files are useless in 5 years time, I can rip all those CDs again.

    One question. Those ‘protected’ CDs. Are you ripping from a CD player or a DVD player ? I found that the protected ones were fine ripping from the DVD reader, but locked up the CD reader.

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