“The love-hate relationship that investors have always had with Apple Computer now has analysts taking a more cautious stance at a time when the company’s stock revisited levels not seen in nearly four years,” Rex Crum reports for CBS.MarketWatch.com.
“The latest take on prospects for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company came Tuesday from Banc of America Securities analyst Keith Bachman, who said he thinks the run of good luck that Apple has enjoyed this month could be over because it was mostly due to sales of the iPod digital music player,” Crum reports. “Between March 1 and March 12, Apple’s shares climbed 15 percent, to $27.56. The last time the stock was in that range was in August 2000. But the stock has pulled back in recent sessions and traded recently at $25.79, down 2.5 percent.”
“While much of the tech sector has also been in retreat of late, Bachman said Apple’s shares might well have reached the upper limit of their valuation for the time being due to weak sales of G5 PowerMac computers,” Crum reports. “For its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 27, Apple shipped 206,000 G5 computers, short of many analysts’ estimates. Bachman estimates that Apple will ship 195,000 G5 PowerMacs in its current quarter.”
“Apple’s iTunes has even come up against some resistance, although its sales numbers would be the envy of anyone company playing in the online music market,” Crum reports. “It might… be difficult, if not impossible, for Apple to catch up with its own goals of selling 100 million songs by the first iTunes anniversary on April 28. Jobs said 2.5 million songs are being downloaded every week, and at that rate, iTunes would reach about 68 million songs by the time the service hits the one-year mark.”
Full article here.
AAPL shares are trading at $25.70, down 0.75 as of the posting of this article. AAPL quote here.
Apple is almost always undervalued. Investors just don’t know what Apple does for a living sometimes. Money types are always giving Apple “advise” that they cannot do because it has nothing to do with their business. Isn’t 5 billion in the bank, almost 200,000 high end G5’s sold in a quarter and being one of the two profitable computer companies enough for these people.
“For its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 27, Apple shipped 206,000 G5 computers, short of many analysts’ estimates. Bachman estimates that Apple will ship 195,000 G5 PowerMacs in its current quarter.”
well duhhh… imagine that, sales will probably go down in the last quarter before a product revision. But lo and behold, what do you think will happen once they release dual 2.5Ghz G5’s…
I’ll go out on a limb and be the analyst that predicts sales will go down in the quarter that precede the relase of 3Ghz G5’s.
tards.. all of em
Apple should be counting the Pepsi promotion when it announces the sales rate because it will count the total promotion as part of sales when it is all done. In the meantime people are extrapolating from an Apple-released sales rate which is not a complete representation of what is happening and coming to the wrong conclusion. It is Apple’s fault; they can’t say they will count Pepsi stuff toward the total and then not count it in the rate to get to that total. They are shooting themselves in the foot, ankle, … excelsior! (originally from NY).
remember, investors believe is $ god, they don’t give a shit about quality as long as the product sells well.
They expect Apple to be a company like Dell, selling crap for peanuts.
They don’t seem to get it that only creative thoughts survive.
Boeing777
Well said.
Less imitators, more innovators.
Duh. Investors aren’t public charities nor do they think of themselves as patrons of the arts. If they want to donate to a museum they’ll donate to a museum, not buy stock in a computer company. The only concern an investor has is, “If I buy $X of stock today, what will it be worth in the future.”
iMac sales are sinking, and Apple’s given no indication as when or how the product line will be changed to improved sales. G5 sales are flat, and Apple’s been delayed in releasing the next set of models. Of course whether they are delayed or not is guesswork, because Apple has given no indication, other than rumors, as to when the next models will be out or what the specs will be.
Powerbooks are doing okay, but are held back by buyers reluctant to sink more money into the G4. Hell, I’m one of those people. 12″ Powerbook is $1,999. My tax refund is $2,005. Seems like a match made in heaven, except I’m not spending $2,000 on a six month old model using a 1 GHz G4. Screw that. I’d set that money aside, except that Apple’s given no indication when the followup models will be released or what their specs will be.
Apple’s secretiveness is not investor friendly, and not giving a roadmap as to where the product lines are going leaves investors with no way to estimate what their $X will be worth down the line. Sitting on flat or dipping product lines like the iMac with no sign help is in sight doesn’t do much for investors either.
Their will now follow the usual explanation that Apple doesn’t aim at stock growth, but instead on maintaining its profits.
Fine. But if that is the case then stop whining about negative comments from investors. Apple is a publicly traded company lives under the same rules as everyone else.
I agree Boeing777, but unfortunately, it’s usually easier to sell a Yugo than a Lexus…
It’s all about VALUE. Buy a piece of crap and don’t whine to me about your ‘bad luck’
I bought a new G5 last Friday. In the last year I have purchased a new G3 iBook, G4 iBook, eMac, 1.8 G5, 17″ Studio Display, .Mac, AppleCare (x4), iSight, iLife, Garage Band, mini iPod, AirPort Extreme Base, 4 AirPort Cards (3 AP Ext, 1 AP), the Panther upgrade and other software & hardware. Add to that $350-400 worth of iTunes Gift Cards/Certificates for myself and about another $500 worth as gifts. I’ve done my part.
Apple will be announcing the Pepsi downloads in the total at the end of April. SJ should never had made a prediction as he did. It was stupid. You cannot project these things and I’m sure his marketing people were very upset about it. Apple doesn’t comment on future products and they shouldn’t have said anything about where they thought sales (downloads) would be for iTMS. Apple is not undervalued. Desktop sales industry-wide are not as robust as in the past. Believe it or not, the computer industry is no longer growing in double digits. Today the name of the game in computers is price points. Dell continues to dominate because of that. Because a larger percentage of buyers now use their computers for internet browsing, email and word-processing, most low-end computers now do that reasonably well. I love my 17″ iMac but it is still too expensive in perception by the general public. Apple continues to do a lousy job of getting the word out about overall value. Blame on their too long association with Chiat-Day. Few companies stay that long with the same ad agency. They usually move on to get the benefit of new blood and ideas that a change would bring. Apple will never be dominate in the industry. It ‘s too late for that. They lost the war a long time ago. They can win battles – such as the iPod, but have to make sure they don’t rest on their laurels and get smug about it. iTMS will eventually see it’s percentage of downloads diminish. I wish SJ would keep his mouth shut and not proclaim that no one will catch up. Apple saw that happen before. History does repeat itself. Rant over. (Happy 78th birthday Jerry!)
Well put OJ.
The entire market is in pullback mode. Greenspan has recently said that the crushing debt, both personally and in govenment, is not a problem and I think that has confused investors. On the one hand it would be nice if true, on the other it sounds as if he has given up trying to affect the situation. Bachman’s comments about G5’s seem to correlate with apple’s pullback over the last few days, but it would have been more impressive to anticipate the pullback given that info. He is a talking head with a potfull of “reasons” for any price action…..after the fact.
All that being said, why is it so quiet on the new product front? Amd and Intel wear themselves out anticipating new chips, and release dates, and I am not saying that is the way to do it. But it would be nice to have a small bone that is not 3rd party rumor once in a while.
Opinionated Jerk is right–these are FINANCIAL analysts, so of course their task is to care only about financial performance. I don’t think we should get too down about all this, pkradd. Apple still has plenty of opportunity if they (i.e., IBM) can ever get the new G5 chip out and refresh/upgrade the entire Apple computer line accordingly. The ongoing viruses and other internet security debacle on the Windows side shows NO sign of getting better any time soon. Oh, and they sure do need new/better commercials, but the time for that investment is when the new line is out and they have something hot to sell. My 2 cents…
The second quarter is historically Apple weakest e.g lower sales. To predict that sales of PowerMacs will be less than last quarter is like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow morning.
This is financial analyst headline grabbing.
pkradd, you as well as the rest of the journalistic world is taking Steve Jobs out of context in regards to iTunes.
Click here to read what he said, or click <a href-“http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/musicevent03/” >here</a> to see it again.
And about the rest of Apple, Apple Computer, Inc. is a computer company, not a personal lifestyles devices company. So, if the bread and butter of the company is not selling, then an investor has a right to be concerned about his/her investmenta and the future growth of the company.
Just my two cents.
Sorry about the last link. I had a typo in my HTML.
Try this instead.
With the Pepsi promotion going I’ve been buying more Pepsi and getting my songs that way, rather than buying them at ITMS with cash.
In terms of the G5, perhaps laptops are eating into sales of G5’s…
If you are buying Apple It’s either an iMac or a G5.. I guess they still make G4’s but threy are not considered ‘cool’, which is the point of this post. So if you are above general consumer levels you will then choose between the G5 tower or a laptop, and a lot of people think that the power of a high end laptop is powerful enough.
So.
I think a lot of people in the past ‘overbought’ when they got a pro tower, but now a powerbook is just right for power, portability, and coolness.
By coolness, I mean that a status-happy executive, or a techie that wouldn’t be caught DEAD with an iMac.
How are the laptop sales doing?
Does anyone else think that this theory is valid? I have executive friends who used to buy the most powerful tower Apple made because they wanted the biggest and best. They weren’t rendering After Effects projects. Just surfing and word processing. Total overkill. And at the time the laptops were pricey -and- weak by comparison.
Now the laptops are powerful, portable, take up a lot less room, are not NOISY, are considered chic, and the prices seem right. So people are buying laptops in droves. For themselves and for their spouses. They haven’t bought a tower in years.
I think that this might explain weak sales of G5’s.
Does this make sense
DV
If I held AAPL, I’d be more worried about the complete collapse of iMac sales. There was a lot of profit per machine on that one.
I’m waiting for the lower power dual G5 and the G5 Power Book. Once released, I’ll be giving Apple my money. I’m sure, many are waiting for the same.
David, it makes a lot of sense. Laptops are the only part of the market in which Apple is truly price competative. G5’s are high end but pricey, imacs and emacs are underpowered for their price, and their sales are worse off than g5’s. Consumers are not the knuckle draggers that some around here assume, these are obvious choices at the moment, and sales reflect that. I personally find laptops
to be too constricting for normal use, but maybe my fingers are fat. As well, I always have more than one monitor, and a desktop allows for multimonitor flexibilty.
Many here besides me have wondered about a headless iMac g5 to revamp the entry level line. Seems an obvious solution, prone to switching, but then SJ is way smart, and losing sales might be his mission for now…..beats me.
The thing I am getting out of all this is that Apple is either hitting right on their own estimates or surpassing them, yet these investors have been estimating more than Apple. Anybody remember the sales predictions for the G5s? They are right on track. They already said they would end up counting the Pepsi songs. They can’t make enough iPods as it is, and HP is going to sell even more. What an upside down market we have. No, wait, I take that back. What messed up analysts we have.
Apple is making shit for computers right now and we all know it. Any decent DIY can put together a dual G5 killer for $999.
I still use a rev a powerbook G4 and Quicksilver. I do the heavily lifting with the P4 that I built myself for peanuts with a 3.4 GHz CPU and RADEON 9800 Pro.
None of the current machiens give me a boner – a G5 laptop would, but when can I buy one of those?
Seriously..laptops are the only market segment where Apple is competitive and is the only market segment where they are doing well…however the Powerbooks are getting to where the iMacs and PowerMacs were a year ago–close to falling off the edge performance wise. In response to the expected whining that the G4 is enough:
1) They are called f-ing POWERbooks, not PUSSYbooks. Therefore it is proper to expect a certain amount of computing power out of them. Rename them PussyBook and I won’t complain. (Of course, if they were renamed PussyBook Beth would buy ten of them.) Right now the 12″ Powerbook isn’t significantly more powerful than the 12″ iBook, and once you load a DVD writer into the 15″ PB it isn’t quite as competitive.
2) Apple has released a very inexpensive consumer music creation program called GarageBand. I want a PowerBook that do a credible job running GarageBand. Until a PowerBook can do that, it is not overpowered.
>Any decent DIY can put together a dual G5 killer for $999.
Really? How?
Here�s what I wrote yesterday in the “Apple missed Itunes Goal” thread:
“I warned you all…too much of the press and all their good news about the ipod…
The pendulum is starting to swing the other way and the press is hungry to write the negative Apple news.
Next they will latch on that it has been almost a year and no new desktop computers….”
Hmmmm…With this thread here, guess I was kind of correct on that prediction about poor computer sales.
Next prediction: The iPod makes Apple about zero money (profit), iTunes makes apple zero money – they are using them as “loss-leaders” to get people to buy new Apple computers.
Problem is, the iPod converted computer sales aren�t happening.
Predicition 2: Once HP starts selling iPods, Apple-branded iPod sales will drop off the cliff.
Just when the average Joe gets excited about a stock, that’s when it tanks.
My gift to Apple in the last 6 months was a $5,000 G5 with 23″ ACD, three iPods, 2 eMacs, $5000 worth of iTunes, another $2000 worth of hard drives, software, airport, and other assorted goodies bought through them.
I’m done for many many years
Cure disease with a simple application you run in the dock. If your not Folding, your just a insensitive prick (laptop users excluded)
press boy 2 writes:
“The iPod makes Apple about zero money (profit), iTunes makes apple zero money – they are using them as “loss-leaders” to get people to buy new Apple computers.”
Get your facts straight because you are wrong. Profit margins on the iPod are almost as large as those on Apple’s Mac products. While the iTunes music store may not make much money, the iPod makes plenty of money.
I predict that in time, as more and more people get their hands on iPod hardware, they will experience first hand the quality and ease of use of Apple’s products and make a switch. Not everyone, but some will. I witnessed a Widoze sufferer convert to the Mac platform just this past weekend at a CompUSA store, mainly due to viruses though.
Ditto on waiting for a G5 Powerbook. The $$$ is just sitting there, waiting to be spent.
If nothing happens in this month or next, I’ll be steering that $$$ to and AMD64 notebook. But then again, with some new AMD64 notebooks due to arrive in the same time frame… maybe I’ll just stick to the Windows platform for another 3-5 years.
I wish Apple would hurry. G5 the Powerbook already! They’d make at least $2k off of me at the onset.
Ditto on waiting for a G5 Powerbook. The $$$ is just sitting there, waiting to be spent.
If nothing happens in this month or next, I’ll be steering that $$$ to and AMD64 notebook. But then again, with some new AMD64 notebooks due to arrive in the same time frame… maybe I’ll just stick to the Windows platform for another 3-5 years.
I wish Apple would hurry. G5 the Powerbook already! They’d make at least $2k off of me at the onset.
Any decent DIY can put together a dual G5 killer for $999.
Haaaaaa Haaaaa Really a 3.4 P4 is a G5 killer. LOL
thats just retard speak
I guess the recent P4 kills dual G5 in 55 of 70 tests was not CLEAR ENOUGH.
That doesn’t even include games – which for anyone that wants 12*10 with all details and some AA and AF in any game newer than 1997 vintage the Mac is an absolute non starter.
If you still buy Rubensteins rubbish about pipelines and branch prediction as being PowerPC’s big advantage over Intel than you are A RUBE. Especially now that the G5 uses the same trciks that Apple condemned.
The simple fact is that most Mac users are very smart at what they do, and utter idiots when it comes to architecture. Jobs could encase his feces in acryllic and you would still buy it.
The G5, in non of it’s present guises is a must have for me, and in fact most Mac users. The numbers speak for themselves. If it’s so great why isn’t it selling the way it should?
Now G5 PowerBooks @ 1.6 -2.0 GHz would be soemthing to get excited about.
‘Any decent DIY can put together a dual G5 killer for $999.
Haaaaaa Haaaaa Really a 3.4 P4 is a G5 killer. LOL’
Spoken like a G5 owner. Hey, keep your eyes shut, you didn’t use them when researching your big purchase so there is no point in opening them now.
It’s really easy if you put the same shitty GF FX5200 in it.
Unless they do something with that line, I will just give my money to Sonnet and get a dual 1.6 when they come out – or a G5 upgrade from PowerLogix.
Perry when you can charge $1200 a day as a PS expert then you can tell me what’s faster- I own both a G5 dual and a Dual Xeon (which it replaces)
I also have a BTEC in Computer systems and the first PC I built was based on a 8088 processor in 1981.
of the G5
“If it’s so great why isn’t it selling the way it should?”
IT IS!! it’s sold over 800,000 in 8 months!!!
Perry you are typical of the average uniformed idiot, making quote about architecture’s not being up to scratch (name a better one Prescott anyone?)
Utter retard or just blind? ignorant or both?
fuck off asshole – anyone can get a diploma from Sally Struthers and that is obviously what you have.
What I know are the facts – something you should accept
“fuck off asshole – anyone can get a diploma from Sally Struthers and that is obviously what you have.
What I know are the facts – something you should accept”
Perry
your true colours are shown at last!!!
And for when you grow up�
Let me give you some advice, just because something is right for you doesn’t mean it’s the same for everyone else.
i.e the facts as you see it may well be true, and I most certainly DON’T have to accept them.
Your $999 PC for instance did you factor in the cost your time (how much are you worth) not just build time but parts buying time.
My G5 if you are interested was FREE (set against tax over 2 years).
This would not have applied to a self build.
So my G5 & 23″ monitor at a cost of �0.00(with 3 years applecare) will see your $999 looking rather poor value indeed.
Particularly when you consider a P4 can’t run FCP hasn’t got system wide colour profiles ( v important when importing from PS to Quark)
your argument starts to look weak!!
Still you know the facts Perry and I’m just a Asshole with a big house, car, wife 3 kids holiday home in France, who would rather race my vintage 356B Porsche in my spare time rather than play video games.
What do I know?
Here’s another theory for weak sales of G5s.
Money.
In the 90’s I was makng enough money as a photographer and computer artist / animator to buy the hottest Apple computer every few years.
But since 9/11, a weak economy, a collapse in the photo market (for assignments and stock photography), and clients who are hiring animators around the world instead of in their area (it’s happening to ME in the NYC area) I just don’t have the cash to buy G5s now. So I buy older Macs on Ebay and keep them up to date with processor upgrades.
A lot of people in the NYC area, photographers, computer artists, advertising agencies, audio and video facilities, etc. are slow or going out of business. And these are the people who buy Apple computers, not Pee-Seas.
Or shall I say, we buy them when we have the money.
David Vesey
DV, stop making sense.
Blue, stop touting your resume. It can’t be proven, and matters not compared to facts, for instance your “a P4 can’t run FCP hasn’t got system wide colour profiles”, whatever that means, or perry’s “I guess the recent P4 kills dual G5 in 55 of 70 tests was not CLEAR ENOUGH”, should he post the link.
The financially and emotionally secure know how to act. I doubt that you are either.
Joe”
a P4 can’t run FCP hasn’t got system wide colour profiles”, whatever that means
if you don’t know what that means you’ve never used a Mac PERIOD
The financially and emotionally secure know how to act. I doubt that you are either.
EH?
I doubt you have an IQ of above say 5?
Retard
I figured it out. Bluebeetle is RV. The signature is a perfect match. Otherwise there are two simpletons with exactly the same affinity for home grown “credibility”, use of pejoratives, and guessing IQ.
If you do have 3 kids, dude, god help them.
duh fcp is Final Cut Pro. Strangely enough the 4 people in my family who have macs who are NOT editors and have NOT spent a grand on the program did not know what it was.
“if you don’t know what that means you’ve never used a Mac PERIOD” Bluebeetle says. I don’t know how to tell my relatives that all that time they have spent computing…….doesn’t count.
Must suck to be you, bluebeetle.
Isn’t that what you always say RV?
My Dual G5 is the fastest and most drop dead neat looking Mac I ever owned (had my fair share).
However, it’s also the third one and ALL have been noisy as heck – I gave up in the end TBH.
I suggest that this is one major reason many have waited for RevB.
Joe
Why do you come here?
You don’t own a Mac, You don’t know about system wide colour profiles (colorsync)
The only purpose for you to come here is to make “simplistic” arguments based on absolutely no experience.
Furthermore NO it doesn’t count that you relatives own a Mac, I’m sure they have a wider computing knowledge than you though.
I don’t have to post links to support that I own a G5 or a Porsche (1959 356B with Super 90 engine)
Just stop pretending you have a third uncles’ cousin’s stepbrother that owns a Mac and do something more constructive with your time
Quote
Must suck to be you, bluebeetle
Yeah
Not as much as being a sad dumb person posting on a Mac website when he doesn’t own a Mac�that really sucks
Quote
“Strangely enough the 4 people in my family who have macs who are NOT editors and have NOT spent a grand on the program did not know what it was”.
Why is that so strange?
So that makes the point bluebeetle made about FCP not running on a P4 less valid does it Joe?
Quote
“I don’t know how to tell my relatives that all that time they have spent computing…….doesn’t count”.
If he is a multi media pro (and we only have his word) your families ignorance of his situation, and your use of that to validate your weak points doesn’t count
I really have to question your reason for posting here Joe, off topic and flaming, not even owning a Mac!
Bluebeetle please also don’t post calling people names like “retard” I know others here called you an “asshole” but it doesn’t mean you have to sink to the pitiful depths that they do.
I would like to point out that speed isn’t everything.
It’s been my experience that PC’s have a higher total cost of ownership than macs.
I do agree that mac should be more open about when it plans to have G5 power books, and at 3 grand for dual G5, without a monitor looks expensive compared to the dell adds on tv for a $300 crap box from China.
Something I think that gets lost in all of this is the fact that people that know quality, will pay more for it, even if it doesn’t make economic sense. How else would you justify all the expense for buying a Benz or Lexus. Jug wine is fine for some people, but that doesn’t cut it for me. You can�t polish a turd, and any CPU that has an ID key built into it isn�t for me (I don�t care if you can turn it off, or that they don�t make it anymore, they made it once, that�s enough).
I have worked with AIX servers, thin clients, PCs, AS400s, etc. The reason why I use a mac, is that it has a better graphical interface than windows/linux, gives me a unix console (the world wide standard language for computers on a network for the pc dork named Joe), and keeps me head ace free (aka it just works, and doesn’t remind me of work, witch is a luxury Joe will understand once he is out of mom and dad�s house).
I’ve never owned a pc that I haven’t had to reload at least once a year, due to a SP screwing something up or virus getting past my desktop firewall and AV software, but my simple G3 iMac keeps on running, just like my refrigerator, for the past four years. Now that is appliance computing! The addition of iTunes Music Store last year, and my 20g iPod last fall have changed my life in such a positive manner that I may never buy another PC!
Everyone who owns a mac has their own reason, and I�m eternally grateful that we have an option to windows XP that ends up being better over all than Linux, and I�m only using 10.1.5!
Now if Apple could only justify the higher price with a big �Made In America� flag on it, I would feel better about the whole deal…. At least the CPU�s are made here
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Still made about the �made in china� sticker on my iPod!
Remember, Bill Gates robbed and stole his OS. Do you really want to support that?
As far as Dell overtaking the iPod, I�m sure it will, just like VHS overtook Beta. id10ts rule!