Using figures from Gartner that project PC vendors will ship 187 million units in 2004, up almost 14% from 2003, Paul Thurrot sees doom for Apple Computer’s Mac platform. Recent Apple CPU sales show 700,000 to 800,000 units a quarter or just over three million units for the year.
Apple Computer’s Macintosh platform “will continue to lose ground, as the company has done every year since Steve Jobs took over. Given the best-case for Apple (800,000 units a quarter, or 3.2 million units for the year), Apple will sell just 1.7 percent of all computers in 2004, compared to 1.88 percent for 2003. But that’s the best case. It will certainly be lower,” Paul Thurrott writes for Paul Thurrott’s Internet Nexus, which proclaims itself to be “an honest look at Windows alternatives by technology reporter Paul Thurrott.”
Thurrott continues, “There’s no debate [about Apple’s market share] (indeed, Apple executives are still using the bogus 5 percent figure). Apple’s market share is 1.88 percent today, and as your own math showed you, it will be 1.7 percent or lower in 2004. Why is this so hard for Mac advocates to understand? The Mac market is ending. Let’s hope Apple has broader consumer electronics plans than just the iPod.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Why is it so hard for Paul to understand that the Mac isn’t going away any time soon? Is it too great a leap to imagine a meaningful percentage of Windows iPod and iTunes users checking out a Mac for their next computer purchase – especially in light of Windows’ virus du jour situation and the multi-year wait for “Longhorn?” We see a Mac renaissance taking place. Paul sees only doom. What do you see?
Re Apples market share, we should all worry. In the UK, Lead Replacement Petrol (Gas to Americans) was available everywhere after the phasing out of leaded petrol but not enough cars required it. When market share fell to just a few pecent of total petrol sales LRP was generally withdrawn and is virtually impossible to find. When software companies can generate 95% of their profits from Intel users why worry about the 5% from Apple users bearing in mind the hassle of maintainingand marketing two versions of the same software. As long as market share continues shrinking then this is a likely scenario. It happened to the Microstation CAD software I use FOUR years ago so I write from personal experience. What really irritates me is that Apple could hugely boost it’s market share by just running a few adds explaining that Macs run Office and can be used for virtually all computing requirements, home and business – but they don’t (and won’t). In the UK their marketing is non-existent, all I’ve seen in the last six months are some poxy iPod ads and they aren’t going to get Microstation back on the platform (or convince someone to ditch a PC and all the money they’ve invested in software etc). I’m sure I read a couple of months ago that Adobe had ceased Mac support for one of it’s video editing applications, who can say what will be next. Mac sales seem to be improving but for Christ’s sake Apple, do some decent advertising/marketing for once and do us all a favour.
where I live (upstate NY) every ( and yes I mean every) windows user has really bad virus/spyware problems. The entire system of internet+windows systems will probably be unusable for consumers within a year or so. It’s Paul’s career… he should be forgiven for flailing out in terror.
If all of these “experts” had been right about Apple, it would have gone away a long time ago, and they wouldn’t have anything to write about. So all I say about this person is to ignore him and not to get yourself all in knots because an hopelessly wrong statement.
Clive, I think your Argument is a little over simplified.
Yes PC’s have 95% of the software market, but software companies don’t necessarily get 95% of revenue from those users.
Adobe state that around a third of their software sold is on the Mac platform, yet the usage ratio is less, what does that tell you?
Yes PC users “bootleg” more this is why you have activation on PSCS for PC users ONLY.
As for Adobe dropping Premiere for the Mac that was because they couldn’t compete with FCP and Avid and their product “sucked” BIG TIME.
As for CAD you can still get some great products for the Mac
http://www.nemetschek.net/
http://www.macreviewzone.com/html/reviews/magazine/software/draw_cad.php
But Sure the market leader (AutoCAD) is missing.
I also live in the UK and see quite a few Ad’s for Mac (G5 on TV)
Your analogy with LRP doesn’t really stand up as the cars on the road requiring LRP is less than 0.01% (according to Gvt figures) and you could always just buy leaded petrol if you wish as it is still on sale.
You can also buy unleaded and use an additive to make it safe for your old banger/classic car.
There will be less software choice for the mac. In some ways it’s a good thing. The people entering the mac market have to make good software to compete. In the PC market they can make shoddy software and still sell enough to make some money, even if they only sell to 1% of users.
Also, you have a choice of 50 applications, which one do you choose ? That’s a lot of research to do. If you have 2 or three quality choices, it’s a much easier decision. Curiously, a lot of those choice quality applications are also the ones that make it big on the PC too (Macromedia, Adobe etc).
Something that IS needed though is reader software from Microsoft. You can get a Word reader for the PC, but not (AFAIK) for the Mac. Without low end ‘Works’ alternatives, it makes begin Office compatible a very expensive thing in the Mac world. (Appleworks’ Office compatibility is a joke and OpenOffice isn’t ready for primetime)
Also Clive, Petrol Stations make very little money out of petrol. They make it out of food and fags etc. They make the same cut on all types of petrol, but have a limited number of pumps. In this case once an obscure petrol type’s share falls below the ratio of the market defined by one pump in that particular petrol station, it will be canned. A shop selling computers does not have to behave this way. If it is profitable in its own right it will find shelf space. Also if you look at Micro Anvika pretty much everything in the window is Mac – obviously the eye candy nature brings in foot traffic. This is another reason they will find shelf space.
I’ve never been to Thurrot’s site before. Incredible. An honest look at Microsoft alternatives.Hahahahahhah. There isn’t one article that says anything remotely pleasant or complimentary about anything but M$. There’s one up there that claims Windows has done more to advance the desktop over the last 20 years – they didn’t copy anything.Teehee!
I currently have 86% of the market in hen’s teeth. I obiously have a much better future than Apple. Sell all your shares in Apple and invest in me. You know it makes sense.
Such dumb logic. 1.8% of Bill Gates bank balance or 100% of mine? Now, take your time……
very, very few windows ipod users are dumping their pcs and buying a mac. if the opposite were true, apple would be trumpeting to max.
delays in the upgrade of osx which are delaying the faster g5s will hurt mac sales.
emac and imac are proven dogs, with their sales dropping…soon to join the cube hall of fame.
computers are becoming more and more of a lower-price trend commodity, while apple keeps its prices propped up based on “fashion”…as in it�s “cool” to own an apple product.(note apple advertising leans more to the cool/fashion image factor and not the practical reasons to buy an apple computer or ipod or…) Unfortunately, very few can afford the luxury of fashionable products….maybe 1.77-5% of the market????
Guys let it be.
On the long run Windows will be the joke for administrations.
Appel-Mac is t h e creative platform and that will increase as long as a visionair runs Apple.
Mark, I agree that I simplified the argument but nevertheless it is logical. If Apple sales fell to say 0.01% of the total market then even if Mac users purchased shed loads of software the revenue will be quite insignificant compared to that from Intel users. At some point it must become a waste of resources to produce software for the Mac. It would only take the loss of a few key applications and Apple would be in dire straits.
Also, yes you can get good CAD software for the Mac but as a self employed draftsman with thirteen years Microstation usage I don’t want to relearn everything I do, especially as I am very productive compared to Autocad users. It would b a major investment particularly in terms of time and then I may find that I still have to change my working methods. It probably be more practical for me to buy a ‘decent’ PC, put up with some unreliability and get the latest Microstation upgrade in order regain my former Autocad compatibility, maintain my workflow and hence earnings.
Re G5 ads on TV, yes I saw them until the Advertising Standards Authority forced them to be pulled due to the dubious ‘Most Powerful’ claim. Where is the replacement ad? Particularly one which presents the Mac as a viable alternative to a PC. Recently friends bought a PC because they didn’t believe me when I said Mac Office files were totally compatible with PC Office files – they wanted to see adverts and evidence in the media. Only once in the last few years have I seen an ad in a PC magazine which detailed the Macs capabilities but it was doomed to failure as it was six Apple pages sandwiched between four hundred PC pages. It can’t be difficult to produce a TV ad that says ‘Run Office, play games, surf the web, email, make movies and organise your iPods music library’. I think I must be stupid, enigmatic ads voiced by Jeff Goldblum that tell you nothing, certainly wouldn’t persuade me to buy a Mac unless I was I Mac nut (which I am). And as for all the recednt cobblers about the 1984 ad, let’s move on. That ad has NO significance to anyone but the Mac community and yet it’s held up as some sort of Holy Grail – it was just an ad for Chrissake.
While I’m on advertising, where are the ads by local Mac suppliers in local newspapers. Why don’t some Apple resellers bother to phone you back when you have a couple of grand to spend? Why do John Lewis and PC World only have about three items of software on the shelf? I despair.
I think Thurrott is hilarious. Let’s keep him as our pet nerd
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Thurrott the Skunk!!!
I’d love to see his PC he keeps in his mum’s house (where he lives, still), I bet it’s a massive clear box with huge fans, neon lights and go fast stripes all over it, multi coloured keyboard and mouse and one of those strange animal covers over his monitor.
Windows sucks. Everybody knows. Thurrott is the exception.
Keep churning out the articles Paul, you keep me smiling with your bulls**t articles. Surely you can be taken to court and sentenced to 20 years hard labour for the whoppers you are telling?
Thurrot is a simpleton trying to understand something above his IQ.
What he sees is only the global % of Apple presence in a fast growing market.
Computer illiterates – and new businesses in need to go online – will choose a Wintel solution more easily than an Apple one.
Still, Apple sales are increasing – comparing Apple to Apple. Thurrot does simply do not understand that that has nothing to do with Apple not thriving or disappearing: it would if the # of PC in the world was stable or shrinking but since it is INCREASING you get a smaller total market share even if you sell MORE but less than market growth. It is very simple to see that Apple is not at all doomed but requires a higher IQ than Thurrot is currently showing with his conclusions. LOL
“computers are becoming more and more of a lower-price trend commodity, while apple keeps its prices propped up based on “fashion”…as in it�s “cool” to own an apple product.(note apple advertising leans more to the cool/fashion image factor and not the practical reasons to buy an apple computer or ipod or…) Unfortunately, very few can afford the luxury of fashionable products….maybe 1.77-5% of the market????”
So by this logic, Prada, Luis Vitton, Tiffany, BMW, Jaguar, Vera Wang, will all be going out of business, Gee, right about now!
I live in lower manhattan until a year ago. there are an Awful lot of of VERY high end clothing makers, who sell an item for ridiculous sums of money. I can’t imagine spending $4000 on a leather jacket. but oddly, they dont go out of business?
Using Garret figures:
PC sales are up 14%
Apple sales are globally up ~2.8%
Then OF COURSE global market share is shrinking but Apple is selling MORE, idiot. Hence way far from doomed and considerable part of that 2.8% more (Apple says 50%) comes from switchers.
Doomed? yeah, so much so I am still buying AAPL as much as I can.
He
UK FACES DOOM PREDICTS THURROTT.
As the UK population falls below 1.2% of World population UK is bound to disappear over time, predicts Paul Thurrott. It appears that even though the UK population is rising, they are breeding lots faster elsewhere. This spells doom for UK obviously as soon the UK will make up less than 1% and will then just vanish in a puff of logic. email to paul@vapidcasuouscomment.com
How about a little direct action.
http://www.petitiononline.com/muapt1/petition.html
The fact is, PCs which have a life less than half that of Macs (which are relevant and useful far longer) will always outsell Macs – because they become outdated and obsolete far more quickly, and hence have to be replaced. Apple’s user base is steady and from all accounts is growing.
Paul Thurrot is paid by Microsoft to spread this kind of garbage and be flamed by Mac “zealots”. Until Paul’s argument is presented as fallacious, and his conclusions are proven to be unfounded (which they are), he will keep starving oxygen from the needy.
Speaking of computers lasting longer, I just went to slash dot and saw this article “Manufacturing 1 PC Takes 1.8 Tons Of Raw Material”. It’s located a the following site:
http://www.infoworld.com/article/04/03/07/hnunstudy_1.html
Seems like longer lifespan may be more of a virtue than we thought. Just wish they’d mention the lifespan of computers when they discuss total costs to users.
I use both Macs & PCs. It amazes me how silly people get about computers. They are tools, useful in different ways, strong in some and weak in others.
That being said, it amazes me how so many Mac users get all silly about a article giving a peek into the future. Accurate or not, a peek is all it is.
Buy one size larger undies next time.
I love my Macs (running 4 of em)… but I love my PCs as well.
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My next machine is going to be a AMD64 laptop unless a G5 PowerBook comes out in the next month. So happy I can use my iPod on Windows machines. Funny thing is the iPod is the best operating hard drive based mp3 player I can find for Windows.
I use both Macs & PCs. It amazes me how silly people get about computers. They are tools, useful in different ways, strong in some and weak in others.
That being said, it amazes me how so many Mac users get all silly about a article giving a peek into the future. Accurate or not, a peek is all it is.
Buy one size larger undies next time.
I love my Macs (running 4 of em)… but I love my PCs as well.
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My next machine is going to be a AMD64 laptop unless a G5 PowerBook comes out in the next month. So happy I can use my iPod on Windows machines. Funny thing is the iPod is the best operating hard drive based mp3 player I can find for Windows.
I thought there was only improvement since Steve Jobs came back!
Profits and OS X. I bought a new emac last year and luv it! OS 10.2.8
I read that mac went from 5% to 10% market share.
I hope we are virus and worm free forever!
http://www.millenniafever.org
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
That has got to be the funniest title of all time. I am laughing so hard I might get a hernia.
First off, this tool has zero credibility whatsoever. Secondly, he’s only doing this in order to strike a nerve as bait to try to get a lot of website hits. I’m not going to accomodate him by getting upset or hitting his lame ass website. His opinion is absolutely worthless anyway…
I see dead Windoze PCs.
Why do you bother with this guy? He is of no consequence and lies about his objectivity all the time. His entire income stream is based on Windows garbage from books to web sites. Ignore him.