Thurrott: ‘The Mac market is ending’

Using figures from Gartner that project PC vendors will ship 187 million units in 2004, up almost 14% from 2003, Paul Thurrot sees doom for Apple Computer’s Mac platform. Recent Apple CPU sales show 700,000 to 800,000 units a quarter or just over three million units for the year.

Apple Computer’s Macintosh platform “will continue to lose ground, as the company has done every year since Steve Jobs took over. Given the best-case for Apple (800,000 units a quarter, or 3.2 million units for the year), Apple will sell just 1.7 percent of all computers in 2004, compared to 1.88 percent for 2003. But that’s the best case. It will certainly be lower,” Paul Thurrott writes for Paul Thurrott’s Internet Nexus, which proclaims itself to be “an honest look at Windows alternatives by technology reporter Paul Thurrott.”

Thurrott continues, “There’s no debate [about Apple’s market share] (indeed, Apple executives are still using the bogus 5 percent figure). Apple’s market share is 1.88 percent today, and as your own math showed you, it will be 1.7 percent or lower in 2004. Why is this so hard for Mac advocates to understand? The Mac market is ending. Let’s hope Apple has broader consumer electronics plans than just the iPod.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Why is it so hard for Paul to understand that the Mac isn’t going away any time soon? Is it too great a leap to imagine a meaningful percentage of Windows iPod and iTunes users checking out a Mac for their next computer purchase – especially in light of Windows’ virus du jour situation and the multi-year wait for “Longhorn?” We see a Mac renaissance taking place. Paul sees only doom. What do you see?

92 Comments

  1. he’s an idiot. did you know, there are still people today who think einstein is wrong? so, stupidity still persists in this golden age of technology. only the stupid ones who play mean are normally the one’s that get heard.

  2. I see light at the end of the tunnel, but the marketing situation needs to change. I think Chiat/Day is doing a poor job of getting the word out that OS X is superior in most ways to XP. Some of that blame must lie with Apple as well. Apple’s ads enforce the “Toy” myth currently. They are cutsie, cool, but all in all they are uninformative. They make Mac users want to buy another Mac, but don’t do that much to inform Windows user why the should switch other than tell them that they should.

    Sorry just my little Apple to grind.

  3. He is such a turd. Please, stop putting Thurrott’s dribble in here and he will disappear. The only traffic he get’s is when he writes an article like this. If Macdaily would stop, he will go away. Please?!

  4. Pure junk journalism. Tired, Chicken Little rhetoric. Not worth a second of any thinking person’s time, or worth recruiting a single neuron in service of even the thought of reading it. Ignore, move along, and hope that MDN can track down articles containing productive, intelligent criticism in the future.

  5. I’ve been hearing this for the last 10years , since I bought my first Mac. THEY have all proclaimed the death, yet it hasn’t happened. I think it’s just wishful thinking on their part.

  6. There is only one word that matters in business. Profit. Apple has been profitable, even as other companies haven’t. Clearly, Mr. Thurrott is baiting. If you’re belief is that only popularity matters, you obviously aren’t a mac user. Not worth my time. Show me the losses. Or get your jollies doing actual journalism.

  7. Profit in business matters – not volume – as long as Apple makes profits, has a market to sell to, whats the problem? People such as mr Thurott who are not in business as such will never get it.
    Mac will likely make inroads in to niche markets – where quality, performance not price drives the decision makers…

  8. I’m with cpr86 on this one!!

    ‘Doom Doom Doom’ is the catchcry… and profitability is the key to long term survival here, which Apple has done in a down market.

  9. Paul Thurrot, just does not understand, he has been brainwashed like so many others. First of all, Apples biggest marketing mistake has been making great products that keep working perfectly for year after year, thats it.
    Problem is, if it still works, why buy a new one. (totally unlike most PC’s on the market) I cant count how many WinPCs my friends have been through while my first Mac is still fully functional.
    I am sure Jaguar or Mercedes have a small share of the auto sales market, compared to Ford. But you get what you pay for, and I doubt those guys will be out of business any time soon either.

  10. 25 months ago, I purchased an iMac – and discovered that a computer can be a reliable and stable tool. My family and friends watched with amusement for the first two or three months – but are now all (yes, every one) big Apple fans.

    All this from seeing my machine when visiting my home (and my occasional reminders that viruses just don’t matter to me.)

    12 months ago, my son switched to Apple, and last month, my sister purchased an Apple laptop. Kenneth, my old friend, has announced that he will be purchasing a G5 just as soon as the new revisions hit the market. Harry at work will wait for a G5 iMac, but in the mean time, has purchased a used iBook.

    Slowly, surely… but with real momentum… the tide is starting to run the other way….

  11. I bought a PowerMac G4 733 (single) several years ago. It hasn’t required a single repair and just works. I was planning on buying a new Mac this year, but OS X 10.3 gave my computer a new responsiveness. It’s plenty fast for me – even for Halo though it’s less than the minimum 800Mhz requirement.

    Apple is shooting itself in the foot, making quality products that last.

  12. Part of the reason that you keep hearing these is that it’s a “safe bet.”

    Wait! Put down that flamethrower!

    First off, you can make silly statements like this forever because you will never being wrong–it’ll happen any time now. Just wait for it. And if you’re right–God forbid, Apple gets out of the computer business–you can say “See! I was right!”

    It’s sort of like being Vice-President Cheney. He doesn’t know when. He doesn’t know where. But someday, when we least expect it, there will be another terrorist attack on America. If it doesn’t happen, he can claim it was because of government policies. If it does, he gets to be right. Win-win, it’s called.

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