“Merrill Lynch increased its 2004 unit growth forecast to 13% from 11%, the same as in 2003, based on a decent consumer showing and an improving corporate market,” Forbes.com reports.
“Apple Computer saw unit share dip below 2% for the first time–down to 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Merrill Lynch said, ‘We expect iPod success eventually to spill over into Mac purchases,'” Forbes.com reports.
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Apple share below 2% and selling as never done before. Merrill Lynch should know better that global market share has little to do with actual presence in the consumer market.
That also explain why, contrary to what anal-ysts predicted, iTMS sales did not jump tenfolds with the release of the Windows version: cash registers, dumb terminal and alike do not account for a home user behind. All that 95% of market share probably amounts to less than 50% of home users.
well, judging from my Wintel friends they do not even *dare* to dowload or share music online because of viruses. Some do connect just for the time to send an email and disconnect again. I tell them it is a dumb way to use a computer but they simply do not believe my Mac is immune. Seeing me with a permanent connection is not enough. Normally they are clever but on computing it is as if someone unplugs their brains and they praise Microsoft. For what it is beyond comprehension.
While the logic is sound enough and you did say ‘probably’, the ‘less than 50% of home users’ doesn’t quite ring true. It may well be 85% to 90% rather than 95%, but less than 50% is really pushing it.
I like it, but I don’t believe it for a moment !
Part of the problem is that windows ships with most PCs, but a fair few move to Linux. Those switchers don’t affect the market share. I don’t think there are any installed OS market share figures. I’d expect them to be slightly different to the simple PCs sold figures (to the detriment of windows).
The problem with the spillover idea is that iPods sell better than hotcakes because they are great AND price competitive.
However it is widely believed, by the people who are shopping for computers, that Macs are not price competitive.
The bottom line counts for a lot.
Hywel, perhaps I read Seahawk’s post differently. I thought Seahawk was saying that less than 50% of the pc sales are to home users. You make a good point that the market share numbers can no longer be interpreted to assume a specific os.
treadlightly / Seahawk.
Re-read it and engaged brain this time. I see what you mean now ! yes. WAY less than 50%.
In my case, I have 1 PC at work, 1 PC and 2 macs at home. But I attach to a fair number of PC servers at work in order to get my work done.
Plus EVERYBODY here has a PC and there are PCs in meeting rooms. The chef has a PC on the network, the security guy on the front desk has a PC on the network. There’s a PC running the plasma screen at the front desk (and badly too – OS-X would do a much better job)
In fact, I might see if I can get konfabulator to do a better job just to demonstrate it to them.
Joe, you may be partially right about the cost, but consider this: More and more PC virii (including today’s announcement that MyDoom now deletes files) are making people madder and madder at their computers. So now they stop by an Apple store and get an iPod, and they see the new iMacs. They start looking at them, talking to people, and considering the purchase. The spillover effect may get some of these folks.
More and more reasons to switch these days. People are slow to learn, but it’s happening.
I always wonder what the percents would be if you only looked at “personal” computers. I would think that the majority of MACs are used at home. Take out the work/business PC and what do you get?
if Apple made computesr to the same low quality standards as the PC assemblers, their market share would go way up because people would have to buy a new one much more often or when a new OS is rolled out. I read somewhere the other day someone had a seven year old Apple and it runs OSX just fine. Try that with a PC and Micro shit!
Jesus . . . 1 PC and 2 macs at home!!! . . . get a life!!
Apple just continues to slip down the slope. Market share gets smaller and smaller. Obviously Apple has a serious problem with its product mix and is too slow to bring out newer, faster, cheaper computers.
The eMac is a dog, iMac sales are in the toilet….and I�m waiting for a faster dual G5.
Spillover effect of ipod purchases will be a teeny-tiny amount on sales (my daughter has an ipod and uses it with her windows pc) and any sales would be to people that were already planning on buying a mac.
Time for apple to bring out some new ideas in its computer product mix.
Humm.. well this is a positive news for Apple. Analyst actually had a descent thing to say about Apple computers. People take what you can get.
“if Apple made computesr to the same low quality standards as the PC assemblers, their market share would go way up because people would have to buy a new one much more often or when a new OS is rolled out.” – 1hunglo
I am afraid not. Apple will be synonym with crap and the media will kill them. IT people will have a new ammunition to slight Apple. MS drones will continue to buy Windows. Non-partisan/new users will think that the much-argued-about quality of Macs are lies.
Hey Wisenheimer 2 (no relation), how can you say that Apple doesn’t put out good new ideas in its product mixes? Look at some of the recent hardware & software that Apple is creating. The G5 are rocking, Panther is the best OS out there, light years ahead of any flavor of Windows. iLife 4 has some great apps for $49!!! The price point comparisons pretty close, despite what Joe Mc sez.
The problem is that people are sheep. I buy what my company buys. I buy what everyone else buys. I don’t think for myself. I don’t shop and find that there really IS software for the Mac. Baaaaaah.
So, Apple’s problem is not products. It’s not price. It’s perception. Get people to actually look at their products and they may buy. So, the iPod helps in that respect. As does the Apple Store, located in your nearby mall.
Now, along the same lines, if they put out a good ad or 2, maybe they can get things moving even faster!
My 2 cents….
Don’t forget.
You have to keep replacing or upgrading the PC’s. While, Macs continue to work.
That is why Apple’s market share is so low. If Apple made a disposable product which needed to be replaced or updated every year, then it’s market share would be significantly higher.
Nobody,
You are correct, I say the market share would increase but they would go down the tubes like all the other PC makers these days. I was being facetious.
like Al says
The lack of understanding of Apple products is in no small measure due to lack of marketing…ask why it is that Dell uses full page ads in newspapera with lots of content, and Apple not only does not use this medium but prefers high priced tv advertising because it is classy, i.e. is image advertising. As for substance, forget it. This is why the general public do not appreciate the superiority of the operating system, features such as .Mac and on and on and on. Why not, for once, put some detail in the newspaper, spell out the advantages. Put some comparative articles there, such as recent ones that independently describe superior security, worm freedom day when you buy a Mac. But do we really want to deprive the sheep of their worms? I can see the theme now: No worms in your Apple!
Jimbo if you read my post VERY carefully you will note that I did not offer an opinion about price, but rather an opinion about other’s opinions about price. I am trying to avoid the same old arguement. If you imagine that pc’s and macs are priced closely, that is fine. I think the fact that imac sales were down 25% in fourth quarter is a refection of what others feel about price.
With that, I think my original point about iPod vs. Mac sales stands. One is not going to lead to much improvement in the other. Imagine what you like, but I don’t know of any facts that can make me conclude otherwise. And, of course, we can always wait and see.
And yeah, a good ad or 2 would help. How can apple lose to that stupid butterfly?????
I just worry that Apple’s not doing enough to combat the perception that Macs are “weird” and don’t work with everything.
I had a “phone rage” experience last night. I was trying to register with my health insurance company’s online service, but was having problems. I tried using IE, but still couldn’t register. I called their help line. The woman walked me through this and that, and finally asked “are you using Internet Explorer”? I said “Yes, I’m using Internet Explorer,” and before I could stop myself, added “for Mac.”
I knew what I’d done, but it was too late. It was like a switch had been flipped in that woman’s head. “Oh, we don’t support Mac.” I couldn’t get a thing out of her. I tried explaining to her that a browser was a browser, but nothing was penetrating the skull. She suggested that I use a friend’s computer. How’s that for service, huh?
After I nearly broke my receiver in half hanging up the phone, I dug out my PC laptop, plugged it into my DSL, and tried to register again. I got the same error! Well, no @#$%ing DUH! It was just a simple JavaScript form! It had nothing to do with whether I was using a Mac or a PC.
“Oh, we don’t support Mac.”
If I had lied, and pretended to be using a PC, 99-100% of her help would have applied to me.
This can’t help the switching campaign, this perception that, if you buy a Mac, you can look forward to being left high-and-dry by every help desk in the nation. Apple really should address this. They should have a campaign to get sites to (officially) support the Macintosh. Show these idiots what good customers we are, how much we make in a year. Maybe then they wouldn’t program their help desk drones to turn their brains off when they hear “Mac”.
I see your point Joe. We do agree that it is in the perception. You may be right. Folks buy iPods because the media screams that they are good. The media is not too vocal about Macs not getting all these viruses, so sleepy ol’ Joe U.S. Citizen continues on his merry way, buying what the sheep buy.
<RANT>Not to pick on us US folks much but geez, all these bubbas driving around in pickups proclaiming theirs to be the best, with a picture of Calvin peeing on the other guy’s logo. Hell no, I look around and know which pickup is best for me. But I’m gonna buy what everyone else is buying when it comes to PCs. </RANT>
Oops! Sorry Joe Mc, I was not attempting to slam you when I said “Joe US Citizen”. I was merely using Joe like everyone else. Hope you didn’t take that wrong!!!
James Evans – Well the PC got relegated to my son’s room so for playing Finding Nemo etc and for my wife to do college stuff that is not Mac compatible. The 2nd mac is old and slow, but kept as a backup machine. It’s not like they’re networked or anything.
I do do some freelance stuff from home, so they’re not just sad geek toys (though they are that to an extent!)
The average person probably uses their computer to surf the web, write email, print out photos, write a letter and maybe play a game or two.
Their under $1,000 including monitor PC running Windows XP suits them fine. They have no reason to switch. I got a mac and windows computers, both do the job, both work fine – one cost about a $1,000 less than the other.
All the people whining & grumbling on Mac news sites about how Windows sucks seem to have them working in a different environment (perhaps work or school with lots of users) than the home user. Maybe with more users Windows has lots of problems, but my windoze pc and all the neighbors and friends and relatives with a newer computer running XP have nary a problem and see no reason to buy a Porsche-priced computer when a Ford-priced one will do.
That is the problem that Apple has to beat.
vernosaurus, you can buy a mac that surfs the web, writes emails, prints out photos and plays a game or two for less than $1,000.
Does windows really work “just fine”? Ever heard of MyDoom-f or go or whatever’s out now?
Better check around more because I know several people personally who are fed up with windows and want to buy a mac next time around.
Also just look at David Coursey’s recent column, http://reviews-zdnet.com.com/AnchorDesk/4520-7297_16-5122766.html “When Windows won’t work, it’s time for a Mac.” 3 windows machines down, with nothing left to do but reinstall windows, all the patches, and all your apps again. Pain, pain, pain.
Vernosaurus, you’re right.
We may wish it weren’t so, but it is. Personally I feel that it would be really great if Mac got to ten percent of market (maybe fifteen percent of userbase). Stable, profitable (it already is), but also pretty much immune. Fifty percent ain’t going to happen: fifteen just might….eventually.
It may be in Apple’s interest to stay where it is. MacOsX is great. XP is acceptable for 80% of people. To cut into the difference Apple must innovate and improve. To maintain the margin MS must not alienate. Each must react. It is possibly zero sum. For Apple to really gain MS must fall apart. This will happen via either the killer Apple app, but much more likely bilion dollar worm/virus failure. Statistically both are unlikely. Better to be in the (profitable) margins – but waiting to pounce on a total f*** up. Anyway – that’s my slightly drunken take on it. Would anyone on this site be happy if Apple achieved dominance. I suspect it would make many feel a little too mainstream.
LOL Jimbo if my skin weren’t thick I wouldn’t be here. When I buy a new pickup every four years I let the ford chevy and dodge dealers offer for my business. Calvin is pissing on THEM.
vernosauraus nails reality rather closely I think. My experience with windows is kind of like that, good enough, and my take on prices is like he said as well. This site and others have yards of headlines and comment about how windows doesn’t work and is fraught with danger, and there ARE plenty of people ready to throw their pc out the window. However the cheap wintel boxes seem to be operable, and good enough, for millions of people. Rehashing each person’s anecdotal experience with windows crap and apple polish, and vice versa, does not obviate the overwhelming numbers. Nor does blaming the whole thing on fud, in my opinion. There are many here who disagree with that.
I think apple has chosen not to get cheap and compete on price or speed. This is a fine approach that will keep margins up but not make for many new users.
I realise I opened a can when I spoke about speed. G5’s are nice and fast, even when using standard tests instead of apple’s optimised set. HOwever, the sub $1000 market is very obviously wintel’s right now, and dont think the difference between 3 and 4 digits doesn’t matter.
Has anybody noticed how much Apple’s market share has slid since the OS X changeover? Apple says they are selling a lot of Macs to people who’ve never used them before in the Apple Stores, and I believe them. Problem is, they’re losing even more traditional Mac users who no longer see a significant UI advantage to Windows, and have found that switching to Windows is actually cheaper than switching to OS X. Then there’s the vast majority of Mac users like me who cling to OS 9, and won’t buy a new Mac until OS X is at least as intuitive and consistent as the Mac always used to be.
cesman pontificates:
“I know several people personally who are fed up with windows and want to buy a mac next time around.”
Keep repeating it over and over to yourself and wonder why they are still owning and buying windows computers. (Bet you own one, too.) Why is apple market share dropping if so many of the people you know are fed up with windows? They talk big, but remain Windowed.
And to Lee – your observation is right on.
Many OS9 owners are saying if I have to switch to a totally new OS (OSX or XP) it is much less risk as far as damage to the pocket book to go XP than OSX. Plus all their neighbors and friends have XP and it is working fine for them.
Well a good note, quite a few Mac based teams are in the top 100 Folding@home stats. We are outnumbered of course, but our dedication to our platform clearly shows.
If you want to join the worldwide Folding effort against disease and do your part keeping Mac OS X in the eyes of the world!
Join US!
Here in Australia, the general public don’t get a chance to learn about Macs or have their predudices removed because Apple run their company like a secret society. New users come by word of mouth from existing users. I have never seen a tv ad or a cinema ad for Apple. If people knew the product, perhaps they might buy it. It would be good if Apple here actually spent some money on an advertising dept and got some basic advice on selling
If OS-X hadn’t come along, I’d have switched to Wintel. I wouldn’t have tried OS-X unless a friend of mine had noticed I was posting from a mac (he checked the headers!) and told me to try OS-X, that it was a huge improvement.
It took a little while to get peripheral support, but my scanner worked well in classic, so that was fine.
I’d take OS-9 over 95 or 98, but my experience of NT/2Kpro at work was that it was more stable than OS-9 and almost as useable most of the time. Basically Apple had lost the lead against the pro windows OS. OS-X just blows it away though. It’s not the hardware, it’s the software.
Until I got my G5, I had the choice of a 400MHz G4 running OS-X (no quartz extreme) or a 1.2GHz AMD running 98, which was bought for gaming. I’d always choose the G4 even though it was slower simply because it was nicer to use and more stable.
My experience with OS X has been great. I hung out on OS 9 until Jaguar and then got a Tibook. It takes a little getting used to and doesn’t “feel” as intuitive at first but that is because all of your ituits cut their teeth on the old OS. I would predict that after you get used to OS X you will prefer it. I know I do. It is more stable. I feel for the people still on OS 9. No iLife. They are missing some of the best innovation Apple has had ever.
I’m with Hywel and Jack on this one. OS X blows OS 9 away IMO. I honestly thought that some of the stuff in OS X was stuff I’d never use, read: bloatware, but I was way wrong. Most of the stuff I thought I’d never use is now part of my regular routine. Last night I switched from Entourage to Mail after seeing all kinds of freakish activity while trying to read my mail. It was easy to change. My cousin runs a Mac shop in Madison, WI and we’ve talked about whether or not they should switch. My strong recommendation was “YES, do it yesterday!” If OS 9 users are worried about their pocketbooks re: an OS switch, OS X is the obvious choice to me. If nothing else, no viruses to wipe out my Word and Excel files. XP does work fine for people who are used to Windoze. I personally find it pretty annoying. Why use an OS that was designed by Playskool (that’s what it looks like anyway).
but when i am on the internet using netscape to read the macdailynews website it works and looks the same no matter what OS I use…so what does it matter if I spend less to get a XP�d computer? i spend all my computer time in programs, not fiddling in the OS and how it looks.
The little time I spend on a home pc is spent fixing someone else’s computer. Every trip to my grandma’s has a few hours of repair work going (XP home edition). My in-laws want to know when I can get to their computer now, after spending most of Labor Day weekend (beginning of Sept. in the US) trying to clear out all the crap they let get in the way of performance, and, oh yeah, viruses, they had lots of those too. Sure, virus protection isn’t that difficult, but you have to do it first. A lot of home users think they’re immune because they’re not on a network. Why do you think these viruses spread? Most companies have proper virus protection, these things are being spread primarily by home users, IMHO. Some people know enough about computers to be able to have a windoze computer that works well for them, but a LOT of people don’t.