“Ahead of earnings, GBH Insights’ Daniel Ives sees 42 million iPhones sold, and no big surprises — but predicts the real story is what Apple forecasts for 2019 demand,” Stephen Silver reports for AppleInsider. “Ives predicts that Apple will announced that it sold 42 million iPhones in the third quarter, and predicted ‘no major surprises’ in regard to sales numbers or gross margins. Ives sees Apple’s forecasts about the 2019 iPhone demand, as well services numbers, the ‘main event’ of Apple’s earnings announcement on Tuesday.”
“‘In terms of the quarter, we believe there could be some upside on the all-important services/software front along with ASPs potentially another bright spot and top-line catalyst,’ Ives wrote in the note. ‘In a nutshell, the Street is all focused on the demand trajectory for the September quarter and most importantly into 2019 with the trifecta of next generation iPhones on the horizon and the Street modeling iPhone shipments of roughly 220 million units, which could ultimately prove to be conservative in our opinion given the underlying demand drivers,'” Silver reports. “The analyst maintains a $200 price target and the rating of “highly attractive” for Apple’s stock. ”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Q418 guidance is all Ives et al. will get and they can extrapolate “2019 iPhone demand” from that to their hearts’ content. Since Apple’s fiscal Q418 will end around the end of September, analysts may be able to get a feel for iPhone launch dates(s) or lack thereof. Other than that, good luck, as Apple will not provide guidance beyond next quarter.
I’m with Ives. My model indicates 224.444 Million units sold during FY2019.
And yes it is possible to forecast the following year’s activity with a degree of accuracy (+/- 1%).