“Apple Watch can’t fail,” Andy Faust writes for WatchAware. “Can. Not. Fail.”
“There are several different individual contingencies that make up this reality, and they’re each compelling enough,” Faust writes. “I’ve written about the lot of them before, but it’s come to my attention that most readers gloss over the good bits when an essay is a meandering thousand words or more. So, bullet points!”
The way I see it, here are Apple Watch’s possible outcomes, in order of likelihood from most to least:
• Apple Watch is Apple’s number three product
• Apple Watch is the next Apple TV
• Apple Watch becomes the standard fitness wearable
• Apple Watch redefines the home medical industry
• Apple Watch is discontinued sooner than expected
• Apple Watch surpasses iPad in popularity
• Apple Watch is the next iPhone
“What happens if Apple Watch is a wipe out? Wearables die. All of them. Forever (or, at the very least, for a very long time),” Faust writes. “Apple will have effectively forced the entire tech world to double down on the smartphone, where iPhone is the gold standard (and growing)… Apple Watch can’t fail. And Apple can’t lose.”
Each of the bullet points explained here.
MacDailyNews Take: Faust underestimates Apple Watch.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan K.” for the heads up.]
I do agree, that it can’t fail. With all those iPhones out there, and all the fans, it can’t possibly fail. What are there… one billion iPhones? 500 million? Even if 10% buy, it’s a market win.
I’ve said this in another post. The Apple branding is so strong, people ask if my Moto360 is an Apple Watch. Never mind that it preceded it by seven months.
When fans go to the ballpark, they buy a lot of T-Shirts.
Your moto-what??
Since Apple doesn’t use the term, you know, my Moto iWatch.
If it’s such a failure why do you still have to wait 5-7 days for delivery of a 42mm Space Gray WATCH SPORT? Demand still exceeds supply. Supply that’s been ramping up since March. Plus demand is only going to accelerate in the fourth quarter.⌚️😱
Make that 10-12 days til delivery. As of July 12, 2015
Apple watch is geek wear. It is a nerdy little computer strapped to one’s wrist. Soon enough, after this period of initial excitement, Apple watch will be seen as passé, and worse–an object of scorn. Watch and see.
Yes, its a little geeky. My wife does not wear hers in the evening. However, its very useful and I’m very happy with mine. Large scale adoption will occur when Apple offers updated and sleeker models. Apple does not need to (and will never) please everyone with version 1 hardware. My first iPhone was the 3S. I think people are over-reacting by writing off the category of wearables based on Apple watch V1.
My contention is there is a specific strategy behind the watch – to drive down the price of the stock for the buyback. And possibly give Tim Cook a retirement exit strategy, taking one for the team. Then.. when the stock is in the low 90 dollar range, they unleash the TV or buy IBM or something and it starts going up again… after they’ve bought back enough shares. Trade volume is something those Wall Street fellers like.
What are your thoughts about the moon landings?
I definitely do not want what you’re smokin.
Aliens put a probe up his butt
You=clueless.
There will be a convergence of four factors related to Apple Watch. Release of newest iPhone models, with Apple Watch prominently displayed. Release of WatchOS 2, which makes the Apple Watch experience even better (especially for “non-geek” owners). Significant ramp up in production capacity, making Apple Watch fully “in stock” at all Apple Stores. Holiday shopping, the first season for Apple Watch.
Apple is waiting for this convergence, and then do a huge marketing push for Apple Watch. Everything up to that point has been “dress rehearsal,” where Apple works out issues (such as quality control and component supply) and uncertainty (such as percentage of each watch model and band choice to produce and package).
Right now the Apple Watch is an iPhone accessory. Remove the requirement of an iPhone, and instead allow an Apple watch to be paired/managed with any IOS device, e.g. ipod touch, ipad with a data plan etc,.. and then your potential customer base wont just be iphone users with cash to burn.
But Apple will not do that, because Apple wants customers to own BOTH an Apple Watch AND and an iPhone. iPhone is far more profitable than iPod touch or iPad, per unit. Even if the customer opts for the “FREE with contract” option for the iPhone.
The ultimate goal of Apple Watch is not to sell Apple Watch. It is further distinguish the iPhone experience from the Android experience, and thereby sell more iPhones. If it was just about maximizing Apple Watch sales, Apple would have already done what you suggest AND also would have made Apple Watch compatible with Android.
I fully agree and this is the area that nobody seems to appreciate. It’s so linked to the iPhone that Apple should give them away (to iPhone owners, of course). Maybe even sell them at a neutral price point in order to cement the iPhone into stardom.
Forget about the Watch. Apple Music launched one week ago. I had problem playing the Radio from the start. Now Radio is a blank white screen on my iPhone 6 Plus. It is gone; disappeared completely. Is it happening to others?
Only to trolls.
I like this Faust article.
http://watchaware.com/post/13164/the-round-apple-watch-that-should-have-been
The guy is too obsessed with circular body; square does actually work better with a round clock and textual complications in the corners. I agree the icon honeycomb sucks, and I would prefer squarer icons; however, Jony does like circles overmuch: just look how iOS has evolved.
The entire wearables are in an equivalent state of mobile phone in the late 90s. There are many more cycles to go through before we get to where we are with smartphones.
Having said that, the iteration steps will be significantly bigger than what cell phones have gone through, if nothing else due to advancements in sensors, CPUs and most of all, the learning curve from smartphones.
The watch reminds me of the 1st gen iPhone (which I still have in my desk drawer) in terms of overall shape and appeal. Look where we are now with iPhone 6, seven iterations later….
Just more evidence that Tim “the steward” Cook has absolutely no bloody idea wtf he is doing. Hopefully when he goes, he takes Ive with him.
How large a business is it that you run, Joe, that you are so bombastically confident with your opinion?
Waiting, Joe. I’d love to see some backup on how your business wisdom is SOOOOOOOOO far beyond that of Cook and Ive.
Joe is an example of many on our forum: he knows exactly how Apple should be run and that is differently than Tim Cook is running it. Of course, Cook has made Apple the #1 company ever, and Joe has done nothing of merit whatsoever. I think I’m going with Cook’s leadership until Apple falls below about #10.
I just got my 42mm Space Black stainless steel Apple Watch today!
I LOVE IT!
I put it on and headed out for my evening run, and I thought, “I wonder if I can control my playlist from my watch…”
OF COURSE I CAN!
“Eye of the Tiger”, here we go!
Unfortunately, the Apple Watch is “where the puck is going to be”; you don’t realize how useful it is until you use it!
Congrats! Every article about WATCH failure is just a regurgitation of the BIG LIE💥😱⌚️😜🎉
What about the commenters grousing about the Watch as an abject failure, as proof that Ive and Cook should be dismissed? I figure they don’t own Watches, don’t have friends who do, have no sales reports only FUD, and thus are talking trash, nothing more. I’ve done the same with other outfits but learnt not to do it with Apple, who always had more cards up their sleeve than I had ideas. Given enough time, skeptics will come around. How many people today say the iPhone is a bad idea? Zero, that’s how many. In 2007 the experts could not shut up about how bad an idea it was. These same people today are saying, well lightning can’t strike twice. Yeah right. 💤
The Apple watch can’t fail, because it has already succeeded. It’s far and away the best-selling smartwatch that has ever existed, with sales in at least the hundreds of millions of dollars.
If Apple never sells another unit after today, this remains the case.
-jcr
Oh my, how quick we forget history.
“Not even God could sink this ship.”
Or for Douglas Adams and Terry Jones fans, “the ship that cannot possibly go wrong”.
The sales of Apple Watch as reported by Apple are exceeding expectations for every model marketed.
Wait….that has never happened
I agree that the watch can’t fail, and that it’s a Win-Win for Apple..but I do think the watch will be Apple’s 3rd or 4th best selling product, and sell far below MDN expectations..
Can. Not. Fail. Like, one product is the lynchpin of Apple’s success or demise? Does sound a bit melodramatic to me.
Versus M¢: Bob, Zune, Surface, Windows 8, WinPhone and others… They fail repeatedly and their stock goes up. It’s a mysterious world we live in.
Ah, the days of Windows ME…
To paraphrase the new ad campaign, Apple Can’t Fail ’cause Apple can’t fail.😜
Oops. I meant WATCH Can’t Fail ’cause WATCH can’t fail.
I really love my 42mm Space Gray WATCH SPORT inside my black ActionProof.com Bumper from Rome Italy. It’s like I’m sporting a California Designed WATCH SPORT warped in an Italian rubber baby bumper from Rome.😜⌚️😱 A very sexy international look. Black Apple Rubber Band to complete the Jet Black look of my WATCH SPORT masterpiece.👀⌚️😘