“BlackBerry, the technology stock formerly known as Research in Motion, is off almost 30% from its January highs,” Jeff Reeves writes for MarketWatch. “Thus, the million-dollar question for BlackBerry stockholders is whether the company is just pausing for a breather before it continues its ambitious return to smartphone prominence, or whether BBRY was simply a great swing trade to end 2012, and it’s now time to run away screaming.”

“While it’s always difficult to speculate on consumer tech and even more troublesome to plot a course of a very volatile issue like BBRY, I think it’s the latter,” Reeves writes. “Here’s why.”

Why the Z10 won’t save Blackberry:
• Poor initial demand concerns
• Questionable U.S. launch timing
• App troubles
• Wall Street sentiment

Reeves writes, “Based on the fact that I expect continued trouble for BlackBerry and some seasonal softness in the market, it’s possible the stock could fall another 15% to 20% in a matter of months. Should the launch data be ugly, heck, we could get that in just a few sessions after the company reports earnings at the end of March.”

Read more in the full article here.