“While I’ve a lot of respect for IDC’s ability to identify key market trends, especially in the Enterprise IT market but I’m not convinced they have their finger on the pulse of the Apple iPad market nor Apple’s iOS strategy,” Crawford writes. “It appears that IDC has consistently under-estimated the iPad market since its launch and their recent forecasts seem to follow that pattern.”
Crawford writes, “Based on the historical sales growth and the launch of the new iPad it is hard to believe that Apple will sell less than 60MM units in 2012… I’m willing to wager my 2012 estimates of iPad will be closer to the mark than the IDC forecasts. For the record I predict Apple will sell over 1MM units on March 16th. It will sell close to 10MM new iPad units within the first 30 days of launch as it rolls out t in 37 countries and in 2012 the total sales of iPads will be in excess of 90MM.”
Much more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: What we wrote, in part, on Wednesday regarding the IDC report: No mention of Windows 8 tablets and their effect on the market. The wrong iPad entry-level price. Seemingly no weight given to potential patent infringement litigation outcomes. Another random estimate of Kindle Fire unit shipments. No mention of fragmentation and a significant case of AppLack™ on Android tablets.
There are simply too many mistakes and errors of omission to take this IDC report seriously.
IDC: Android tablets will overtake Apple’s iPad in worldwide market share by 2015 – March 14, 2012