“Needham & Co.’s Charlie Wolf this morning reiterated a Buy rating on shares of Apple (AAPL) and raised his price target to $620 from $540 after revising upward his value estimate for the iPad and Mac businesses,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.
“Writes Wolf, the introduction of Amazon.com’s (AMZN) “Kindle Fire” tablet last fall boosted the overall ‘media tablet market’ growth rate, in fact much more than he’d expected for the category,” Ray reports. “But that overall acceleration in tablets will redound to the benefit of the iPad, which, he writes, ‘has launched a massive attack on the business market,’ and in turn the Mac, given that the ‘halo effect’ of the iPad ‘has, in turn, translated into an increase in our forecast of Mac sales, which is also invading the business market.'”
“Wolf expects Apple will continue to best tablets based on Google’s (GOOG) “Android” operating system in the enterprise market because Apple has the tools required for business,” Ray reports. “Wolf cites The Diffusion of Innovations, by Everett Rodgers, who wrote about the explosion in sales of hybrid corn seeds in the 1920s. The point: adoption of technology accelerates ‘once the innovation enters the mainstream,’ tracing out an ‘S curve.'” Wolf models iPad sales of 62 million units this year, and 94 million next year, even as market share slips from 85% in 2011 to 80% this year and 75% next year. By 2012 [sic. We think he means 2014], Apple may be shipping 211 million iPads, he writes, and have 50% of the market.”
Read more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
That’s actually an old analogy but accurate nonetheless.
I’m sure it is because they don’t want to be seen as overly bullish on any one product. But there is no way iP_ad’s share of the market dips below 80%.
Apple has too big of a lead, and the patents to protect it, the buying power that no other has, resulting in pricing pressure on the cheap copies to a point where they can’t make enough profit to mount a serious challenge.
Ummm, the article says:
“… “Wolf cites The Diffusion of Innovations, by Everett Rodgers, who wrote about the explosion in sales of hybrid corn seeds in the 1920s….”
It will grow even faster if Apple releases that rumored 7.85″ model. Please let it be true.
iPad will grow even faster with the realease of additional 11 to 20 inch models, not 7 inchers.
The Mac and the iPad will coalesce and will include even larger iPads. We will be able to use them upright on a stand, flat, on an easel or drafting table , in the lap etc; think of a larger iPad that can run all iOS apps as well as Mac apps. Use it however you like, and it’s also an Apple TV and large monitor. Perfect for the consumer, the artist and architect, students and all businesses.
That change could really blow the doors off, to the extent that any doors currently remain. At that point the so call competitors may have to throw in the towel and start making shoes and cosmetics if they expect to turn a profit. Get your Samsung copycat running shoes.
You don’t have to go to Dekalb IL to figure that one out.
I moved from Dekalb when I found out they don’t allow you to own pigs inside the city limits.
“50% of the market?”
Good luck with that–try 80% if not higher, even in 2014.
Looking at the article’s comments are great. One talks about how Win8 will destroy Apple, it is great for a laugh. It is true that not including MS in the equation is shortsighted, they will have an effect, one that could even help Apple. He/she claims that a MS tablet will cost $300.00. If someone could make a tablet with a full Android OS and make a profit it would have been done by now. It gets even better.