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J.P. Morgan: ‘We are not impressed with Kindle Fire’

Friday, September 30, 2011 · 3:33 pm · 40 Comments

“Amazon won’t be getting any accolades for its new Fire tablet from J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz,” John Paczkowski reports for AllThingsD.

“Moskowitz is decidedly unimpressed. In his view, the Fire isn’t going to suddenly transform Amazon into the No. 2 tablet maker behind Apple, despite its disruptive pricing,” Paczkowski reports. ‘We are not impressed with Kindle Fire,’ Moskowitz said in a research note to clients… ‘In our view, Kindle Fire’s low price point speaks to how there is much lacking in the device. At $199, we argue that the price point is not going to afford most users a tablet-experience, which is a problem if Amazon wants to become a major tablet vendor.’”

Read more in the full article here.

Categories: News

Tags: Amazon, JP Morgan, Kindle Fire

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Comment Feed

40 Comments

Spark

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:41 pm · Reply

It’s a ridiculous sales point to say the Kindle Fire is half the price of the iPad; somehow implying Amazon is delivering an iPad-like device at an amazing price. Journalists are doing consumers no favors when they conflate the two products. The Fire is glorified ebook reader with some media playback capability—a minor subset of the iPad’s capabilities. If you have an iPad and don’t want to take it to the beach, get a Kindle by all means. But if you are going to get just one tablet, you need to spring the extra couple hundred bucks for the iPad.
- davewrite
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:58 pm · Reply
  
  a agree, the mainstream press keeps calling it a ‘ iPad for half the price.
- dinjin201
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:12 pm · Reply
  
  I made this point the day Fire was announced. It’s not a tablet, it’s a media consumption device. Not only is it so totally limited to playback, but its limited to playback of AMAZON’S content.
  
  the iPad is a totally viable computer replacement, and allows you to create content, not just consume it. Thus, it is a real tablet.
- Derek Currie
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:21 pm · Reply
  
  I just tossed MDN this article link:
  Amazon tablet costs $209.63 to make, IHS estimates
  
  Apparently the perception is that the only way to ‘compete’ with Apple in this lame market is to cheat. Have fun with that Amazon. You’re only hurting yourself and the ‘Other Pad’ market shares, not Apple’s. Sorry!
- auramac
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 6:51 pm · Reply
  
  I don’t trust Wall Street, analysts, pundits, or rumors. Money doesn’t talk, it swears, and BS requires but the most basic of all detectors- your gut.
Ballmer's left nut

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:47 pm · Reply

The Fire, although priced at half the price of an iPad, is in reality not a tablet in the true sense of the word but a glorified ebook reader. So a direct comparison isn’t valid. The Fire should more properly be compared to the Barnes & Noble Nook Color or as an iteration of Amazon’s other Kindle products.

And so I think people who demand the level of functionality the iPad offers in terms of being a truer version of an all encompassing tablet will not willingly consider the purchase of a Fire, irrespective of its price. I for one wouldn’t want to give up on the flexibility of the iPad, its universe of applications, and most importantly a screen that offers a true browsing experience not to mention watching high definition movies on a 10″ screen and reading books too. Plus I genuinely like iTunes and so wouldn’t dream of exchanging that for Amazon’s cloud service as backup and syncing podcasts and playlists.
dude mcfarland

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:52 pm · Reply

Yeah lets listen to wallstreet some more.

The kindle fire is doomed… just like house prices were never going to drop and the investment packages jp was selling right before the crash were safe and sound!

These people lost all cedibility years ago don’t listen to them now!
- fire meets water
  
  Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 6:48 pm · Reply
  
  Well, why isn’t the Fire doomed?
  
  All the other $200 and less Android tablets have failed. The ones with 7 inch screens have failed at every price point. Why will the Fire be a success?
  
  Because you can use it to buy shit from Amazon? Yeah… You can use any tablet or app phone to do that.
  
  It’s just another low priced Android tablet. I declare it DOA.
Joe Stone

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:54 pm · Reply

I guess I must disagree with you Spark. You need to buy the tablet that works for you. If your needs are content consumption and what the Fire offers works for you, why spend extra money on an iPad (and I own an iPad, iMac, MBA, and virtually one of every iPod ever made)? The smaller size and cheaper price at the expense of power will be more than enough for a lot of people. I personally won’t pick one up, but I think people here are vastly underestimating how many people will – I expect this thing to sell very well.
- omalansky
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:08 pm · Reply
  
  Many people who don’t need a car buy a bicycle instead. This doesn’t make the bicycle a competitor of the car. For sure, many people who don’t need or want the iPad’s capabilities will consider the Amazon tablet. The point is that the Amazon device is being ballyhooed as an iPad at half the price. Nothing could be further from the truth.
- DRMSSDB
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:20 pm · Reply
  
  But overall, except for Spark’s close, you are pretty much on common ground. Fire and iPad are different classes of tablet. I do not think you disagree his central point of the futility of comparing the prices…
  
  I think you are correct that it will sell well. However, as most of the other commentators are getting at, it will not be at the expense of iPad market share. They are being purchased by two different groups of consumers and not competing.
  - Rick
    
    Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:28 pm · Reply
    
    I’m not so sure that the two aren’t competing really. And I think perhaps you’re naive to think that the Kindle Fire won’t impact iPad sales in the least. Is it an iPad killer? Of course not! But take me as an example — I’ve got 4 iPhones in my house, a MacBook, a MacMini, two iPod Touchs, a Windows netbook, two Android phones, and numerous last-gen iPods. Do I need an iPad to really get work done on or to take pictures? No, not really. My other devices handle those chores just fine. But I really would like a tablet to surf on the couch and something to take with me on the road for media consumption. I’ve been thinking seriously about getting an iPad to fill this need, but have been hesitant to plunk down $500. Also, I can’t bring myself to plunk down $400 for a second rate Android tablet, when an iPad is only $100 more. But for me, Amazon’s offering is very appealing. As a consumption device this should work just great. And at $200 it’s almost an impulse buy. I’m actually excited to get one!
    
    Now, back to my point. Would I have sprung for an iPad this Christmas? Yeah, probably so. But now, will I jump on a Kindle Fire instead? Yup. Perhaps the experience will make me want a full-featured tablet like the iPad. And perhaps it will be all I need or want. At this point I don’t know. But a $200 jump into tablet land is a lot easier entry point than $500. Will this result in the lost sale of an iPad? Yup, at least in the short term. So you can say all you want about the Kindle Fire not being in the same class as an iPad, and you would definitely be right. But to say it won’t take some sales away from the iPad would be mistaken.
    - Applesmack
      
      Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 1:04 am · Reply
      
      Rick I don’t disagree with your general thoughts.
      I think that their will be different groups who may be initially attracted to the Fire. Amazon is a brand known to lots of people.
      
      For those who want a first tablet type device, like you, some will be tempted to get the fire based on price.
      
      Others will be OK with a more limited experience.
      
      Based upon my experience, what I have seen and read, you will not see a migration of iPad owners leaving the iPad and getting a fire.
      
      Peple with money to burn may gift the fire to kids and othes etc.
      
      What you don’t know yet is what the iPad experience is like.
      
      I certainly didn’t fully ” get it” until i got the new iPad. The screen size the amazing apps, the whole eco system come together and make it an addictive experience.
      
      Obviosly my recommendation to anyone faced with the decision would be to go for the iPad.
      
      You may need to have a fling with the fire, but you will likely become an iPad owner in the not too distant future.
      - botoncandy
        
        Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 2:51 am · Reply
        
        “I certainly didn’t fully ” get it” until i got the new iPad…”
        This.
        A friend was showing me his Acer tablet – and he loves it. It works fine for him. But it really did not compare to my iPad.
        
        Little things, like opening the lid and instant iPad wakeup – compared to the Acer having to boot up, or oil smudges all over the Acer tablet when viewing pix, compared to the gorgeous, crisp iPad screen. Again, it works for my friend, but it so made me appreciate the extra couple bucks I spent to get an iPad – it’s just a gorgeous, beautifully built device, and the competitors I’ve seen really don’t stack up.
    - MacDaKnife
      
      Sunday, October 2, 2011 - 6:10 am · Reply
      
      Rick a first Gen. iPad 1 on Apple’s web site is $300, has twice the screen size, it a true multitouch not a two finger piece of junk, has twice the ram, access to a half million apps.
      
      Somebody is not well informed about their options when they settle for a Kindle to save a few dollars.
      
      Mac
davewrite

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:05 pm · Reply

I’m a big Apple fan but I have a grudging admiration for Bezos, he reminds me of the huckster marketeers like Barnum and ‘Honest’ Ed. Bezos. Still he is making a big gamble, the B&W kindles sold a lot of ebooks but that’s what people buy the those kindles for since they are useless for web-surfing.

but if people buy color Kindles to web surf and not read (readers like the B&W’s e -ink) and not buy so many apps as they are crippled , Bezos might be in trouble as he’s subsidized the price. If people don’t buy books or apps, the more Kindle Fires sold there more money he might lose. Big gamble. Maintaining a high end OS and supporting hardware and software for users is not cheap — Google hardly makes any money off Android.
eldernorm

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:06 pm · Reply

i am a Mac fan but I can see the sales of a cheaper email, web browsing, book reader. If it fills the bill of many PC type users, then great.

If it does not……… oh well.

en
Bizlaw

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:07 pm · Reply

The Fire is a tablet, just not one with all the capabilities of an iPad. For someone who just needs/wants to check email, read books, watch an occasional movie, and surf a little, the Fire may be just fine.

The problem really is that it’s being promoted as a tablet instead of what it really is: an advanced Kindle which is really all about locking people into Amazon’s media services.
Bernd

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:20 pm · Reply

I am afraid the Fire will fly out of the shelf. It will be the only 7″ what sells. One day we all will have to admit that this one time Steve was wrong.

I really would love to have something bigger than the iPhone and smaller than the iPad to read books and magazines what I can held in one hand for a longer time.

A well designed and well crafted 7″ tablet will sell, and even I don’t love Amazon we have to see that they know a lot what their customers want.

Sorry to say this, but sometimes Steve can be wrong as well. The rise of Android would never happened if the iPhone were not locked to many people’s most hated carriers like AT&T in the US or T-Mobile over here in Germany.

So many of my friends would have bought an iPhone if it had been unlocked from day one or at least locked to a carrier of their choice, as we have 4 big carriers here. But only t-mobile had it for years, a carrier nobody likes for a lot of good reasons.

Now my friends have Androids and will not change for the next time. Even if they will do one day, Apple could have sold two of three generations of iPhones more to them.

I am concerned a lot that people will stay with a 7″ Fire because it will be just good enough. Not brilliant like an iPad, but no crap like the first 7″ Samsung.

He, in my dreams Tim Cook will unveil the 7″ iPad next week as the One more thing. Wake up. my boy, wake up.
- davewrite
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:41 pm · Reply
  
  yeah thinking about it maybe Apple should make a 7 inch tab. Although it might not be ‘ideal’ size for a multipurpose device it might serve many people’s needs. I’ve read that doctors and pharmacists (big iPad users) want a smaller device they can pop into their lab coats .
  
  (personally I think also that Steve some years ago might have made a mistake not making a mid sized mac tower. Today the mac mini is pretty powerful but during the Windows Vista era there was an opportunity for macs to make even larger gains with a mid tower — the mac pro is too big and expensive for many and the mini at that time was underpowered. I believe Steve’s comment was that he ‘didn’t like wires sticking out. They were ugly’ and he wanted to concentrate on imacs. I dunno. But Jobs is a genius way smarter than me, maybe concentrating on imacs and building a ‘macs are beautiful’ image help make Apple all those billions… ?)
  - GM
    
    Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:51 pm · Reply
    
    Si. I always thought Steve was wrong on that one. I believe that if Apple made a smaller tablet computer it would sell like hot cakes. If you remember he also said that Apple wouldn’t get into cell phones too. Ahhhhhhhh yeah, ok. Hey, eventually they figured that he was wrong and now Apple makes the very best. Nobody is perfect.
    - tannz
      
      Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:19 pm · Reply
      
      actually all Apple really needs to do is up the screen size on an iPod touch much like they did with the imacs. the iPod market is diminishing anyway, so maybe manufacture an ipod with a couple more inches of screen space and see what happens. really all the fire have over the ipod touch is a couple inches more.
      - GM
        
        Friday, September 30, 2011 - 6:11 pm · Reply
        
        Yes I have read that thought elsewhere and it certainly seems like a possibility. I really believe that they will do something in the smaller device arena. Since it’s Apple they can act like it’s something different than everybody else’s. And it probably will be. Seems like there is a market out there for a smaller device. But Apple doesn’t move quickly just methodically. I’ll bet they have a smaller screen device within a year. Even if the Amazon Fire isn’t a iPad competitor but rather a marketing tool, I can’t see Apple giving it some attention.
        
        GM
        
        Friday, September 30, 2011 - 6:13 pm · Reply
        
        Not giving it attention.
- ken1w
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:10 pm · Reply
  
  Does anyone really believe that iPad will only be offered in one size… forever? A lot of people think the next major change for iPad is to go to a 10-inch “Retina Display.”
  
  I think that such a component will be too expensive, during the next few years. Instead, I think the major display change will be (or should be) for iPad to go to two distinct screen sizes.
  
  8-inch – 1024×768 resolution (same as current iPad). Half the weight of original iPad. About 160 pixels per inch (same as original iPhone screen).
  
  12-inch – 1600×1200 resolution. Same weight as original iPad. Again, about 160 pixels per inch.
  
  The 20% higher pixel density will make things look sharper, without going all the way to “retina” density. Such display components would not be overly expensive.
  
  I think the current 10-inch 1024-768 display was a design “compromise” that made the original iPad possible. Its size barely allowed enough space behind the screen for all the other components (including the 10-hour battery) to fit, and made the original iPad a technically viable product in 2010 (maybe 8-inch would have been preferable). Its reasonable cost (versus a higher resolution component) allowed iPad to be priced at below $500 in 2010, and still be profitable.
  - Applesmack
    
    Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 1:20 am · Reply
    
    I think there will be more sizes. My guess would be current size, 12 to 14 inch and 17 to 21 inches.
    
    The larger screens will be great for art, architecture and design etc.
    
    Along wth the larger sizes will be more of a erger between iOS and OSX.
    - ken1w
      
      Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 2:13 am · Reply
      
      I don’t think it will go beyond 12 inches, because you have to be able hold the tablet with one hand and use the other to touch the screen. If you have to prop it up on a table all the time (and lean forward while sitting) to use it, then it becomes another failed touch-screen desktop computer. And, the larger the screen, the more effort it takes to move your hands and arms (and maybe even your entire upper body), and hold them in awkward positions, to cover the entire screen area. Plus, you hands (and arms) block line of sight to the screen, so you will need to constantly move them to the screen, and off the screen.
      
      People do not want to do that all day long. The keyboard and mouse (or equivalent) have been popular for so long because they are so efficient, especially when the screen is large; wasted effort to do anything on the screen is minimized and body parts never block line of sight to the screen. When the screen is small, touching the screen is efficient because movement to cover the whole screen is relatively small.
      
      iOS is also not ideal for uses where pixel-level precision is vital, so it works against the need for a large screen.
      
      In a few years, I see the iOS lineup as:
      
      4-inch screen (iPhone and iPod touch)
      8-inch screen (smaller iPad)
      12-inch screen (larger iPad)
      (Macs take over for larger screens)
      
      By the time this happens, iOS will have full “resolution independence” as an integral part of the system. Therefore, fragmentation due to different screen resolution will not be an issue. The user can smoothly adjust interface elements to any size that is comfortable (like the Mac OS X Dock), and developers will redesign their apps to take advantage of this capability.
ken1w

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:23 pm · Reply

Amazon’s approach is different. Most of the previous iPad copycats were trying to match iPad, by specs, features, and price. The marketing message was, our product is better than iPad. That was a mistake, because it was very difficult to match iPad’s specs at iPad’s price (and still make a profit). And it was nearly impossible to match iPad’s features, such as the well-stocked App Store.

Amazon’s approach is not to out-do Apple. Apple’s unbeatable tablet “deal” is at $500. Amazon is not going there. Instead, Amazon is trying to provide compelling value at $200. Amazon saw that previous iPad “clones” did not sell very well until the desperation fire sale price went below $200… so that’s where they are starting.

I think Amazon has a good shot of success, because the recent $99 HP TouchPad fire sale showed that there are enough customers who are want a tablet but are unwilling (or unable) to spend $499 to get one. To me, a Kindle Fire at $199 is a better deal than the orphaned never-to-be-updated HP TouchPad.

Amazon is serving to more rapidly increase the size of the overall “tablet market,” by attracting the “low end” customers. That should help Apple; Kindle Fire will be “training” more consumers to be tablet users. Once comfortable with using tablets, many of them will later upgrade to an iPad. Amazon should not mind either, because those iPad users will continue to use Amazon’s services to buy content; that’s why the Kindle hardware exists in the first place. Does Amazon really care what device is being used to buy their content?

Overall, I think this situation is a win-win for Apple and Amazon.
- omalansky
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:33 pm · Reply
  
  I watched Jeff Bezos’s Amazon Fire presentation. He definitely took the opportunity to put down the iPad, which was a big mistake. When Steve Jobs introduced the first iPad, he didn’t put down the Kindle. He praised Amazon as a trailblazer. If Jeff Bezos keeps trash-talking Apple to sell his pathetic toy tablet, Apple will bury him.
Steve

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:39 pm · Reply

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kindle Fire sell well. If nothing else, it’s a light weight color ebook reader for a very low price. If Amazon does get traction though, don’t be surprised to see Apple go after them legally.

That brings my next point. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Amazon shopping around for WebOS. If for nothing else, for the IP protection. Also, the Kindle interface is different enough from other Android products that it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Amazon to switch out the OS from behind the scenes with nobody noticing the difference. The only issue would be the catalog of available apps.
steve h.

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 4:49 pm · Reply

Kindle Fire sounds like a new category. I’ll call it a Feature Reader. There’s plenty of room for it.
vsp

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:36 pm · Reply

I heard every Tom, Dick and Harry that the Kindle Fire will sell very well. Let’s me be the only contrarian: Amazon will be burnt by Fire that it wished it could never have played with fire.
Buster

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:39 pm · Reply

What is the big deal. Let the media and Amazon call it an iPad killer. Let them say that it is an iPad at half the cost.

Guess how much time it will take for the reviews to get around that it is not an iPad. Think of those poor customers who purchase it expecting an iPad and find out they have been rooked.

This approach is doomed to failure and potential loss of credibility for Amazon. They should have billed it for what it truly is.
BT Hathaway

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:50 pm · Reply

So many people want to see the Fire as a “tablet” and that’s not how it will get used.

It will take over a significant portion of Steve Job’s “third screen” concept which he originally applied to the iPad.

The Fire is a consumption screen and at three for the price of one (iPad ) it will be very appealing to many people. And if I am not mistaken, many Fire users will own multiple copies and Amazon will sell lots of new content. They just need to keep their servers running smoothly and probably make it easy for libraries to buy them by the case load.

In a year, they will be everywhere.
Foris

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 8:44 pm · Reply

Fire will be a success, though unlikely at a scale being predicted by some. The unfortunate thing about the “success” of limited devices like this (and other wannabes like Android phones, netbooks etc), is that they blind people to the much greater possibilities and function of iPad, iPhone. A horse and cart will get you there – so will a Ferrari, but the experience is worlds apart…
dddd

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 8:59 pm · Reply

The AndyPad (if it ever comes to the US) is a Kindle Fire killer. So is any low cost android tablet that is open versus closed. Amazon is starting a low price android tablet war that might backfire, as low cost android tablets with Cameras, SD Cards, USB ports, HDMI out, etc. are released in the underpowered 7 inch form factor with more features and open to more android stores than the Kindle Fire.
omalansky

Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 2:12 am · Reply

Like many others, I would like the see a smaller, lighter iPad. For me, the bottom line is that I’m glad that Amazon is making a smaller tablet. They’re blazing the trail once again. But Amazon is no Apple, and the Fire is no iPad. That’s the bottom line for anyone who appreciates the high standards that Apple products epitomize.
asdf

Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 11:44 am · Reply

Listen to all of you…

Steve Jobs was not wrong. 7″ tablets are tweeners. Nobody needs or wants them. Too many tradeoffs. Nook is a fad.

4″ jumbo smartphones like the iPhone 5 will effectively remove all doubt from people’s minds: 7″ tablets really are too small to compete with these smartphones.

Nobody needs this. Fire will end up dead. Amazon will out a 10″ model, it’ll cost $299, and will suck compared to iPad.

RIP Amazon.. Too many tradeoffs. Nook is a fad.. 7″ tablets are tweeners. Nobody needs or wants them. Too many tradeoffs. Nook is a fad.

4″ jumbo smartphones like the iPhone 5 will effectively remove all doubt from people’s minds: 7″ tablets really are too small to compete with these smartphones.

Nobody needs this. Fire will end up dead. Amazon will out a 10″ model, it’ll cost $299, and will suck compared to iPad.

RIP Amazon.. Too many tradeoffs. Nook is a fad.
- omalansky
  
  Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 12:32 pm · Reply
  
  I don’t buy the “too many tradeoffs” argument in relation to smaller tablets in general. Considering the amazing things that people are doing with iPhones, there’s no good reason to make such a sweeping pronouncement. As for Steve Jobs, he is well-known for publically dissing ideas that later found their way into Apple products.
  
  Amazon’s 7″ tablet is one product. Whether it succeeds or fails, the tablet market is wide open for innovation. It’s not like the iPad is the end-all and be-all of tablet design. Apple is not going to sit around polishing the iPad’s chrome trim ring. Stay tuned for the next exciting episode.
- fire meets water
  
  Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 7:08 pm · Reply
  
  “RIP Amazon.. ”
  
  Well, more like RIP Fire. It will be a flop but that’s hardly enough to kill Amazon. They’ll still be a very successful online retailer even after the Fire is put out(har har).