“This jibes with something I’ve been thinking about Apple: if it could do the Mac all over again, it would use the iPhone OS,” Segan writes. “Don’t think of the iPad as a big iPod touch. Think of it, rather, as the new Mac—a new mode of home-based computing that Apple hopes will bubble up through its product line.”
“If that market explodes and Apple takes its focus away from the Mac, the Mac platform very well might wither in favor of this new, smooth, controlled experience,” Segan writes. “The MacBook and Mac Mini lines will succumb first, as they are lower-cost and appeal mostly to consumers. Mac Pros will last the longest, as professionals tend to require a wide range of peculiar hardware and accessories.”
“The biggest difference between a Mac and an iPad isn’t ARM vs. X86, or multitouch vs. mouse. Both devices are running modern *NIX-based operating systems… [and] the new iWork for the iPad is proof that Mac-like productivity apps and ARM-based platforms can go well together,” Segan writes. “But the Mac is an open platform, and the iPad is closed.”
Segan writes, “As someone who’s owned a Mac since 1986, and as someone who likes the vibrancy and innovation that open platforms bring to the marketplace, I’ll admit I’m fearful, uncertain, and doubtful. Apple has fallen in love with end-to-end experiences, and I don’t want anyone other than me to have the last word on what I can install on my own home computer.”
There’s a lot more explanation in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: We were surprised that Segan’s article didn’t include this quote:
If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it’s worth — and get busy on the next great thing. – Steve Jobs, Fortune Magazine, February 19, 1996
If Apple decides to get out of the Mac building market, I hope that will at least license out the Mac OS to other hardware companies
How about that; the author used FUD in his article.
Well, they can keep developing and “milking” it for what, 50 years?
Cross-develop both in a coordinated way?
Who is this guy who thinks in such a limited way?
What he’s talking about is decades away. And just because iPad and other devices end up generating the lion’s share if Apple’s revenue doesn’t mean the Mac’s going away. Why should it? There will always be people who need more control and options than a more restrictive platform can provide. There’s plenty of room in the marketplace for both.
Final Cut Pro, 3D imaging software, scientific apps all require desktop machines with horsepower. Why do these guys just pull stuff out of their ass?
The iPad could easily surpass the Mac in terms of revenue and unit sales, especially if Apple figures out how to sell people iPads without needing a PC to sync into!
The vast majority of people don’t even need the power and flexibility (re: complexity) of a Mac mini, much less an iMac or a Mac Pro tower. Sure, there will always be power users who need that power for video, audio, website design, app creation, etc. but most people don’t do that stuff beyond watching a movie or posting a iPhone movie of their kids on Facebook.
Reading the quote from Steve Jobs one could easily assume the next big thing was and IS Mac OS X.
He totally doesn’t get the iPad. The iPad will no more eliminate the ‘real’ computer than automatic transmission eliminated the gearshift. Yes, most people buy automatic transmission cars but those who have need or want more can still buy standard cars. In fact, outside of North America, standard is still the way to go.
Yeah, I’m going to Photoshop on an iPad with my finger. I don’t think so.
Until Apple develops a way to update the iPhone OS through the “cloud” (namely wirelessly), you’ll still need a desktop or laptop system to plug into. And most people are going to still want a computer system to run programs that won’t run on the iPad: photo/video editing, major financial management, and the like. Plus the need for external storage for media you cycle on/off the iPad (if you’re traveling with the kids, UP for them; if you travel alone, Inglourious Basterds for you).
I see the iPad less as a substitute and more of a supplement…something to use when I don’t want to drag along my MacBook when I just have a few minor needs.
That quote: “If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it’s worth — and get busy on the next great thing” is very significant. So are these:
“I skate to where the puck is going, not to where it’s been.” –Jobs channelling Gretzsky, and:
“The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago.”
–Said in the same breath as what MDN quoted, it means that the ubiquitous PC defined by a desktop OS, using a mouse and physical keyboard is really seen by Apple as a place where the puck has been.
Think about these 3 quotes any time anyone suggests Apple should buy Adobe or a media company or set up a virtual mobile phone network or make TVs anything else that is so yesterday .
I’ve heard logical thinking is a useful skill. It comes in handy so I’m told…
I trust that touch-tech will indeed migrate up the product line.
After using an iPhone, I find myself stroking almost everything around and being mildly surprised if it doesn’t respond.
Mind you, I don’t have that problem with the girlfriend, who seems quite pleased by this new me
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Um, don’t you need a computer, perhaps a Mac, to sync with the iPad?
Actually, he concealed it by spelling it out.
Actually, the article makes perfect sense and is exactly in line with the MDN’s Jobs quote (of which the author of the article is likely oblivious).
Mac isn’t dead and isn’t dying just yet. However, there is no doubt that OS X can only continue to live so long. Whether it will be three, five , seven or ten more years, we can’t tell now. But it would be misguided to expect that people will be still running desktop applications on a desktop computer using some newer incarnation of Mac OS X. Remember, this isn’t Microsoft. Apple had never cared about the ability to run legacy code (think about all the cold-turkey transitions, from 68k to PPC chips; from System 9 to OS X; from PPC to Intel; from 32bit to 64bit…). Where MS continues to support applications that were written while Reagan was still the US President, Apple turns on a dime and moves ahead.
The new iPhone OS (likely to be renamed Apple Mobile OS, or something similar) has all the necessary underpinning of a robust OS. If the mobile iWork demonstrates the efficiency of a desktop-type application on a touch-based mobile device, Apple will be in a position to get tens of millions of people to learn and get thoroughly comfortable with the new (multi)touch UI paradigm before they migrate it to a full desktop. It will be just the way they did it with the iPhone -> iPad move (millions of people already know how to use iPad, even though nobody has seen one yet). By the time of iPad’s first birthday, we should already have plenty of third-party desktop-type applications on the iPad. Once users are familiar with navigating the UI and using desktop-class apps on a mobile device, Apple will deliver a large-screen, powerful desktop device with the same OS. With their own powerful software packages (FCP studio, Logic studio, Aperture), other developers would quickly see the road map. This should bring Adobe on board, and with Adobe, everyone else will follow.
I can easily see this as a way to “the next big thing”. Meanwhile, they may as well “milk the Macintosh for all its worth”…
Yes. Apple is going to do away with their Mac production just because this moron says it shall be so. Apple is selling more Macs than ever. I highly doubt that Apple is going to cut its own jugular.
Don’t you know that you need a Mac to develop iPhone and iPad Apps?
“Yeah, I’m going to Photoshop on an iPad with my finger. I don’t think so”
Try to think beyond the here and now. Charles H. Duell (Commissioner, U.S. patent office, 1899) never really said “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” but those who say the iPad can’t replace a desktop machine are limiting their thinking.
The iPad will evolve. It’ll get more powerful year after year until ultimately, yes, it will render and shade 3D models in realtime.
Developers (not just Apple) will figure out ways to do Photoshoplike things on the iPad in ways we can’t even imagine.
Once it can bluetooth with 30 inch screens and other peripherals as well as it’s own keyboard, it will offer a true alternative. Only consumer demand will decide whether it totally replaces desktops.
My upgrade path has changed with the iPad
I was planning on a MacBook Pro, with a MDP moniter, (when it was upgraded to the 27″ formatt). Now I plan on a 27″ iMac with an iPad for travel.
I think rhe iPad may hurt the Macbook line and help the iMac
If Apple does not kill the Mac, their competition will, eventually.
Rule of surviving.
The Mac already “kills” the PC. If the iPad can kill the Mac then what will the iPad do to the PC and the rest? This is evolution and something has to kill the obsolete.
The future is’nt going to arrive until we let go of the past.
Steve Jobs is just brilliant. Unbelieveably brilliant.
No, no, no.
The Mac isn’t going anywhere. I’m in publishing, and I can tell you that I will go apeshit if I’m one day forced to design content with Windows and then disperse it with an iPad.
Both have their strong suits and limitations. How about looking at it as Jobs presented it: phone/touch —– iPad —— Notebooks/desktops
Each with their own reason for existing.
The premise of that article is beyond moronic.
Most people will still need a full/open computer. Printing, peripherals, complicated software that requires a mouse, video, photography, design… The list of tasks that won’t be conducive to a tablet is endless. Might as well be an OS X machine to do those tasks.
This isn’t taking focus away from Macs, OS X, or “open” computers… This is just going to give people an option they never had before. Different tools for different jobs instead of always being forced to use the same tool, regardless of task.
Oh, and the author REALLY needs to read this article:
http://speirs.org/blog/2010/1/29/future-shock.html
See, this is the reason why none of US are running Apple, and Steve Jobs is. Everyone here is still thinking about yesterday or today.
The iPad hasn’t even come out yet. The first version of it. And even the first version already promises to deliver incredible computing quality to consumers. It is also obvious that many “vertical” markets are already salivating over the device (medical, construction, real estate…).
You can rest assured, by the first anniversary, there will be thousands of desktop-class apps for the iPad (including databases, image, video, audio, text manipulation and editing, and anything a regular laptop can do).
Let’s not forget; iBook G4 had the same screen resolution as the iPad and much slower CPU, graphic chip and disk space. Yet it could run Final Cut Pro 4 (which supported HD), as well as Adobe CS (InDesign, Photoshop, Illustrator…). So, hardware muscle is NOT the issue. Developers will quickly figure this out. Just watch.
never gonna happen…
Riiiiight. Apple sells millions of Mac per year at a high margin. Certainly they’ll kill that off right away/