Robert X. Cringely reviews his predictions from last year – he got nine of 15 predictions correct for a 60 percent average with more (Apple “iPhone” and “iTV” products) possiblly to come true just a little late (next week) – and then takes on 2007:
Among Cringely’s predictions for 2007:
• Apple releases iTV, a bunch of flat-panel MacTV’s that contain Mac Minis.
• Apple settles with Burst.com and takes a license.
• Apple drops Akamai for a different edge-serving content delivery network, possibly Google or homegrown.
• Sony is in such difficulty that Microsoft is discussing internally how to help Sony from going under, since that would create a raft of antitrust problems for Redmond. I am not making this up.
• Windows Vista SP1 ships in June despite the fact that Vista structurally shouldn’t require service packs. Except it will.
• Zune 2.0 appears, isn’t brown, but still nobody buys it.
There’s much more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]
Related article:
Cringely’s 2006 predictions for Apple and why many products were held back from Macworld – January 13, 2006
Regarding Akamai– would the purchase of the data center allow Apple to distribute its own content, as well? If so, this would mean that the only thing Apple doesn’t control is the content production. Hmmm.
Except for the little fact that Steve controls some little cartoon company, I think they’re called ‘Disney’.
i dont understand the comment about if sony went under it would create more anti-trust problems for microsoft.
Yeah, but Disney only supplies so much. They’re helping to lead the way for iTunes, but Apple doesn’t control production, etc. Steve may wield more power in time, but…
Cringley is not a real person, stop writing as if he is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_X_Cringely
Another year, another round of useless Cringely predictions. Ah, to be able to throw darts for a living…
Cringley is some kind of genius or soothsayer or maybe he has contacts the rest of the prognosticators should envy. Still a 60% average is a little week this year. Maybe he needs to curb his enthusiasm. Just a tad.
Apple would need to recreate Akamai’s network of computers not to mention its specialized software that is the basis of Akamai’s existence, and it ain’t going to happen for all sorts of obvious reasons. So on this evidence alone, Cringley’s predictions are disinfomedictions.
Even with the new data center Apple probably wouldn’t want to drop akamai. But just as multiple companies make macbooks for Apple, ism’t it possibly that multiple distributors will be used including their own in house facilities. Apple are going to need a lot of resouces for video distribution to work.
@R – True indeed. One thing Disney has been very useful for is getting the snowball rolling. I bet we’ll see on Tuesday how much of an avalanche it causes.
Even with the pre iTV announcement, Cringely still thinks Apple will be manufacturing flat panel tv’s with Mac mini’s built into them..
The Real Robert X. Cringely…
Okay, if you haven’t read that WIKI story, do so. I had no idea. It’s like he’s the Dread Pirate Roberts!
I predict Cringley’s head will remain stuck up his ass.
Am I remembering correctly that Apple has a substantial investment in Akamai?
I, along with many others who use this pen name, am Robert X. Cringley, named after a browbeaten character in an old comic strip, There Oughta Be a Law.
I am a liar because I said I have a Phd. So fucking what? Deal with it, lowlifes, especially you who never watch PBS and never contribute money during telethons for my salary.
I am important, and PBS looks much better after my fake name on a business card than Phd would, anyway. And I can hide all my so-called breaches of ethics behind PBS’s so-called superior ethical behavior, and what a joke that is.
Week after week I prove you can fool all the people all the time because I know everything. And you’re a bunch of suckers.
There are many facts not in evidence. You are probably not aware for example that Google has been quietly building MASSIVE data centers (server farms) around the nation AND that a company owned by the Sabey Corporation is also building the same with the largest capacity in the world.
The Akamai edge network will continue but it’s no longer the only choice available. It’s highly likely that Apple will in fact work with Google and offer a media distribution system.
The data centers are located all over the country and in fact around the world in strategic locations. This will effectively rival broadcast television signals in the years ahead.
Whatever became of Mac the Knife, aka The Naked Mole Rat? Now there was a real Mac columnist!
MDN word; men, as in just what The NMR liked.
David: Cringley is some kind of genius or soothsayer or maybe he has contacts the rest of the prognosticators should envy.
I hope this is a sarcasm. Let’s look at some of his “correct” predictions:
4) More bad news for Sun. That’s true. [Ermm, that’s obvious. Sun hasn’t got any good news in years]
5) IBM customers revolt. It is happening slower than makes sense, but yes, they are revolting. True. [Which customers and which IBM division, revolting in what sense? Do we see customers abandon IBM?]
6) More Vista delay. I’m going to claim this one because the Vista that’s just appearing was delayed twice in 2006 alone and is a shadow of what it was intended to be. True. [Anyone knows this. Obvious]
7) PS3 is in trouble as is Howard Stringer. This is all true. [Anyone knows this. Obvious]
9) Media Center PCs still won’t take off as they try to compete with cheaper embedded devices. True. [Anyone knows this. Obvious]
Cringley either makes predictions that pretty much everyone can see or vague enough that you can’t say it’s correct or wrong.
A Vista service pack by June? Microsloth can’t get one out that fast! Try January 2008.
What’s the difference between an iMac and a large flat screen TV that contains a Mac mini ?
I suppose you could argue that if the screen is very large and the computational abilities are somewhat limited, it’s not a proper iMac, but they’re still pretty similar in many ways.
“IBM customers are revolting.”
I’ll say.
-c
“Zune 2.0 appears, isn’t brown, but still nobody buys it.”
Haha, umm… wait. Are you serious? Omg I think he’s serious…? Hey ‘Cringely’, learn to read the news. Of course the idea of the Zune was a complete failure. But when people started geting their hands on it they realized the omfgnubpwnage potential of the Zune. I can’t believe you havn’t heard yet. GJ…
Bob X Cringely is a bit of dark horse…
Any nay-sayers have the guts to predict the year ahead any detail?
I’ll be surprised if there is a “yes” in the house.
@ss: Yes, Apple bought a 15% stake in Akamai in 1999, but then slowly sold it off between 2000 and 2003 or so.
I don’t think they own much, if any, Akamai stock now. (Too bad for them! It’s around $55 a share, up from under a dollar two years ago!)
This is kind of like the Apple/Microsoft story. Everyone still says MS owns part of Apple. Not true. MS sold off those non-voting shares years and years ago. (pre2k, I think)
And, yeah, Akamai owns a lot of strongly defended patents developed by its ex-MIT research team. Anyone attempting to build a content distribution network would have a hard time coming even close to their performance.
That doesn’t mean, of course, that they couldn’t do something “good enough” on their own. The iTunes Store isn’t really a big infrastructure problem to solve, and people would probably not mind the extra few miliseconds of latency before getting their streaming samples.
As it is, Apple maintains their own back-end transaction servers, which are the source of all the down time in iTMS history. The other stuff is just bits on a wire.