“We’re replacing our computers for the wrong reasons, and I can only conclude that the PC industry, itself, is dying. The end is coming,” Robert X. Cringely writes for PBS.
“While the industry is trying mightily to get us to embrace video, for the most part today’s apps are yesterday’s apps and that’s the problem. Today, we replace our personal computers when they break or when they get so sludged-up with spyware and viruses that it is easier to start from scratch than to cure the disease,” Cringely writes. “This is a profound trend. People who replace their PC to run new software are active consumers who are likely to buy more software and more computers in turn. They are indicators of a successful industry. People who replace their PC to sidestep the Hell of modern computer sludge aren’t happy and are less likely to buy another computer in the future. Those people — most people these days — are actively looking for a platform shift.”
“There is an inevitable fallout coming… That’s why Intel is at war with Microsoft… Microsoft has known for a long time that the PC as a platform is dying [and] Intel, meanwhile, is not a part of Microsoft’s calculations. Redmond has chosen IBM as its xBox hardware partner, so Intel must plot its revenge,” Cringley writes. “The only way Intel can do that is by beating Microsoft on content delivery and networking, and by giving Microsoft something to worry about on the desktop, which was the basis of my original Apple/Intel theory. A theory I continue to believe, by the way.”
“So where Intel had been Microsoft’s lap dog on so many previous technical initiatives, I’m sure we’ll see some divergence, like Intel’s partnering in the new Apple movie download service, which someone told me this week will be called iVideo,” Cringley writes. “If iVideo is the correct name, it implies that the new application will become part of Apple’s iLife suite along with iMovie, iTunes and other applications. This makes good sense even for Intel. Why? Because at this point it is more important to Intel for iVideo to be a success than it is for iVideo to use lots of Intel chips. The population of broadband-equipped OS X computers in the U.S. is around 10 million, and that’s a good number for launching a new service and avoiding problems should it be literally TOO popular. The point is to make iVideo a hit, first with Mac users and with impatent Windows users who’ll go out and buy a Mac Mini just to be able to run the app (that’s the old model for upgrading, right?). Mac Minis quietly appeared last weekend at Best Buy and Target, for sale alongside the iPods. This is in preparation for the iVideo launch, which will presumably come in September or October, certainly before the xBox November launch. Just as there was with iTunes, there will eventually be an iVideo for Windows, probably in February.”
Much more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Cringely’s staying on-topic. It’s important to read what he has to write as elements of truth are often contained within; not everything always comes true exactly as he lays it all out, but enough ends up actually happening that it’s usually worth the read. Who is Robert X. Cringely? More info here.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Cringely: Apple working on HD movie download service and Video iPod – July 15, 2005
Cringley: Apple and Intel to merge; Steve Jobs finally beats Bill Gates – June 09, 2005
Apple’s shift to Intel really all about Hollywood, owning the living room, and Transitive – June 05, 2005
Cringely: This week changed the world of high tech forever – May 13, 2005
Cringely: Apple prepping Video iTunes, Video iPod, and setting stage for iPod clones – May 06, 2005
Cringely: the full story about Apple Mac mini’s purpose has not yet been told – January 21, 2005
Apple should make Windows users wait longer than February, to max out Mac sales. It should also pitch the mini as the ultimate iPod accessory for those who don’t own a computer.
First question = content.
Could someone please explain to me the appeal here? I use Netflix for movies. It could not possibly be any simpler. I don’t watch much television, but i hear that Tivo is quite good. Who is the target market for downloadable movies and television content? How much would you pay for downloadable episodes of the Simpsons, when they are on TV 6 times a day? Also, until they release some way to bridge the gap between your mac and your TV, who is going to watch this content on a 15″ computer monitor when you also own a 30″ tv screen (which displays the same content, either for free through the air, or which you are already paying for in your cable bill)?
Second question = portability.
Who routinely has a couple of hours of free time on the go to watch the above content? Commuters are, i reckon, the most obvious candidates here, but who else? The iPod market is so huge because it (the iPod) is compatible with just about any activity which doesn’t require use of your ears. The portable iVideo market is just not obviously that big.
I agree with Mike– except to say that if there is a new implementation that makes video somehow easier or more compelling to use in some new way, I might be in.
We used to say, “Who wants to be available all the time?” as cell phones were just starting to grow in popularity, only to find out that, well, almost everyone wantes to be available all the time.
It’s an important issue that video requires one’s attentional focus much more than music or cellphones, but if something new comes out that’s pretty cool, I might be game…
Mike K. , You’re are the target. If you like netflix, wouldn’t you rather enjoy being able to download the movie and watch it instead of waiting for i to get to you in the mail , plus wait for it to get back to netflix before they ship another one.
I am the perfect target for this market.
I don’t have a TV. (I don’t have cable.) I rent DVDs. I have a 23″ display.
I’m gonna be all over iVideo!
Problem is it might take almost as long to download a HiDef full-feature movie than it will to wait 36 hours for a Netflix disc.
Intel is not at war with Microsoft. If they were at war Windows would not be running on Intel’s processors. Yes, the PPC XBox may look like incentive for Intel to go to Apple but I think it was Apple that went to Intel for their products. IBM is a disappointment to Apple so they are going to Intel. x86 Macs will not out-sell Windows-only PCs but they will make Apple the best selling PC vendor.
Even if the XBox 360 is modified and sold as a desktop, I doubt it would compare well with conventional PCs. There would not be much software for it because it is PPC and all Windows applications would have to be ported. XBox PC might not be upgradable and if there is one thing PC users love to do, it is upgrading. XBox PC would be more trouble for MS than it is worth.
if you have a cable modem or DSL of 768 or better, you can go to your Mac, to the iVideo store, and before you are done popping your popcorn.
I mean… that is, if it was really coming… how would I know?
In the ancient past when all TV’s had CRT’s for displaying the image it made sense to sit far away from the TV set and buy bigger and bigger TV’s.
Nowadays, when you can buy cheap LCD TV’s or LCD monitors for cable and satellite boxes, it doesn’t matter how big the screen is, as long as the pixel count is the same. You can have a lower pixel count on a 30″ TV than on a 17″ widescreen moniter. You just sit closer to the smaller screen.
A 20″ high pixel widescreen moniter at a computer moniter distance with good headphones and surround sound is great for watching movies and HDTV.
I think people you need a bit of lateral thinking here. We view video the way we do (by which I mean any visual media) because it has been dictated that way since the beginning. A simple comparison is the lack of enthusiasm for horseless carraiges at first because hundreds of years of conditioning had affected our view. The idea of video on demand is much more sensible than having to wait (and or record) content as the suppliers/broadcasters dictate, its just we don’t recognise that yet. It will take time but we will and then we will be amazed that we used to view content in the way we now feel is perfectly natural.
Pardon me for writing this w/o any references, but I read somewhere that Broadband internet speed is going to be faster in the future (around 2006-2007), so that may have a huge impact on d/l movies.
I, for one, am definately for iVideo. The ability to show movies made on FCP w/o a DVD player would be really neat.
If anyone else knows about the internet getting faster, or if I am wrong, please let me know.
Peace out my Mac bros and sis.
check out this Infomercial from Apple from the early 90’s. It shows a concept laptop/PDA type of device that has a screen that can be folded.
They can easily use this for an iPod that opens up like a laptop to reveal a bigger screen where u can watch movies…just an idea.
Here, check it out:
http://homepage.mac.com/ericestrada/Movies/iMovieTheater53.html
They’re basicly going to do what cable networks(mainly comcast) are doing with on demand. Only the movies won’t be free. They’ll probably be availible earlier than DVD, but might also cost a little more. I have sbc which is at 1.2 mbps on average, but heard comcast is already at 6 mbps. That’s good for regular movies, but to download HD movies at a reasonable time, I think we need about 10-15 mbps. It won’t be long until we’re there.
iVideo would not just be about movies. Video is a medium. Movies are just one form. Think about eductational content. High def travel content. Think about indie type films that can never be distributed by other means. All of it as easily obtained as an iTune.
As an iTune user, I have been exposed to music and artist I would never have otherwise been.
The reason most people can’t see the need now is because no one yet invisions the new ways in which the technology will be used. No one except maybe S. Jobs.
Think of your television as having one channel. On Sunday night, you go through a list of content and you decide was programming you want on that one channel for the entire week. Whenever you turn on the television, it is always playing what you want it to, yet can be preempted any time. Just one possibility.
Here in the Washington, DC area there is a new Verizon fiber-optic service called FIOS that goes up to 30Mbps (w/ 5Mbps upload) ($200). That’s pretty pricey for home users but there is also a 15Mbps package (w/ 2Mbps upload) for only $50! I believe a few other cities are getting this now, too.
Also don’t forget H.264!
The problem with downloading video is that many ISPs have limits on monthly bandwidth, which would be exceeded by just one high quality movie.
I think Eric24601 is on to something both in terms of format and content. Steve has never been about passive activity–hates TV, I believe, and the software that Apple has is all about interaction and doing things. Even the iPod allows you to do things even while listening to it.
So the knowledge navigator, in which iMovie, iCalc, iCal, word processing, spreadsheets calculations and graphing, quicktime, iSight, Keynote are effortlessly available and and seamlessly integrated is absolutely where SJ wants to go with a “Media Center” as opposed to the passive windows device envisioned by BG.
Apple is investigating the flexible screen technology and has been working on alternate forms of input (inkwell) as well so the form factor that is seen in the commercial is not too far fetched as well.
I believe that Apple will come out with a display device measuring about 5 by 7 inches (hitting the niche between iPod screens and the 12 in iBook) which will allow an iPod to slot in its back. the iPod will be balanced by a rechargeable battery which also will slot into the back of the screen. The front will be all screen except, perhaps, a click wheel, and the screen will be a touchscreen in order to navigate like the man did in the infomercial.
It will be wi-fi enabled and will be sold standalone or bundled with the airport express. The high end iMac mini will also have a slot for an iPod to plug in directly, btw.
Rollout will be: iMac minis, iVideo (or whatever it is called–Apple may by out “iFlicks” or “iFlix” just to have the name as it is closer to iTunes (iVideo is closer to iMusic and it’s not named that) and then just before xmas SJ will roll out the screen device. That will keep us all occupied and the stock price up while the transition to Intel happens.
imho.
I think iVideo would be great, I’m not sure if I would buy into it, but its still a good concept. Right now I own some DVDs, rent from Netflix, and DL fansubbed anime. I’d like to get a PSP to play video on the go. The thing is, once you get a bunch of videos it becomes less about how fast you can DL them and more about how to store them all. Current base HD configurations tend to me on the small side for storing a lot of video. I just bought my iMac less than a year ago and it came with a 80GB HD, which I upgraded to 160GB and bought a 320GB external Lacie. An iBook, mini or anything else more than a year old would have problems storing a bunch of iVideo downloads.
Certainly Apple could offer a more affordable version of this:
http://www.kaleidescape.com/
The basic system starts at $27000!! It can store 160 DVDs which you have to provide!
dent, arthur dent: I sure hope you’re correct!
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Having iVideo on your iPod would be like having a good book along
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with you to read whenever you felt the urge. It might be a decent
added extra for iPod owners. I don’t see people viewing an entire
movie at once from such a small screen though. A few minutes here
and there. The bulk of movies will be viewed on nothing less than a
12″ screen. Even that would be a stretch.
CT ======]———— Conditioning?
regarding iTunes and the legal downloads…
I have downloaded lots of movies in the past.. music? sure..
but you know what.. i’ve been buying from iTunes recently..
there really is a premium i’m willing to pay for reliable, clean, high quality downloads from bands that maybe aren’t as popular with the AcquisitionX/Limewire set.
And I still think $10 for an album with 17 songs (11 of them are 4/5 star) is an awesome deal!
Oh yeah.. and.. convenient and fast..
So the video thing?
Well, if they can appreciate the download speeds, which they can, and make it like a rental service where you pay, maybe 2 bucks to watch a movie or something.. i’m SO THERE.
think about it.. once you know the plot of a movie, you’re not gonna watch is 30 times unless it’s EXCELLENT.. most movies are great the first time, and then ho hum after that.. it’s the nature of storytelling/irony.
Good stuff guys.. the iTunes model gets the thumbs up
I can totally see how Intel could be “at war” with Microsoft. Do you really think Intel could not make a better chip than the P4? The Pentium is stuck with legacy x86 code because Mirosoft cannot build Mac OS X. They won’t adopt *nix as a core fore their OS and they seem incapable of developing the Hardware and software abstraction layers that have allowed Apple to migrate hardware platforms twice now and software platforms as with OS9 to OS10.
Apple doesn’t need to switch the Mac to Intel just to have Intel-based video iPods. I think IBM may have been able to build DRM into the PPC platform. They built the 970 because of Apple and no one else.
IBM can’t seem to make a laptop chip, so Apple make the correct decision there. I DO see Intel changing their processor platform though. Heck AMD could even do it if it were compelling enough for Apple to run OS X on an AMD platform.
Apple’s software is the hardware enabler. I think Intel is excited about that. Microsoft has been a huge barrier to innovation for the entire industry. It is time for Microsoft to evolve or die. I think Apple will quickly overtake Microsoft as top OS maker and everyone will be happy about it. Backward compatibility along with embacing future innovation is a huge enabler. We’ll all be happy to go along for the ride.
Microsoft is targeting the Xbox to be your the home media center. Microsoft knows it needs a consumer electronics device (Xbox) to win over the mainstream home consumer – the complex Media Center PC has only been “successful” with the fringe Windows first-adopters and gadgeteers; it’s a flop with everyone else due to its complexity. Who powers the Xbox? Not Intel. Even the PC mfrs realize they are on the wrong side of this equation. Sony (Playstation), HP (iPod), and Dell (“willing to sell a Mac”) have all indicated their willingness to compete with Microsoft. (And now Microsoft rumors about buying Creative?!?!)
So Apple will solve the problem of Internet-to-Computer-to-TV – which mike k is right to point out as the deal-breaker. But supposedly Firewire ports are showing up on TVs. I haven’t seen it and question it but the CEA (ce.org) and the Firewire WG (1394ta.org) are reporting this. And Firewire over some sort of 802 wireless (.11n, UWB, WiMax, or something) must be almost here. Again basic news reports don’t give me confidence about this but I can’t see Apple makng this simple without wireless fast enough to bridge this gap. And of course, all of this is coupled with Bonjour for instant finding and connecting.
And the iVideo video-on-demand nature will make TiVo look complex (recording TV is old-fashioned!). Especially if coupled with personalized search – you tell iVideo what you like (or it learns by studying your suggestions). It then automatically finds and downloads the shows/movies overnight (or during the day while you’re at work) for your instant viewing. Watch the 2-minute preview piece of it. If you like it, click okay (1-click), and it’s yours. No waiting or no deciding beforehand – this is way better than recording TV broadcasts!
If this Apple device (including hard drive) costs less than $500, I’m in. I can’t wait.