Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The forecast was reduced from the 2.3% growth in the February forecast, due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending. Growth will remain in low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones.
Despite the increased tensions, the US and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year. China is forecast to grow 3% YoY driven by government subsidies which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android. In contrast, Apple is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, overall economic slowdown, and the ineligibility of a majority of its models for government subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline.
“The US Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted from the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff related price increases,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “Further negative impact was prevented by the unique structure of the US smartphone market, where majority of devices are bought through carriers which help fuel demand by offering robust trade in deals and interest free financing programs. As a result, the forecasted 4% growth in average selling prices of smartphones will have less immediate impact on consumers, especially with many new premium devices launching in the second half of the year.”
“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement. “Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariffs hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.”
MacDailyNews Take: if only we had a nickel for every IDC forecast that failed to materialize.
SEE ALSO:
Apple exposes IDC’s and Gartner’s flawed Mac unit sales estimates – November 3, 2017
IDC and Gartner numbers do not jibe with Apple’s double digit U.S. Mac growth – July 27, 2014
Exposing IDC’s, Gartner’s, and Strategy Analytics’ PC, phone and tablet data on Apple – November 16, 2013
Gartner and IDC trumpet wildly incongruous Mac unit sales estimates – April 11, 2013
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[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
If allowed to trade without government interference, global smartphone sales would trend like any other mature good … at or near population growth rate. Relatively low growth in the expensive parts of the world, and higher in maturing economies. This would be profitable and good for everyone.
Unfortunately, now in the US is a vindictive government that meddles in trade, and is doing everything possible to burn down the global economy. It is ignorant of the fact that natural resources and manufacturing facilities are not uniformly distributed around the globe, and it seems to ignore the fact that reckless debt accumulation has now made the USA beholden to foreign investors who hold enough US treasuries to inflict great economic pain if they chose to do so. The current administration thinks it needs to punish critical trading partners, collapse mutually beneficial supply chains, undermine education needed to compete in future industry, lavish special exemptions for connected friends or voters (agriculture, oil subsidies at record highs while demand is low). Worst of all, the cronies in WA-DC treat corrupt “communist” oligarchies like Russia and middle east dictatorships as good friends while discouraging foreign investment of trustworthy partners like Canada, western Europe, Japan, etc. The very things the right wingers used to warn everyone about has now become their self-fulfilling prophecy.
If an enemy of the USA wished to engineer the economic downfall of the nation, it would use this playbook. I strongly doubt in the upcoming decades that the arrogant right will spend their devalued dollars on US-made electronics when the creditors are circling for your house, car, and whatever else you borrowed in order to flash that fancy wasteful lifestyle you’ve been so proud of. Trump has shown you the way to bankruptcy, and you are following the script. The billionaire oligarchs will be happy to snatch up the foreclosures on the cheap. The plebians are so gullible.